Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 262322
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Cold front will moving into KABI and KSJT around 6Z, with winds
shifting the west and northwest an hour ahead of it. Wind gusts to
25 KTS likely behind the front for a couple hours at KABI, and 4
to 5 hours at KSJT. As the main thrust of the front is south
through the Permian Basin, terminals east and south including
KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA will generally have a shift to the north 10
KTS or less late tonight and Friday morning. Northeast wind 5 to 8
KTS will prevail Friday. VFR otherwise through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

..Pleasant day ahead with seasonal temperatures...

After a cold, and in some locations foggy start to the day, the
clouds of have dissipated and most locations were seeing clear skies
with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures have quickly warmed into the
upper 60s to low 70s across the region. By tonight a weak cold front
will approach the area from the west and move across the region
through the morning hours. Very little impacts can be expected with
this frontal passage. Limited moisture will limit rain chances for
most locations. Some HI-RES models show a few isolated showers
developing across Haskell and Throckmorton counties late tonight
through the early morning. Any showers that do develop will bring
little measurable rainfall. Overnight lows will be much warmer
tonight with lows in the low to mid 50s. As the front passes
through, the winds will shift to the northeast but will remain below
15 mph. Temperatures won`t bottom out behind the front, like we have
seen with previous fronts this season, and temperatures should
remain at or just below seasonal normals for this time of year
with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Southerly flow returns Friday night, bringing gradually higher
dewpoints into the region. This should help overnight temperatures
Friday Night/Saturday Morning rebound into the low 50s. Saturday
should be a nice day with upper level ridging over the region and the
surface ridge getting nudged east. Forecast highs in the low to
mid 80s across the area for Saturday. Continued southerly flow
will bring dewpoints reaching into the low 50s overnight Saturday,
with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

On Sunday, a large trough will move into the Inter-mountain West
and the dry-line will set-up over eastern New Mexico and just east
of El Paso, with dewpoints in the mid 50s. However, with no
discernible lifting mechanism and a lack of instability over West
Central Texas, showers/thunderstorms appear unlikely for Sunday.
With the strengthening of the southerly flow, winds will be
blustery at around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. It may get
slightly warmer as well, with highs in the mid 80s and lows Sunday
night into the low 60s.

The dry-line moves to a position just west of our western counties
on Monday with southerly flow bringing a further increase in
dewpoints (into the low 60s) and greater instability. At the same
time, an upper level disturbance rotates around the trough,
providing a lifting mechanism. This may be enough to spawn some
shower/thunderstorm activity for Monday afternoon/evening.

Instability and moisture increases further for Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday as well, with shear increasing too. Thunderstorm
chances for our region will highly depend on where the dry-line
sets up each day. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the GFS and ECMWF
keep the dry-line over our extreme western counties which would be
favorable for thunderstorms (as long as they aren`t inhibited by
a strong capping inversion and lack of lifting mechanism). As a
result, thunderstorm chances will continue for Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons/evenings. Too early to say how intense the
thunderstorms could be but should have a better idea in the
coming days as to the severe threat. Also, it will continue to get
warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs reaching into the low
90s.

The dry-line moves a little farther east on Thursday with chances
for thunderstorms concentrated in the central and eastern
counties. Then a cold front will swoop down from the north
Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  74  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  52  77  52  84 /   5   0   0   5
Junction  54  78  53  84 /   5   5   0   0
Brownwood  51  76  49  84 /  20   0   0   0
Sweetwater  50  73  54  84 /   5   0   0   0
Ozona       53  75  53  80 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04



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