Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 231111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds have moved north across all sites except for KABI.
Low clouds are struggling to fill in around the KABI area, so will
only have a mention of SCT MVFR ceilings for now there. South of
KJCT and KSOA, CIGs have dropped into the IFR range, so will also
hold onto the mention of of 800 foot ceilings at KSOA for a few
hours this morning. As temperatures warm, CIGs will rise back into
the MVFR range later this morning. These low clouds should
scatter out from west to east during the mid to late morning
hours. However, it may take into the early afternoon hours for
KBBD and KJCT to finally break out of the low clouds. South to
southwest winds will remain gusty through the early evening hours
tonight before finally diminishing to around 10 knots at most
sites. Generally VFR conditions from late morning/early afternoon
into the overnight hours before another round of low clouds move
in late in the forecast. 20


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

(Today and Tonight)

Expect warmer than normal temperatures again today with gusty
south winds across the entire region. Southerly winds have already
picked up tonight with speeds in the 10 to 20 mph range, and gusts
already as high as 30 mph at Abilene. The upper level ridge axis
will move across the area today, as a shortwave moves through the
central Rocky Mountains. This shortwave is already inducing
pressure falls along the lee of the Rockies, which is causing our
winds to increase in west central Texas. With pressure falls
continuing today, winds will remain gusty out of the south. These
south/southeasterly winds will continue to feed moisture into the
area as well, resulting in low clouds this morning, that may hang
on into the afternoon hours for areas east of a Brownwood to
Junction line. Otherwise, expect skies to clear other than upper
level clouds, and temperatures to warm into the 80s in most areas.
Southeastern counties where clouds remain may struggle to warm
into the 80s. Expect another breezy and muggy night tonight, with
low clouds redeveloping, and lows mainly in the 60s.

(Saturday through Friday)

Significant changes to the weather are expected through the next
7 days as an upper level low pressure system develops across the
western U.S. This system will drop down and strengthen across
Arizona and New Mexico before moving east across Texas. There is
some indication that some strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible on Sunday afternoon and into Monday morning. Primary
threats at this point appear to be large hail and strong winds
followed by heavy rainfall later Sunday night into Monday morning.
Additional severe weather could develop on Tuesday as well. Keep
in mind, as new data rolls in, we will continue to update the
expected threats and include additional details as well.

On a different note, high temperatures in the 90s on Saturday and
Sunday may be near or above record values. Saturday and Sunday in
particular looks to be favorable for a broken, or tied, record in
San Angelo. High temperatures will come close to a record in
Abilene on Sunday.

Otherwise, rain chances look to be plentiful this week beginning
on Sunday afternoon and running through most of the week. The
increased cloud cover and rainfall will help to keep temperatures
down through the week. In fact, additional cooling will result
from a passing cold front by mid week. Then, a bit drier
conditions will return by the end of the week.


Abilene  85  64  89  61 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  86  63  95  59 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  83  62  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
Brownwood  83  62  88  60 /   0   5   5   5
Sweetwater  87  62  90  60 /   0   0   0   5
Ozona       83  61  93  57 /   0   0   0   5



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