Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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716 FXUS64 KOHX 141651 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1151 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Light showers continue across our west and some new showers have developed across our southeast. The main focus of the forecast is this afternoon as we monitor the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The biggest question is will the atmosphere be allowed to destabilize enough for strong convection to happen? Looking to our west, there are pockets of clearing in the clouds, so if that trend continues east behind these ongoing showers, then we`ll likely be able to achieve higher instability. Another question is will enough dry air filter in aloft to increase our lapse rates? Profiles are pretty saturated this morning, so unless more dry air builds in in the mid-levels, this will also hurt strong thunderstorm development. The line of thunderstorms has developed over northern MS and western TN and is moving east- northeast towards ours area. IF we are able to destabilize and lapse rates steepen a bit more to get a good updraft going, storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds and hail. The latest short-term guidance suggests that our atmosphere will destabilize with surface-based instability values near 2000 J/Kg and mid-level instability (for hail potential) near 1500 J/Kg this afternoon. 0-6km shear is still on the low-ish side on most of the new models; between 25-30 kts, but that`s still enough for thunderstorms to work with. Models show mid-level lapse rates reaching 7 C/km or a touch higher, specifically across our southeastern counties. For the wind threat, DCAPE and PWAT values are quite high for this afternoon, lending to the thought of some heavy downpours coming out of the storms, increasing wind potential. In terms of tornado threat, 0-1km storm-relative helicity values are showing at or below 100 ms2/s2, so tornadoes are lower on the list of threats today. I`m hesitant to say the threat is zero because the ingredients are there, even if some are a bit lacking. Regardless, be weather aware this afternoon in the event a warning be issued for your area! Timing of thunderstorm impacts looks to be from 1pm to 7 or 8pm tonight. A cold front is expected to push across the area later tonight, and as the surface low continues to spin out of the area, some scattered showers can be expected to linger into the day Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Shower activity will decrease and things should mostly clear out come Wednesday night. A ridge will quickly build in aloft that will help squeeze our temperatures up into the mid 80s by Thursday and also give us a rain-free day. But as quickly as that ridge moves in, it moves out, and we`ll be on to our next round of unsettled weather Friday and into the weekend. Rainfall amounts this weekend are near 1". Weekend temperatures look to hang right around 80, warming into the mid 80s by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 SHRA/TSRA with MVFR conditions will continue to affect and move across airports this morning, before additional showers and storms with MVFR/IFR conditions arrive this afternoon. All precip will end this evening with dry conditions tonight, but MVFR/IFR cigs/vis will still impact CSV/SRB. South winds up to 10 knots are anticipated through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 62 77 62 / 100 50 60 10 Clarksville 75 60 75 59 / 100 50 50 10 Crossville 72 57 70 57 / 80 100 90 20 Columbia 77 60 77 59 / 90 40 50 10 Cookeville 75 59 71 59 / 90 90 90 20 Jamestown 74 57 71 57 / 90 100 90 20 Lawrenceburg 76 61 76 59 / 90 50 50 10 Murfreesboro 78 61 77 59 / 100 60 70 10 Waverly 76 59 76 58 / 90 40 50 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Shamburger