Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 252030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Rain chances and cloudy conditions will continue through this
evening and then the weather will rapidly improve tonight after
midnight. As of 3pm, the cold front had cleared all of north
central Texas. The upper level low that was centered over central
Kansas this morning has moved rapidly into eastern KS/western MO
this afternoon. To the southwest of us in Central and Southwest
Texas an MCC has developed where instability is much higher than
what we have to work with today. This thunderstorm complex is
expected to stay to our south so our main concern will be just be
some light rain and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through the
late afternoon and early evening hours. Today`s rain has been
light and thunderstorm activity has been limited as we just don`t
have enough moisture or instability to cause any concern for heavy
rain/flooding or severe weather. Rain and clouds will be clearing
out from northwest to southeast tonight as much drier air filters
in behind the upper low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday through next Wednesday/

Thursday will be a nice day as drier post-frontal air fully
invades the region. Temperatures will rebound into the lower 70s
across our north and east, and mid and upper 70s across the
southwestern half of the CWA as lingering low-level cold advection
dwindles.

The cold front parade won`t be over, however, as another reinforcing
shot of drier air should sweep through the area Thursday night
and into Friday morning, aided southward by another energetic mid-
level disturbance. While low and mid-level moisture will have
been effectively driven towards the Gulf coast after today`s
(Wednesday`s) front, large scale ascent afforded by 40-60 m/12
hour height falls should overspread the northern half of the
region as the aformentioned vort max pivots across the Arklatex.
Forecast soundings across our northeastern counties indicate the
potential for a sliver of elevated instability to materialize
between 850-600 mb or so, right under the impinging tropopause
fold. Given our proximity to the cold core of this shortwave
trough axis, we`ll insert some low 20% PoPs north and east of a
roughly Decatur to Canton line. Any precipitation coverage should
be minimal, but extended hi-res guidance does indicate some
potential for isolated convection Thursday evening and into the
early overnight period.

A slight warming trend will commence Friday and through the
weekend with precipitation-free conditions as high pressure rules
the skies. We should see highs nudge back into the lower 80s
across a good chunk of the region by Sunday, but dewpoints in the
50s will keep things feeling comfortable. Initial return flow will
commence on Sunday as the surface ridge slides east of the region.
Stronger southerly breezes are in store on Monday which will begin
to draw 60+ dewpoint air across much of the region. We`ll keep
PoPs below 20% across Central Texas Monday afternoon for now, but
instability may increase sufficiently to result in some showers
and storms embedded within the moisture plume.

On Tuesday, we`ll be turning our attention to broad cyclonic flow
which should begin materializing across the western CONUS with the
potential for several embedded shortwave disturbances to pinwheel
out across the Great Plains during the middle of the week. Timing
differences still exist among the global deterministic guidance,
with the GFS hinting at a lead wave resulting in thunderstorms by
Tuesday afternoon, while the ECMWF holds off on any higher precip
chances until the end of the week with a cold front. Either model
you pick, the large-scale pattern does look like it will
ultimately favor more widespread thunderstorm chances (with a
potential for strong to severe storms), but whether this is on
Tuesday or Wednesday/Thursday remains in question. We`ll continue
to refine this portion of the forecast through the rest of this
week.

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 101 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/
Rain and isolated thunderstorms are moving in a little bit faster
than initially progged this morning so moved the VCTS at KDFW and
other surrounding TAF sites up an hour with a start time of 19Z.
Further to the south shower and thunderstorm chances will linger
a bit longer as the tail end of the upper low takes its time
clearing out to the south so have extended the VCTS at KACT to
02Z. MVFR CIGs will continue to plague KDFW and surrounding TAF
sites through 23Z and then clouds will rapidly decrease with much
drier air filtering on the back side of the upper low. KACT will
continue with VFR conditions for the next couple of hours and
then CIGs will be deteriorating rapidly and MVFR conditions are
expected beginning at 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  74  53  74  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
Waco                47  76  51  75  49 /  40   0   5   0   0
Paris               46  69  51  70  47 /   5   0  20   0   0
Denton              44  74  50  73  47 /   0   0  20   0   0
McKinney            46  71  51  71  47 /   0   0  20   0   0
Dallas              49  75  55  74  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
Terrell             48  73  52  74  49 /  30   0  20   0   0
Corsicana           48  72  52  73  50 /  50   0  10   0   0
Temple              47  76  51  76  50 /  40   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       44  76  49  74  46 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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