Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 210725
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
325 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough to the north will continue to dig southeast
moving across the Great Lakes region today. This will give a
shortwave and low level trough over the FL panhandle a push across
the peninsula this weekend. The southwesterly steering flow
continues as trough moves across the region infiltrating drier air
over the Gulf across South Florida today. Model sounding suggest
precipitable water values lowering to around 1.5 inches with a
more westerly flow through the mid layers as drier makes it into
the area. Therefore, rain chances will be very limited this
afternoon. On the other hand, high temperatures will be hot
reaching the low to mid 90s and a few spots could be even higher
closer to the upper 90s along the east coast metro and interior
portion of S FL. Today the highest heat index values will range
from 105 to 107 in some spots along the east coast metro areas.
The dry conditions will not last long as the boundary towards the
panhandle gradually makes it into South FL Sunday. Better rain
chances return Sunday with widespread showers and storms mainly
north near the Lake region.

Upper level trough becomes a cut off low as it sinks southward next
week. This feature will keep an abundant moisture in the periphery
of the low with a west to southwest flow through much of the week.
Precipitable water values in the model sounding suggest pwats above
2 inches along with cooler temperatures aloft and few shortwaves
rotating around the low. As a result, this will bring rainy pattern
with more widespread showers and storms the early part of next week.
The main hazard could be locally heavy rainfall if the moisture
content does materialize.

&&

.MARINE...Weak boundary across Central Florida will gradually settle
southward over the next few days. West-southwesterly flow is expected
to prevail as a result, with little if any development of the Atlantic
seabreeze. Seas continue 2 feet or less in both the Gulf and Atlantic
today, with the increasing westerly fetch bringing seas to 3 to 4
feet in the offshore Gulf by Monday. Coverage of showers and storms
remains isolated on Saturday, with more widespread coverage across
all local waters into the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with light SW flow continues at all terminals
through late Saturday morning. Stronger SW/W flow establishes
Saturday early in the afternoon but remaining generally VFR. Kept
VCSH over the Atlantic terminals after 18Z, but POPS may drop even
more in upcoming updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  96  77  92  77 /  20  20  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  94  80  89  79 /  10  10  70  50
Miami            95  78  90  77 /  10  10  60  50
Naples           90  82  88  81 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...67/MT
MARINE...67/MT
AVIATION...17/AR



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