Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 260529
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
129 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.AVIATION...WNW winds 5-8kts likely to become VRB at 5kts or less
through remainder of overnight. Winds pick back up out of the WSW
mid- morning, with mesoscale models suggesting a late day
seabreeze may back winds SSE-SE at KFXE-KFLL-KMIA. More inland
sites likely to remain SW 8-12kts. Seabreeze at KPBI is uncertain,
for now will keep winds southerly during the late afternoon. Few
convergence SHRA over waters no threat to land, otherwise dry and
VFR through TAF cycle.


88/ALM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 748 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

UPDATE...Dry conditions will prevail tonight into Thursday as
high pressure settles over South Florida behind the front. Expect
clear skies tonight with temperatures cooling into the mid to
upper 50s in the interior and mid 60s along the coastal areas.
Forecast remains on track as benign weather conditions continue
with small changes reflecting the latest observations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: Ridge building over the region will dominate the
weather pattern today through Thursday with dry and clear skies
across the area. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm in the mid
to upper 80s. Lower humidities ranging from 35 to 40 percent this
afternoon will allow for cooler overnight lows ranging from the
upper 50s over the interior and mid to upper 60s along the coasts.

Thursday into Friday: Into Thursday, most of the peninsula will
still be under the influence of the ridge with dry air over the
area. Models keep showing several strong shortwaves within the upper
trough. Model to model inconsistencies remain, but overall it looks
like these features will drive the development of another weak
surface low that will bring another diffuse and slow moving frontal
boundary through the FL peninsula this weekend. Most of the abundant
moisture associated with this low will move northeast. Over South
Florida, still look to see increasing moisture from south to north
Friday and Saturday as the old frontal boundary drifts back into the
region. Expect at least isolated showers across the region both
days, with coverage more scattered across Miami-Dade and Mainland
Monroe.

This weekend and next week: Frontal boundary moves across the area
pushing most of the moisture over the Atlantic waters. Any
development will remain over the waters with drier conditions over
the peninsula. Temperatures will warm up into the mid to upper 80s
across the interior and west Gulf coast while in the mid 80s along
the east coast metro areas.

MARINE...Brief northwest wind surge behind initial frontal
passage will keep speeds around 10-15kts. Otherwise, expect drier
conditions and prevailing west-northwest winds around 10kts to
linger into Saturday. Speeds will be light enough to allow the
Atlantic seabreeze to develop near the coast each afternoon,
bringing winds out of the south-southeast. Another frontal passage
late this weekend will bring winds out of the east-northeast on
Sunday, with increasing speeds expected as we head into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  83  66  85  65 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  83  69  84  68 /   0   0  30  30
Miami            84  69  86  68 /   0  10  30  30
Naples           82  68  83  67 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&








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