Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KBTV 232323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Mainly dry weather is expected across the North Country through
Tuesday. An upper level trough moving southward from southeastern
Ontario and Quebec will maintain variably cloudy conditions
over the weekend, with just a chance of a snow shower, mainly
across the higher elevations of Vermont and northern New York.
Temperatures will remain slightly below average for late March
through the weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 30s.
However, strengthening high pressure early next week will bring
increased sunshine and moderating temperatures. Valley highs
will be back into the low to mid 40s on Monday, and into the
low to mid 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching mid-
level trough from the Great Lakes region will bring the
potential for scattered rain showers on Wednesday.


As of 706 PM EDT Friday...Lowered pops overnight to be confined
mainly to higher elevations, with only a stray flurry possible
in the valley floors. Moisture layer responsible for areas of
mainly virga early this evening is fairly shallow around 850 mb
and with large surface dewpoint depressions from 15-20 degrees,
anything that does fall will be widely scattered and light.
Leaned close to higher res HRRR/NAM-based output with less
emphasis on global models to depict scant coverage overnight.
Otherwise, the only other tweaks were to sky cover to bring in
line with current trends. Have a great evening!

Prior discussion...
Friday afternoon conditions across the North Country include a
relatively dry low-level north to northwesterly flow, with low
dewpoints (2-m values in the teens), and a slow-moving upper
level trough across the srn tier of NY and n-central PA. No
significant forcing mechanisms, but with orographic ascent,
we`ve seen some weak reflectivity returns (10-20 dBZ) at times
across the nrn Adirondacks this afternoon. Dry sub- cloud layer
has precluded much in the way of snow flurry activity per area
webcams. Shouldn`t see any significant weather overnight,
through variably cloudy conditions will be maintained in
northerly flow aloft. May see a few mountain flurries or snow
showers with little or no accumulation expected. Modest low-
level CAA will preclude any strong inversion tonight, so winds
should persist NW around 4-8kts after sunset. Consistent with
that, temperatures will be relatively uniform across the North
Country, with lows in the low-mid 20s, except locally in the
upper teens across the nrn Adirondacks.

Will see another fair day on Saturday, though temperatures will
trend downward several degrees compared to this afternoon.
Noting in the 12Z GFS that the 850mb temperatures fall from -8C
to -9C 18Z/Friday to -11C to -13C at 18Z/Saturday. Overall,
looking at afternoon highs in the low-mid 30s, except in the
upper 20s across the nrn Adirondacks and across VT within the
1-2kft elevational band. With yet another upper low with limited
moisture pivoting southward from sern Ontario/swrn Quebec,
should again see more clouds than sun with a few brief snow
showers Saturday/Saturday night, mainly confined to the
mountains. May locally see a coating to 0.5" across the higher
summits. Lows Saturday night mainly low-mid 20s except mid teens
across the nrn Adirondack region.


As of 331 PM EDT Friday...Building high pressure will lead to a
pleasant day on Sunday and to start the workweek. We`ll see
partly cloudy to clear skies Sunday afternoon with calming winds
overnight. That will lead to temps likely crashing much lower
than blended guidance. MOS on the order of 5 degrees colder than
deterministic guidance and so I`ve tried to show with excellent
radiational cooling that temps will likely be much colder
Sunday night. I wouldn`t be surprised if SLK and parts of the
Northeast Kingdom are in the single digits below zero either
Sunday night or Monday night as the high crests over the North

Each day should be quiet with no precip expected with light and
variable winds each day.


As of 355 PM EDT Friday...A synoptic blocking pattern remains
over the area until the mid week keeping high pressure over the
North Country. This will result in warming temperatures with
variable cloud cover and cool to cold nights. The dry airmass
will support large diurnal swings with upper 40s to 50s during
day with overnight lows in the low 20s. By midweek the block
breaks down and we see a cold front drag through the North
Country. Models are having trouble with any sort of consensus
with what the system/wave looks like at that point so the idea
of chance rain/snow still is the way I feel comfortable handling
the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday. Heading into Friday
we`ll see a more active pattern as system from the south will be
lifting north and bringing another slug of precip but at the
moment there`s quite the spread in timing so we`ll have to
continue to watch for development and consensus.


Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Mix of cirrus and mid-level clouds will persist through
the overnight before mid-level clouds shift east of the Green
mountains after 15Z while cirrus gradually thins. Winds will be
north-northwest less than 10kts overnight, and 7-11kts after 14Z


Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.




AVIATION...Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.