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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 271745
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1045 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

A quiet but cool day is expected for today. This weekend will
feature some afternoon breezes but with highs at or above normal.
More active weather arrives on Monday, lasting through Wednesday,
featuring breezy conditions and low chances for rain and snow.
Quiet but cool weather returns for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

The forecast for today, Friday, will be about as quiet as it can
get. A weak s/w is pushing into Mexico, which is helping keep
skies clear to mostly clear over our area. It`s also reinforcing
our abnormally cool air mass in place. After a rather chilly start
this morning, we will finish about ten degrees below normal this
afternoon. Winds are looking pretty tame as well though it will be
modestly breezy in the Sacs. Flow aloft begins to shift to the
west, which will begin eroding our cooler air mass. This change
will be enough to boost Saturday morning lows a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

The weekend is not looking too bad either. We`ll continue within
zonal or quasi-zonal flow as a weak s/w cross NM in the
afternoon. We will see lee trough across NE NM, but it will be
hindered by an arctic air mass heading southward across the
Central Plains. The s/w is not impressive either with H500 at
about 60 knots. H850 in the always more aggressive GFS is only
topping out around 20 knots, so a mildly breezy day is on tap.
With that said, flow over the Sacs will be stronger with models
hinting at a hydraulic jump. Winds at this time look to be close
to advisory criteria, but for now, look to fall a few knots short.
This s/w will also help warm us back close to normal for highs.

On Sunday we will see a s/w ridge translate across the state. We
will see more warming, but winds will be light. Sunday will likely
be the nicest day of this forecast period. By Monday we begin to
see early influences of a larger u/l trough or closed low, which
models are struggling to handle. Monday was looking quite breezy,
but the 00z runs of the GFS and Euro have trended downward in wind
speeds. Looking at the 18z GEFS data, the operational run was on
the low side of guidance. Either way, NBM is showing higher wind
speeds, and that is what is in the official forecast. We will be
limited on wind speeds regardless with surface high pressure to
our east continuing to limit lee troughing.

The slow progression of the low or trough looks to make Tuesday a
similar day to Monday. The only difference is precip chances
arrive to the Gila and areas adjacent to the AZ border. Again, 00z
runs of the GFS and Euro are lagging the timing of the NBM, but
the 00z GEFS suggests the slower timing is probably correct. In
this scenario everyone stays dry on Tuesday. It`s not until
Wednesday this trough or low looks to swing across NM and far W.
Texas. The GFS suggests it largely swings through dry with any
precip limited to the far west and mountains while the Euro
continues to insist on a slower track that is farther south. The
12z and prior runs of the Euro suggested quite the storm with
significant snows in the lowlands. The 00z run keeps the precip
(rain instead of snow) but is warmer and not as strong. Could it
be finally trending toward the GFS as well as the open wave
solution suggested in ensemble data? Probably so, and that is what
this forecast leans toward. Nevertheless, there are pops in the
grid for Wednesday although it looks like there is a good chance
this system is a dry one for most of us.

In any case, this system is expected to clear out of here by
Thursday with cooler temperatures in its wake. The Euro, even in
the latest run, manages to pull in some modified arctic air via a
backdoor while the GFS pulls in cooler air via a side door.
Different method of cooling our temps but a very similar outcome
in terms of highs and lows although the Euro is notably cooler for
Thursday morning. In either case, it looks to be cooler than
normal with winds topping out around 10 knots for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions through the period. Skies generally SKC with some
FEW250 possible aft 00Z from the west. No restrictions to VSBY.
Winds generally SW to W AOB 07-10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

Quiet but dry conditions are expected for today with min RH values
bottoming out in the upper teens to mid 20s while afternoon highs
finish well below normal. Winds will be light area wide, topping
out around 5 to 10 MPH. This will lead to poor vent rates nearly
area wide.

Winds increase for Saturday, especially in eastern areas while
daytime highs also increase. All areas will be below critical
thresholds, but with winds topping out 15 to 20 MPH and lowland
min RH in the upper teens and lower 20s, there may be some locally
elevated fire concerns. We will see similar fire weather
conditions Sunday and Monday though with more wide spread breezes
on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  52  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            50  30  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  28  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               49  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               33  21  36  23 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    47  25  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              47  29  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  24  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                51  26  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       50  32  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                53  22  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             55  27  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               45  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   54  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             49  27  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           49  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            49  26  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    52  24  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 50  27  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                49  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  26  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                41  22  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 39  21  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  46  24  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                51  24  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                49  22  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  22  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   50  25  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    53  18  58  19 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               48  27  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  28  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  26  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  24  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           52  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  32  54  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

34/14
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
