Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 212357
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
757 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.AVIATION...

The winds will remain northeast around 10 knots tonight before
increasing to around 15 knots on Monday over most of the taf sites,
except at KAPF taf site where the winds will be around 5 knots
tonight. There could be a few showers affecting the east coast taf
sites through Monday, but the coverage will be few and far between
to mention it in the taf sites at this time. KAPF will have VCSH
until 02Z tonight due to the ongoing showers early this evening that
should move southward into the Gulf waters. The ceiling and vis will
remain in VFR conditions outside of any showers, but could fall down
into MVFR conditions with a passing shower.

&&

.UPDATE...

The weak cold front continues to slowly work its way south this
evening, with a few associated showers. The showers will generally
be quite short lived, with the exception of along the west coast
where they interact with the remnant Gulf Breeze boundary. Made a
few short-term tweaks to PoPs and sky cover, but otherwise the
forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday..

A weak cold front, now located from Palm Beach to near Fort
Myers, will continue its slow push south through most of the area
this evening, before stalling over the Florida Straits on Monday.
While moisture ahead of the front is rather limited, it`s been
enough to pop off a few showers across northern portions of our
area. Given this, introduced slight chance PoPs for this evening
in association with the frontal passage. As the front slows and
becomes more diffuse, scattered Atlantic showers tonight may
affect east coast areas through late tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
most locations will remain on the dry side. With the drier air
making it into at least northwest portions of our area, overnight
lows will range from the mid 60s across portions of Glades and
Hendry Counties, to the upper 70s along Coastal Broward and Miami-
Dade Counties. Widespread cloud cover tomorrow should keep
temperatures in check, with highs only in the low to mid 80s for
most areas. The exception will be along the Gulf coast and western
Interior, where upper 80s will prevail. Breezy north-northeast winds
will prevail given post-frontal conditions, with gusts of 20 to 25
mph expected for Atlantic coastal areas. Given these stronger
onshore winds, a high risk for rip currents is anticipated on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Quasi-zonal flow over the Southeast States will gradually amplify
in response to a Great Lakes shortwave and the advancing western
synoptic scale trough. The stalled frontal boundary will then creep
north across our area, with a slight increase in deep layer
moisture. While instability will be limited, periodic shower
chances will exist with the front in the vicinity. Temperatures
should be seasonal, with highs in the 80s and lows mostly in the
60s and 70s.

Friday and Saturday...

Negative tilt trough will advance through the central and eastern
CONUS, as divergence aloft contributes to the subsequent deepening
of surface low pressure over the western Gulf early in the period.
A reinforcing wave aloft should help shunt the low east along the
Carolinas coast, while likely pushing a surface cold front
through South Florida on Saturday. While model disagreement exists
in timing the frontal passage, wet and possibly stormy conditions
are possible for the early portion of the weekend.

MARINE...

Gusty northeast winds will continue for the Atlantic waters into
Monday, while gradually increasing in the Gulf waters tonight in
association with a passing cold front. Expect speeds of 15 to 20
knots through Monday evening, with sustained speeds up to 25 knots
possible in the Atlantic starting tonight. Seas will also build to
6-8 feet for the Atlantic waters (mainly in the Gulf Stream), and
should remain elevated into Monday evening. Extended the Small
Craft Advisory until 00z Tuesday to account for this. Gradually
improving marine conditions are expected on Tuesday.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. A cold
front will slowly move through the region later this afternoon.
Winds will increase this afternoon as well out of the northeast
with speeds between 10 and 12 knots. At KAPF, winds will shift
around to the northwest this afternoon as the Gulf coast sea
breeze moves inland.

BEACH FORECAST...

Gusty onshore winds will increase the rip current risk from
moderate this evening to high on Monday into Tuesday. Therefore
issued a rip current statement through Tuesday evening. The
elevated rip current risk should extend into at least mid week, so
swimmers should exercise extreme caution.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  87  73  83  73 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  76  83  76 /  20  20  20  20
Miami            90  74  83  74 /  20  40  20  30
Naples           88  70  86  69 /  50  60   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...34/SPM
DISCUSSION...34/SPM
MARINE...34/SPM
AVIATION...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...34/SPM






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