Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 200223
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1023 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather arrives Saturday as a cold front moves across the
region with Sunday being a chilly and brisk day. More unsettled
weather is expected on Monday night and Tuesday as a couple of
frontal boundaries cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1020 pm...virga appearing on area radars in the eastern
Great Lakes region as moisture streams northeastward ahead of an
approaching midlevel trough. Area of showers over the lower
Ohio Valley associated with the left entrance region of a strong
upper jet and some 850 to 500 mb positive theta-e advection
will expand northeastward, with the column moistening enough
locally to support showers after 05Z or so. 00Z KALY/KBUF
soundings show lots of dry air in the low levels which will have
to be overcome. Best coverage should be south of I-90. Period
of showers looks brief and light as midlevel moisture decreases
toward the end of the night. A good southerly gradient should
keep temps elevated tonight, have bumped lows up a couple
degrees.

Previous discussion...

For tonight clouds will be on the increase as a cold front drops
into the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will also be on the increase
during the second half of tonight. It will be milder than recent
nights with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

On Saturday...The cold front will sweep through the forecast area
with showers continuing for much of the day. The showers will be
most numerous across the northwestern third of the forecast area
during the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Highs will be
in the mid 40s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Saturday night lake effect rain and snow showers will occur
across mainly across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Some
light accumulations are possible with Old Forge expected to receive
around half an inch of snow accumulation. Lows will be in the mid
20s to mid 30s.

Sunday looks to be a mainly dry but a cool and brisk day as a strong
pressure gradient will be in place across the region behind the
departing surface low and high pressure moving towards the eastern
seaboard. Highs will be in the upper 20s to mid 40s as cold air
advection will be occurring across the region throughout the day on
Sunday.

Sunday night is expected to be dry as a ridge of high pressure will
be across the region. It will be a cold night with lows in the mid
20s to lower 30s.

On Monday expect increasing clouds during the afternoon as a warm
front moves into the eastern Great Lakes region. There will also be
some rain and snow showers across the western Adirondacks where a
half an inch of snow is possible Monday morning. Highs will be in
the upper 30s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast period will begin with a weak piece of energy
swinging through the longwave trough just north of our region,
bringing a chance for some isolated rain/snow showers. This will be
followed by upper ridging and surface high pressure.

Monday night through Wednesday morning...A weak piece of energy
traversing just north of the region will bring a chance for some
light rain and snow showers. The best chance for precipitation will
be over the western Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
Precipitation should be mostly in the form of rain with the higher
terrain seeing a rain/snow mix or periods of light snow. There could
be some lake enhanced precipitation over the western Mohawk Valley
and Adirondacks Wednesday morning as the flow turns northwesterly.
No snowfall accumulations are expected at this time. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the low 40s (higher terrain) to mid 50s (valley
regions). Lows Monday night and Tuesday night will generally be in
the 30s.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday...Upper level height rises and
surface high pressure will dominate this period with partly sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 30s
(higher terrain) to low 50s (valley regions). Lows will be in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light echoes are visible on area radars over western/central
New York, but observations indicate this is mostly virga due to
the dry airmass in place. Gradual moistening is expected to
occur tonight with an area of showers over the lower Ohio Valley
expanding toward KPOU and perhaps KALB/KPSF around 05-06Z.
Conditions are expected to remain mainly VFR, although brief
reductions to MVFR cigs/vsby are possible at KPOU/KPSF mainly in
the 08-14Z timeframe.

Cloud bases will rise as mixing occurs Saturday afternoon with
VFR conditions expected to continue to prevail. Some
instability should result in hit-and-miss showers in the
afternoon hours, so maintained VCSH wording.

Winds will be from the south to southwest at around 8 to 15 kt
for KALB/KPSF for the remainder of the night, with some gusts
to 20-25 kt. Winds will be lighter at around 5 to 10 kt at
KPOU/KGFL where wind shear conditions are likely to develop.
Winds will veer to westerly by Saturday afternoon at around 10
to 15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unsettled weather arrives Saturday as a cold front moves across the
region with Sunday being a chilly and brisk day along with a few
passing rain or snow showers.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, drop to 50 to 80 percent on Saturday, recover to 75 to
95 percent Saturday night, and fall to 35 to 55 percent on
Sunday.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph tonight,
southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on
Saturday, and northwest at 10 to 20 mph Saturday night and
Sunday with gusts up to 35 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through next week. There
will be chances for showers this weekend into early next week.
The best chances will be Saturday for areas to the north and
west of the Capital District. Total QPF through Saturday night
is expected to be a tenth to three tenths of an inch.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/11
NEAR TERM...11/Thompson
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11


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