Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
921 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The front is now working into our northwest FA, getting close to
Devils Lake. Not seeing any pcpn along the boundary, but Canadian
radars show some echoes north of Winnipeg. Doubt any of that is
reaching the ground, but it is between observing stations, so
can`t tell for sure. However Winnipeg only has a mid level
ceiling, so it is probably unlikely. High resolution model
guidance has been trending back on any pcpn tonight, so updated
the forecast to only have a minimal chance of light rain in the
Lake of the Woods region.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High resolution models continue to suggest light rain showers moving
through the forecast area from northwest to southeast tonight.
With such dry air at lower levels, rainfall totals are expected to
be a tenth of an inch or less. A cold front will pass through the
area tonight, exiting west central MN early Thursday morning.
Along and behind the front, breezy northwest winds will persist
with gusts up to 25 mph expected to persist through much of
Thursday. Winds will gradually decrease Thursday as the pressure
gradient weakens. move through Wednesday night into early Thursday
as a cold front pushes through from southern Manitoba toward
eastern Minnesota. Behind the front, breezy north winds will
develop for Thursday with gusts to 35 mph. Thursday will be
cooler, with cooler northerly flow affecting daytime heating.
Highs Thursday are expected to reach the 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Thursday night through Saturday...Short wave over southern MAN
Thu evening will move through the area Thu night and early Fri. A
cold front will move through during this period. May have very
light showers in the far northeast zones with the short wave.
Upper level ridge over the western US will shift into the central
Canada and the Northern Plains by Sat. Area should slowly warm up.

Sunday through Wednesday...Upper level ridge continues to shift
east across the area. Piece of an upper level low over the western
US move into southern Canada with warm air moving into the area.
Some instability is expected and so will include a chance for
convection on Mon.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Gusty southwest winds may decrease a little through sundown, but
the next front and wind switch are already moving into northwest
ND. This will bring a wind switch to the north and another push of
gusty winds, mainly by late evening and overnight, and continuing
into Thursday morning. The gusty winds should begin to decrease
through the afternoon.


Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Strong southwest winds will continue through this evening, with
sustained winds in the 20 to 25 mph range and gusts up to 40 mph.
With early evening relative humidity values in the 20 to 30
percent range, a Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for
portions of northeast North Dakota and the northern Red River
Valley until 7 pm. Near critical fire weather conditions remain a
concern for parts of northwest Minnesota this evening as well. A
cold front will pass through the area late tonight, causing winds
to shift from southwest to northwest. Light rain will be possible
with this frontal passage, but rainfall totals are expected to
remain less than a tenth of an inch.


Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Moderate flooding continues along the Goose River at Hillsboro, the
Snake River at Alvarado, and the Red River at Oslo. Water levels
were generally falling across much of the area except for the main
stem Red River from Oslo northward. No significant precipitation is
expected for much of the period.




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