Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220805
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
405 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwesterly flow will develop today and along with it will
come a chance for some lake effect rain and snow showers in
Northern New York. High temperatures will generally be in the
40s today. Unsettled weather is expected for the upcoming work
week with lake effect showers moving into the area on Monday
followed by a trough of low pressure Tuesday into Wednesday that
will bring more widespread showers to the region. Below normal
temperatures will continue through much of the upcoming week as
well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Surface high to our south will slide
eastward today and a low pressure system along with an upper
level trough will approach from the Northern Great Lakes.
Between these two features southwesterly flow will develop and
some lake effect rain and snow showers are expected in the
Southern St Lawrence valley and Northern Adirondacks.
Temperatures will reach the 40s across the area. Still thinking
we will see some clearing this morning, though short lived with
more clouds moving in this afternoon from the Northwest. Headed
into Monday night, southwesterly upper level flow will persist
and some of the aforementioned lake effect snow showers will
reach Northern Vermont as well as Northern New York. There will
be clouds in place overnight so temperatures will only drop into
the mid to upper 30s with some 40s along the lake. Low pressure
system over the Northern Great Lakes will drop southeastward
edging closer to our region tonight. Then on Tuesday this low
will cross our CWA, base of upper level trough will also be over
New York during this time. We should see rain showers develop
across most of our forecast area on Tuesday, though don`t expect
a total wash out anywhere. Best forcing will be over our area
during the afternoon hours. Tuesday will be a bit warmer despite
the clouds and precipitation with warming aloft and max temps
will reach the mid 40s to lower 50s. Best chance for measurable
precipitation will be in the Northern Adirondacks, though a few
hundredths to about a quarter of an inch of rainfall is possible
areawide on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 404 AM EDT Monday...A longwave trough over the northeastern
US will result in a continuation of showery conditions Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Prevailing northwesterly flow will
support upslope showers in higher terrain, while lower
elevations will see little to no accumulation. In terms of
precipitation type, it`s looking like most of the precip in
higher terrain will fall as snow, but valleys will see either a
mix of snow and rain or just plain rain. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 30s.

Light upslope showers, mainly confined to higher terrain again,
will continue through the day Wednesday. Freezing levels will
lift through the day, and by the afternoon, expect most of the
precipitation to have transitioned to rain in all but the
highest summits. Moisture is very limited with this setup, so
QPF values through the day will remain under a tenth of an inch
in most areas. Highs Wednesday will continue to read well below
normal - higher elevations will top out in the 30s while lower
elevations will reach the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 404 AM EDT Monday...Some residual upslope snow showers will
be ongoing over higher elevations Wednesday night, but by
Thursday the forecast trends drier as high pressure builds in.
The remainder of the week will continue to feature below normal
temperatures with highs in the 30s to 40s and lows generally in
the 20s. The building high will lead to clear nights, which will
allow for effective radiational cooling overnight with the
coldest lows expected Thursday and Friday nights.

Looking forward to the weekend, continuing to see signs of a
potential pattern shift. Models are in decent agreement on a
shortwave over the southeastern US Coast developing into a
coastal low as the s/w moves over an increasingly unstable air
mass over the western Atlantic. The low would likely track
northward up the Eastern Seaboard, potentially impacting New
England anytime between Saturday afternoon and Sunday night. If
this scenario were to pan out, the sensible weather impacts to
our forecast area would mainly be some precipitation (rain,
snow, or mixed depending on how the thermal profiles set up) and
potentially some windy conditions. Still much uncertainty with
this system given how far out it is, so stay tuned as details
become clearer over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...So far the expected clearing is just not
happening overnight. Expect mid level clouds to remain
overnight. Eventually flow becomes more SW and clouds will
continue to increase,thicken and lower back to 4000-6000 feet
on Monday with a slight chance of a shower late. Visibilities
remaining VFR.

Winds have tapered off to the 5 to 10 knot range and will
continue to back today, eventually the winds will become more
southwest and south after 14z but at speeds generally under 10
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001-002-005-
     009.
NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Neiles


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