Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Taking a close look at the moisture in the models for tonight,
have added fog to parts of eastern ND and far NW MN late in the
night. Models have moisture returning in the low levels with
southerly flow...along with a strengthening low level inversion.
Hi-res models and NAM Bufr support a chance of fog in the Red
River Valley and west toward the Devils Lake/Valley City areas.
Otherwise, nudged temps up slightly today based on warming trends.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Temperatures will be the main issue for the period.

The quiet pattern continues with surface high pressure to our
northeast and easterly winds bringing in dry air. An upper low
over Kansas and Nebraska today will move into Iowa and Missouri
tonight, with nothing to show for our area except some cirrus
clouds in our south today and some mid level clouds in the
southwest later tonight. With sunshine and the mild airmass over
our area we should recover nicely this afternoon from the single
digits into the 30s and even some low 40s in the east with pine
trees. Tonight will be much the same as it has been the past few
nights with weak high pressure continuing over the area. With the
dry air mass temps will fall off quickly into the single digits
and teens. Think at this point that dry easterly winds will again
keep fog from developing even with plenty of melting going on

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

12Z Sat - 12Z Mon

Upper level ridge over the forecast area on Sat will breakdown
through Mon morning. Short waves will rotate around an upper level
trough over the western US. Upper trough will move out into the
central and southern Plains by Mon morning. Northern portion of the
trough will rotate over southern ALTA and southern SASK. Weak short
wave forecast to move through late Sun may bring light snow to the

Mon - Thu

Long wave trough remains over the West Coast and the northeast US
and de-amplifies through the period.

Split flow is forecast across North America with the northern stream
over southern Canada/northern US and southern stream over the
central and southern states. Pattern breaks down and the flow aloft
becomes progressive

High temperatures were increased a degree or two for Mon and Tue.
high temps for Wed and Thu were increased about a degree from
yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

It appears that there is an increased fog potential exists
tonight. Southerly winds will push warm air and moisture
northward...providing a good environment for fog formation. Have
made small incremental changes downward with visibilities
tonight at DVL, FAR, and GFK. Otherwise, quiet weather expected
during the day. Another chance for fog will exist tomorrow night.




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