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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 201047
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
447 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will have yet another windy day today as our winds will come
around to the west and be gusty at times this afternoon. The
weekend is looking very nice, with lighter winds and temperatures
running a few degrees below average. For most of next week we will
see a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms for
locations east of the Rio Grande and in area mountains, but the
west will continue dry. Temperatures next week will run at or a
little above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday a few locations around El Paso and Las Cruces got to see
some lightning and hear some thunder, something we haven`t seen or
heard in awhile. There may be more of that later next week. For
today we will have another very windy day as yet another upper
level storm system moves across the Four Corners region. Without
the help of a lee side surface trough, most of us will stay in the
windy category (20 to 30 mph), with the one exception being the
Sacramento mountains which will reach low end wind advisory
levels (25 to 35 mph). For the weekend we will be on the backside
of the upper level trough which will have moved to the east of the
region. We will see cooler air filter into the region from a weak
Pacific front on early Saturday morning and then from a weak back
door cold front on Sunday. High temperatures will run a few
degrees below average. It should be a very nice weekend.

Early on Monday, behind the back door cold front we will begin to
see some moisture trickle back into the region from the east. For
most of next week we will see several surges of moisture from the
east and this moisture will help give us a slight chance of rain
off and on during next week. On Monday the rain chances will be
confined to area mountains. Then for Tuesday through next Friday
we will see a slight chance for rain each day mainly east of the
Rio Grande. Temperatures next week will run a few degrees above
average despite the increase in clouds and rain chances. The main
reason for the warmer weather will be a series of upper level
ridges that move across New Mexico. Now, an upper level ridge
usually isn`t the best thing for rain chances, but these ridges
will be weak and on the move, so their effects on our weather
will be limited.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/12Z-21/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Strong surface
winds will again be the main weather impacts today. For locations
east of the Rio Grande we will see winds from the southeast this
morning, but by late morning our winds will come around to the
west and increase for all locations to 27020G30KT through the
afternoon hours. We could see a few spots of patchy blowing dust
south and west of Deming, but wide spread blowing dust is not
expected. Ceilings today will be generally unlimited, but we could
see some FEW-SCT150-250 clouds from time to time.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather will again be a big concern today as our surface
winds will again increase above critical levels. But a mitigating
factor is that we still have some moisture lingering around the
area. Min RH`s today in the mountains will be near 20% and in the
lowlands near 10%. Many locations, especially in the lowlands,
will approach or exceed Red Flag conditions this afternoon. For
the weekend we will continue to see dry conditions, but winds will
be below critical levels both Saturday and Sunday. For much of
next week we will see drier conditions west of the Rio Grande and
higher min RH`s and even some rain chances east of the river.
Winds should not be a factor for much of next week, the two
exceptions will be a pair of back door cold fronts which could
give some brief gusty east winds on Sunday and again on next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           80  45  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              72  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              73  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              48  30  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   72  45  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             62  39  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  71  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               69  38  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      73  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               79  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            82  48  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              70  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  78  49  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            74  46  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          72  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           72  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   74  43  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                74  46  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               73  47  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 59  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               57  35  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                56  33  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 63  33  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               68  41  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               71  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            60  29  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  63  36  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   66  31  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              64  38  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 65  38  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  71  39  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 71  38  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          72  41  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              67  42  73  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for NMZ415-416.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

Brice
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
