Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 160709
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
209 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A quiet pattern is set up for South Florida through at least the
middle of next week. A strong 500mb high is forecast to build to
592-594 dm through the weekend, as a surface high also builds to
the north. As the sfc high builds, the pressure gradient will
increase some, causing a northeast wind to develop by Sunday
morning. Even so, it should stay below 10 kts across the land
portion of the CWA. OVer the water, it get up to around 20 kts
briefly. The ridging will also allow the air mass to continue to
warm, with highs today around 80 across the region. By the
beginning of the week, highs are forecast in the low to mid 80`s
across South Florida, and continue that way at least through the
end of next week.

By the beginning of next week, the gradient slightly weakens, as
the high positions itself over the western Atlantic, and slowly
slides south, centering almost due east of the region.

The ridging should keep the region dry through the period.
However, models are hinting that there may be some areas with a
slight chance of rain beginning on Wednesday afternoon, namely in
the western Lake region. By the end of the week, models keep the
slight chance of rain showers off shore.

So, in summary, mainly warmer and dry through the next 7 days
under high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Building high pressure will bring an increase in wind by Sunday
morning, out of the northeast. This would allow seas to build to
3 to 5 feet in the Gulf stream by Sunday morning, and run 2 to 3
feet for the beginning of next week. seas are forecast to subside
back to 1 to 2 feet by late Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, mostly
dry with a slight chance of rain for the latter half of next week.

The wind will be increasing today and tonight to near advisory
criteria by late this evening. Currently the forecast calls for
mainly 15 to 20 kt wind sometime after 8 pm est this evening. At
the minimum small craft should exercise caution if boating in the
South Florida Atlantic waters tonight and possibly tomorrow.

This increase in wind may also bring a moderate risk of rip
currents for at least the next several days for the Atlantic
coast, especially around Miami Beach, as the wind is forecast to
be stronger to the south.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds will prevail through the night with passing few/sct
cirrus above 25000 FT mfl. Otherwise, winds should remain light
and variable through early tomorrow morning with dry conditions.
Aft around 16/1800, expect ENE winds 8-10 KT to increase along the
east coast. Winds will slowly diminish this evening, after sun
down.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  65  80  69 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  79  69  80  72 /   0  10  10  10
Miami            80  68  81  70 /   0   0  10  10
Naples           78  61  81  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...27/JT



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