Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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486 FXUS63 KFGF 140239 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 939 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - On and off showers with isolated thunder will affect the region through the week and into the weekend. Impacts will be minimal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Shower activity has ended in northwest Minnesota with more activity approaching from the west currently west of a north- south line from Kenmare to Beulah. As elevated instability dissipates with a budding sfc inversion should see any wind threat cease and lightning diminish. Could still see some showers reach the Devils lake area but this would be advection driven from 850-700mb with dry air below likely limiting echos from widely reaching the ground. UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Showers (mostly virga) continue to drift through northwest Minnesota this evening following a shortwave out of southern Manitoba with dry air near the sfc killing any chances for things to reach the ground. Removed the mention of smoke across the area as obs have mostly cleared and AQA has been canceled. Otherwise forecast remains on track with some thunderstorm activity creeping across the MT/ND border. This may approach the western forecast area as early as 2-4am. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery indicates zonal flow aloft with multiple embedded shortwaves headed for the region. Ensemble guidance in good agreement with the general pattern evolution, although uncertainty exists with timing and coverage of precipitation. A low probability for frost across northwest Minnesota tonight, but clouds from current system across southern Manitoba combined with warm air advection should keep min temps in the upper 30s. ...On and off Showers... A few sprinkles across northwest Minnesota this evening as an initial shortwave provides forcing. There is an area of rain across southern Manitoba, but as this forcing propagates southeast it will be moving into a drier environment and is expected to be mostly virga as it crossed the international border. For the remainder of the week - best chances appear to be tonight/Tuesday morning across the Devils Lake basin and Tuesday night into Wednesday across the entire region. Although coverage and timing at any one particular location is uncertain, most locations will experience at least some rain through Wednesday. Embedded thunder anticipated although stronger storms are not expected. For later in the week into the weekend, multiple scenarios exist mainly surrounding strength and track of the upper waves within the zonal flow aloft. This influences duration of showers and QPF amounts - although the probability for severe weather and excessive rainfall is very low, so other than rain interrupting outdoor activities, impacts minimal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR conditions through the period with some thunderstorm activity moving east from the MT/ND border and reaching the DVL area by 10z in the form of showers. Lightning is a low probability with any showers as they reach the area. Winds turning east with occasional gusts to 20 kts in DVL after 06z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...TT