Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271745
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1045 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023
A quiet but cool day is expected for today. This weekend will
feature some afternoon breezes but with highs at or above normal.
More active weather arrives on Monday, lasting through Wednesday,
featuring breezy conditions and low chances for rain and snow.
Quiet but cool weather returns for Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023
The forecast for today, Friday, will be about as quiet as it can
get. A weak s/w is pushing into Mexico, which is helping keep
skies clear to mostly clear over our area. It`s also reinforcing
our abnormally cool air mass in place. After a rather chilly start
this morning, we will finish about ten degrees below normal this
afternoon. Winds are looking pretty tame as well though it will be
modestly breezy in the Sacs. Flow aloft begins to shift to the
west, which will begin eroding our cooler air mass. This change
will be enough to boost Saturday morning lows a few degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023
The weekend is not looking too bad either. We`ll continue within
zonal or quasi-zonal flow as a weak s/w cross NM in the
afternoon. We will see lee trough across NE NM, but it will be
hindered by an arctic air mass heading southward across the
Central Plains. The s/w is not impressive either with H500 at
about 60 knots. H850 in the always more aggressive GFS is only
topping out around 20 knots, so a mildly breezy day is on tap.
With that said, flow over the Sacs will be stronger with models
hinting at a hydraulic jump. Winds at this time look to be close
to advisory criteria, but for now, look to fall a few knots short.
This s/w will also help warm us back close to normal for highs.
On Sunday we will see a s/w ridge translate across the state. We
will see more warming, but winds will be light. Sunday will likely
be the nicest day of this forecast period. By Monday we begin to
see early influences of a larger u/l trough or closed low, which
models are struggling to handle. Monday was looking quite breezy,
but the 00z runs of the GFS and Euro have trended downward in wind
speeds. Looking at the 18z GEFS data, the operational run was on
the low side of guidance. Either way, NBM is showing higher wind
speeds, and that is what is in the official forecast. We will be
limited on wind speeds regardless with surface high pressure to
our east continuing to limit lee troughing.
The slow progression of the low or trough looks to make Tuesday a
similar day to Monday. The only difference is precip chances
arrive to the Gila and areas adjacent to the AZ border. Again, 00z
runs of the GFS and Euro are lagging the timing of the NBM, but
the 00z GEFS suggests the slower timing is probably correct. In
this scenario everyone stays dry on Tuesday. It`s not until
Wednesday this trough or low looks to swing across NM and far W.
Texas. The GFS suggests it largely swings through dry with any
precip limited to the far west and mountains while the Euro
continues to insist on a slower track that is farther south. The
12z and prior runs of the Euro suggested quite the storm with
significant snows in the lowlands. The 00z run keeps the precip
(rain instead of snow) but is warmer and not as strong. Could it
be finally trending toward the GFS as well as the open wave
solution suggested in ensemble data? Probably so, and that is what
this forecast leans toward. Nevertheless, there are pops in the
grid for Wednesday although it looks like there is a good chance
this system is a dry one for most of us.
In any case, this system is expected to clear out of here by
Thursday with cooler temperatures in its wake. The Euro, even in
the latest run, manages to pull in some modified arctic air via a
backdoor while the GFS pulls in cooler air via a side door.
Different method of cooling our temps but a very similar outcome
in terms of highs and lows although the Euro is notably cooler for
Thursday morning. In either case, it looks to be cooler than
normal with winds topping out around 10 knots for Thursday and
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023
VFR conditions through the period. Skies generally SKC with some
FEW250 possible aft 00Z from the west. No restrictions to VSBY.
Winds generally SW to W AOB 07-10kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023
Quiet but dry conditions are expected for today with min RH values
bottoming out in the upper teens to mid 20s while afternoon highs
finish well below normal. Winds will be light area wide, topping
out around 5 to 10 MPH. This will lead to poor vent rates nearly
area wide.
Winds increase for Saturday, especially in eastern areas while
daytime highs also increase. All areas will be below critical
thresholds, but with winds topping out 15 to 20 MPH and lowland
min RH in the upper teens and lower 20s, there may be some locally
elevated fire concerns. We will see similar fire weather
conditions Sunday and Monday though with more wide spread breezes
on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 52 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 50 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 50 28 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 49 25 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 33 21 36 23 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 47 25 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 47 29 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 50 24 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 51 26 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 50 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 53 22 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 55 27 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 45 29 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 54 27 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 49 27 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 49 32 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 49 26 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 52 24 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 50 27 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 49 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 47 26 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 41 22 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 39 21 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 46 24 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 51 24 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 49 22 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 48 22 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 50 25 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 53 18 58 19 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 48 27 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 48 28 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 53 26 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 51 24 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 52 28 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 51 32 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
34/14