Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 130533 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 904 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The forecast appears on-track at this time. Skies are mostly
clear, winds are calming and dewpoint depressions continue to
decrease. Fog should begin to develop over the next few hours and
thicken thereafter into Tuesday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The snow melt occurring this afternoon across the region brought
some added moisture into the air. Therefore, with this along with
light winds and clear skies under high pressure tonight, expect
areas of fog to form later and remain into Tuesday morning. Many
bufkit soundings show this development with deep layer light winds,
especially across central and north central SD. There also may be
some dense fog. Otherwise, winds will turn to the south for Tuesday
and should remain under 10 mph. Depending on the depth of the fog
with little mixing, it may take awhile for the fog to diminish in
the morning. Therefore, temperatures will be affected with highs
expected to be like today with lower to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The center of surface high pressure will be moving off to the
southeast Tuesday night as south to southwest breezes kick in behind
the high. A southwesterly 925mb jet around 30 to 35 knots looks to
develop Tuesday night over eastern SD, setting the stage for some
downslope winds to develop over the Coteau region. Increased winds
over this area above SuperBlend, using hi-res models that captured
this nicely, such as the ARW.

Models seem to be trending cooler for Wednesday and Thursday, where
previously it had appeared these days would be rather mild. Looks
like we`ll be influenced more by a cool high pressure system to the
north with east or northeasterly low-level flow. 925mb temps
actually dip back below 0C during the day Thursday. Seeing more
widespread 30s showing up in the forecast highs for Wednesday and
Thursday, whereas a few days ago we were seeing more 40s.

The other main issues highlighting the extended period are the
systems for Friday and next Monday. There is still much uncertainty
in track and strength of both these systems and models are bouncing
all over the place. Have therefore stuck to the inherited POP grids
until better agreement shows up in the models.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected most of the night and into
Tuesday. However, locations along and west of the James River could
see some local IFR/MVRF visibilies and cigs with fog late tonight
and early Tuesday morning.




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