Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 242122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
322 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Have seen a few thunderstorms develop over southern Lincoln County
and a few more showers over the Continental Divide and Front Range
foothills this afternoon. An upper level ridge continues building
over the state, bringing warmer temperatures and subsident forcing
at mid levels. Thunderstorms over Lincoln and Elbert Counties will
produce brief heavy rain and maybe some hail up to three-quarters
of an inch in diameter. Mountain showers shouldn`t produce much
more than brief rain and gusty winds. Dissipating showers and
clearing skies should be the rule after the sun goes down.

For Thursday, even stronger upper level ridging and warmer
temperatures aloft should be in place over the state. Short range
models do not produce any QPF over the state tomorrow, so will go
with a dry forecast across the forecast area. The gradual warming
trend of the first half of the week will continue tomorrow as high
temperatures climb to the mid and upper 80s across the plains.
Pressure gradients across the forecast area will be light, so
winds are not expected to be a problem.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Friday night into Saturday an upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue tracking east out of the state. Saturday afternoon
and evening isolated storms could from over the northern Colorado
mountains and foothills. Meanwhile, conditions will remain warm
and dry across the plains. Temperatures will be well above average
reaching into the lower 90s in some locations across the eastern

Sunday a trough will progress from the Great Basin Region into
Colorado. A slight cooling trend will begin Sunday and continue into
early next week. Coverage of showers and storms will increase on
Sunday and Monday. Models indicate potential for more abundant QG
ascent Sunday through much of next week. Tuesday through Thursday
there could be isolated showers and storms over the high country
and plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Minimal aviation impacts over the next 24 hours as upper level
ridging and a drying airmass limit the amount of diurnal
convective activity. Isolated showers will develop over the
foothills through about 6 PM, but showers will weaken and
dissipate as they move eastward over the Denver metro area.
Erratic wind gusts from the decaying showers should be all that
local airports see. Skies will be clear overnight with winds
becoming southerly. Stronger ridging and a warmer airmass over the
area Thursday should result in even less shower activity Thursday
afternoon. Any showers that develop will be over the foothills.


Issued at 322 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday late morning
through early evening for South Park, Zone 214. High fire danger
will occur due to warm and dry conditions with wind gusts of 25
to 30 mph.

There will be elevated fire danger over the southern Front Range
Foothills, Zone 216, on Saturday. This area has been kept out of
the watch at this time because the stronger wind gusts should be
confined to the South Park area.


Fire Weather Watch from late Saturday morning through early Saturday
evening for COZ214.



SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Sullivan
FIRE WEATHER...Sullivan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.