Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1104 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 1015 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Storm still exiting northeast Colorado as this time. Some light
snow still falling over Logan and Washington Counties. There is
as a bit of light snow falling along the divide north of I-70.
With upper ridging moving in the precipitation will be ending and
cloudiness will be decreasing. We will adjust GFE grids


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Water vapor imagery showing strong upper low over Western Kansas
this morning and moving east and northeast. Observations showing a
mix of rain and snow over the eastern plains of Colorado with the
main band of heavier precip stretching from far northeast Weld and
down through Western Washington and Eastern Lincoln counties.
Surface temperatures are hovering in the upper and upper 30s and
northwest winds and downslope flow keeping temperatures above
freezing. Surface road temperatures are still in the upper 30s to
mid 40s so much of the rain/snow that is falling is melting.
Overall impact looks low through this morning over the plains and
will cancel the winter weather advisory. Additional snowfall will
be around 1-3 inches, mainly over grassy surfaces.

Across the mountains, there is still some light snowfall up along
the divide but moisture expected to become more shallow as the
morning wears on, and any additional snowfall will be only an inch
or so this morning. Strong and gusty winds will continue to
develop over the mountain passes and foothills as surface gradient
increases and developing mountain top inversion around 750 mb.
Could see some gusts up around 60 mph with some blowing snow over
the passes. These stronger winds will also surface over the urban
corridor and plains during the morning hours with some gusts in
the 30-40 mph possible.

There was some fire weather concerns over Lincoln county this
afternoon with thresholds met with low humidities and gusty winds,
however appears enough precip fell last night to keep fire threat
lower today so no fire weather hilites.

Conditions will improve over the entire area this evening with
diminishing winds on the plains and clearing skies as high
pressure builds in with subsident flow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

SWLY flow aloft will be over the region on Sat ahead of another storm
system. Cross-sections show very little moisture so will keep a
dry fcst in place. At the sfc, low pres will gradually intensify
along the front range thru the aftn with gusty southerly winds
across the plains. As for highs over nern CO, readings will range
from the upper 50s over the far nern plains with lower to mid 60s
Water vapor imagery showing strong upper low over Western Kansas

On Sun an upper level trough will move into the Great Basin in
the morning. By aftn it will become more negatively tilt which will
eventually allow for a closed upper level low to form over srn
CO. This feature is then fcst to move into the TX/OK panhandles by
Sunday night. Meanwhile sfc low pres will intensify over sern CO
thru the day as a cold fnt moves into nern CO by late aftn.

Overall should see favorable mid level ascent move across the
area Sun aftn into Sun night with decent lapse rates.  Snow will
increase in the mtns during the aftn with additional pcpn developing
across the rest of the area by late aftn or early evening.  Low
level winds east of the mtns currently are fcst to be more northerly
so heaviest pcpn across nern CO may end up focusing over the Palmer
Divide.  Soundings show pcpn may quickly change over to snow Sun
evening along the front range and then across the rest of the plains
after midnight.  There will be some potential for heavy snow Sunday
night south of Denver extending towards the Limon area based on the
current track of the upper level low.  Naturally if the actual track
is further north or south that could alter things considerably.

At any rate by Mon morning the upper level low will move eastward
into the cntrl/srn plains.  Thus should see snow gradually end over
the plains and mtns during the morning hours.  Highs across nern CO
will be mainly in the 40`s with gusty winds thru the aftn hours.

On Tue a weak upper level trough in NWLY flow aloft will affect the
area by late aftn into the evening hours.  This feature may bring an
chc of light snow to the mtns.  By Wed an upper level ridge will
develop over the area which will bring dry conditions along with
warmer temperatures.  Looking ahead to Thu, moisture will begin to
increase in SWLY flow aloft, so will mention a slight chc of snow in
the mtns. Across nern CO it will be dry with above normal temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1015 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Most of the models are still showing winds at DIA to become
northwesterly by 18Z. These winds will continue until a bit after
sunset. There will be no ceiling issues.




SHORT TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RJK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.