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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 212130
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
330 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low currently over Nevada and Utah, and an advancing
backdoor cold front, will move into our area, bringing the risk of
showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday night. Precip
coverage will generally be favored over Grant, Sierra, Otero, and
Hudspeth Counties, with lower coverage further southwest. A few
storms on Tuesday could produce small hail and gusty winds. Drier
conditions will prevail on Wednesday, followed by a sharp warming
trend towards the end of the week. Afternoon highs in the 90s look
to return to the lowlands by Friday and Saturday, along with
increasingly breezy and dry southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows broad troughing over much of the western
CONUS this afternoon, with an embedded upper low over the NV/UT
border. High clouds associated with the subtropical jet extend
across northern Mexico into South Texas. This band of high clouds
will be pulled northward this tonight as the upper low digs south
towards the lower Colorado Valley, causing winds aloft to back
from west to southwest. This will lead to Partly Cloudy conditions
by early morning, at least over eastern parts of the area.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front will work its way down the
front range of the Rockies and into northeastern New Mexico and
the Texas Panhandle tomorrow (Mon) afternoon. Increasing flow
upper flow across the mountains will support lee cyclogenesis, but
further south than usual thanks to the cold front. Models suggest
weak surface lows developing in SE New Mexico and the Big Bend
area by the evening. Deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture will be pulled
in towards the Pecos Valley, but ultimately the best moisture
will stay east of the higher terrain and outside our CWA.

A leading shortwave trough/vort max will lift into southern New
Mexico Monday night as the backdoor cold front pushes into the the
Sacramento Mountains. Weak isentropic life and steepening lapse
rates will lead to a few spotty convective showers or perhaps even
a weak thunderstorm Monday night. The NAM, GFS, and several CAMs
have been trending in this direction with light/scattered QPF over
all but far SW New Mexico Monday night. However, dry air at the
surface will likely suppress precip to a large extent. Generally
kept PoPs below 10 except near and north of the expected position
of the front.

On Tuesday the upper low will move into SW New Mexico or NW
Chihuahua. Models have continued to trend towards digging this
system a little deeper with each run, and bring the weakening
backdoor cold front further to the west as well. The overall
forecast philosophy hasn`t changed -- that being widely scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday mainly along and behind the front, with dry
air aloft preventing precip south of the upper low track. However,
with the front and the low expected further south, the precip
threat is going along with it. However, overall moisture,
especially in the lower levels, is limited, especially compared to
areas east of the Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountains, so instability
will be weak (300-500 J/Kg CAPE mainly along//behind the front)
and QPF amounts still look to be light. PoPs still look to be
highest over the Sacramento Mountains and Gila, tapering off
towards SW New Mexico. A few thunderstorms could produce gusty
winds and small hail, especially close to the mid-level cold pool
under the upper low.

Precip looks to continue Tuesday night over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth Counties, perhaps aided by any outflow drifting in from
storms over the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend region. Lingering showers
Wednesday morning will diminish by the afternoon.

A drying and warming trend looks to set up for the end of the week
as a sharper ridge builds over the area. Friday and Saturday could
bring 90s back to much of the desert lowlands, followed by
increasingly breezy SW winds for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Skies SKC becoming
FEW-SCT250 after 03Z. Winds 240-260 at 15-20G26KT decreasing
overnight to 260-280 at 08-12KT by 06Z. Prevailing wind tomorrow
afternoon of 230-260 at 10-15KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another night of mild, above normal temperatures with mostly clear
skies and breezy southwest flow. Much like last night, winds will
remain gusty in the early morning, especially along east slopes and
portions of the Sacramento Mountains.

Temperatures will be cooler on Monday, as an upper level low dives
down the Great Basin toward the International Border. Elevated fire
conditions will still exist tomorrow afternoon, with winds of 10 to
15 mph and RH in the lower teens. The arrival of the backdoor cold
front Monday night will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday, with the best chances in the mountains and
areas east of the Rio Grande. Above normal temps and dry conditions
return by the Thursday into next weekend with winds looking to
increase again by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 63  83  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           57  80  52  74 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              54  79  51  74 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              52  82  49  73 /   0   0  10  30
Cloudcroft              39  59  35  49 /   0   0  20  60
Truth or Consequences   52  79  52  70 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City             48  70  45  65 /   0   0   0  30
Deming                  49  79  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               44  77  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  82  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               54  85  50  78 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            62  87  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              55  77  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  60  85  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            57  81  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          59  81  54  74 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           50  79  48  73 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   52  81  48  74 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                54  81  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               53  81  50  73 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                 45  71  40  58 /   0   0  30  60
Mescalero               42  70  39  57 /   0   0  20  60
Timberon                39  67  37  57 /   0   0  20  50
Winston                 37  71  35  64 /   0   0  10  50
Hillsboro               48  76  44  70 /   0   0   0  30
Spaceport               48  79  44  71 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            35  71  34  66 /   0   0   0  40
Hurley                  44  73  41  68 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                   38  78  37  73 /   0   0   0  30
Mule Creek              44  72  43  69 /   0   0   0  30
Faywood                 47  73  45  68 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  46  79  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 46  79  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          46  79  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              47  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 30-Dennhardt
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
