Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 160527
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1227 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. A
light snow will occur early this evening across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut. While moderate
accumulations of lake effect snow are expected across portions
of the Western Adirondacks into Saturday. Otherwise fair weather
is expected through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1210 AM EST...Regional radar shows that light snow has
ended over southeastern parts of the CWA, as the back edge on
the backside of the storm is moving across south-central New
England. Meanwhile, a band of lake effect snow is starting to
organize over Lake Ontario. This band will initially impact
areas northwest of the western Adirondacks. However, this band
will start to shift southward towards our area and start
impacting northern Herkimer County by 2 AM or so. The band will
gradually shift southward through the late night hours. Although
the band won`t last too long at any location, it will briefly
fall heavily and will accumulate up to 6 inches (especially for
areas along/near Route 28). A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect.

For the remainder of the area, it will be partly to mostly
cloudy and continued chilly. Still, its not nearly as cold as
last night but still below normal with lows mainly in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The lake effect snows will shift southward Saturday morning as
a cold front moves and will diminish late in the morning into
the early afternoon as ridging builds in and disrupts the favorable
low level flow. Additional accumulations will be light. Fair
weather is then expected through Sunday the ridge shifts
eastward across the region as the upper flow become flat nearly
zonal across the eastern United States. Temperatures will remain
below normal with another cold night Saturday in the wake of
the cold front. Lows Saturday night will generally in the single
digits into the teens with some below zero readings across a
portion of the western Adirondacks.

Temperatures will moderate back to seasonable levels Sunday
night into Monday as warm front approaches. With this comes
chances for overrunning warm air advection precipitation. A
light snowfall is possible with it expected to become warm
enough Monday for some rain especially in the mid Hudson Valley
where it could reach 40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level flow will be fairly zonal across the region to start the
extended period, although a strong (yet fast moving) upper level
shortwave will be approaching for the middle of the week.  Ahead of
this approaching feature, some light precipitation will be moving
across the region for Monday night into Tuesday, although coverage
will be fairly spotty due to the surface features being weak.  With
a warming boundary layer, valley areas may generally see rainfall
(especially by Tuesday afternoon), with light snowfall for the
higher terrain and far northern areas.  Any snowfall amounts will
generally be an inch or less, as total QPF is very light. Lows on
Monday night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with temps
rising late in the overnight. Highs on Tuesday will reach into
the 40s in many spots.

As the fast moving trough slides across the Northeast, a quick shot
of cold air looks to move across the area for Wednesday. Temps will
be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with breezy northwest winds.  Some lake-
effect snow will develop off Lake Ontario and produce some
accumulation for the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley
for late Tuesday night through Wed early. Lows on Wed night will be
much colder in the teens and 20s.

High pressure should allow for dry weather for much of Wednesday
night into Thursday with seasonable temperatures. The next storm
system looks to approach for some point late in the week and
into the weekend, as the models don`t agree on the exact timing.
This storm looks to pass to our west, so a warmup with a
changeover to rain looks to occur for most of the area as precip
moves through the region. While precip could start as some
snowfall, most areas should see a majority of the precip as
rainfall, as temps warm into the 40s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
One weak cold front will settle southward across the region
later this morning, with another passing south during the mid
to late afternoon hours.

Spotty very light snow showers or flurries may impact
KGFL/KALB/KPSF through around 08Z/Sat. Thereafter, expect the
areal coverage to become limited, with most activity becoming
confined to the western Adirondacks. Despite any snow showers.
VFR conditions should prevail with the exception of KPSF, where
brief periods of MVFR could occur.

As a second cold front settles southward later this afternoon,
some snow showers may precede/accompany the front, especially
between roughly 18Z-22Z/Sat. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR could
occur if any snow showers reach the TAF sites during this time.

VFR conditions should then prevail for Saturday night as high
pressure builds back into the region.

Southwest to west winds should average mainly 3-8 KT through
sunrise. These winds will gradually veer more into the west and
increase to 8-12 KT later this morning into the afternoon, with
a few stronger gusts possible later this afternoon, perhaps
exceeding 25-30 KT, as the second cold front passes. Winds will
then veer more into the NW and gradually decrease to 5-10 KT
after sunset.

Low level wind shear has been included in the KGFL/KPSF and KPOU
through sunrise, as surface winds remain light from the
southwest at less than 5 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL
increase from the west to 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected into early next weekend. Ice
will continue to form on areas lakes and streams. Any snowfall
will be light with the exception of moderate accumulations of
lake effect snow across portions of the western Adirondacks into
Saturday morning.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ032-033.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA



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