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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 162107 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 307 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Dry west to southwest flow aloft will persist through this week to next weekend. A bit of residual moisture over the Sacramento Mountains Monday could produce a few thunderstorms. Otherwise expect very few clouds and above normal temperatures over the next week. Triple digit high temperatures are possible across desert areas Thursday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Looks like typical early summer weather for the CWA over the next week as main storm track remains well north of the area. This means we remain in weak flow from the southern branch of the jet over our area, resulting in dry west to southwest flow. For the week ahead as a whole, this will give us very few clouds and above normal temperatures. In the short term, satellite imagery shows considerable CU development over the mountains and Sierra County. Some virga and a few light rain showers are likely with these over the next 3 to 5 hours. RAP and HRRR continue to show modest cells over this area into early evening hours, so kept low POPs in for the northern tier of zones. Low DCAPE values would suggest not much downburst potential, but dewpoint depressions suggest winds of 40-50 mph possible this evening, even under just light showers. For tomorrow, models continue to show just a bit higher dewpoints over the northern zones and especially the Sac Mtns. So left a low POP in for the Sacs Monday afternoon. High DCAPE values show some potential for near severe wind gusts if any storms can generate. Both NAM12/GFS show dryline just east of CWA Monday afternoon and drifting back in late Monday night for a few showers. Ignored this for now but will have to continue to watch that situation. Otherwise, the remainder of the week should be dry with very few clouds. Slightly above normal temperatures through Wednesday will warm further Thursday into the weekend, with triple digit highs likely for many of the lowland sites. && .AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 with some isolated -TSRA BKN060-080 over area mountains and possibly near KTCS through 02Z. Afterwards, skies becoming SKC-SCT250. Winds generally west to southwest 5-15KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Generally a west to southwest flow over the region will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal with low relative humidities in the 5 to 15 percent range, slightly higher in the highest elevations. Almost every day for the upcoming week will have breezy conditions, but looks like critical speeds will not be met, at least not for 3 hours any day. Besides some isolated showers and thunderstorms into the early evening, little to no precipitation is expected. Vent rates with the breezy west to southwest winds will remain very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 65 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 65 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 73 45 71 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 96 64 95 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 60 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 62 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 62 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 71 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 100 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 66 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 71 99 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 66 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 70 96 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 63 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 63 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 86 52 83 / 20 10 0 0 Mescalero 46 85 50 82 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 45 83 49 81 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 48 91 47 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 61 93 59 95 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 62 95 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 49 91 51 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 58 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 93 46 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 91 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 97 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 60 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 62 96 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ Hefner/Grzywacz
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