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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 231121
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
421 AM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be dry and sunny, but our high temperatures will still
be around 5 degrees below average. For Thursday and Friday, we
will be a little warmer under mostly clear skies. For Saturday we
will have some slightly cooler air move into the region, but then
we will see our high temperatures a little above average for
Sunday and Monday. We could see a big cool down for the middle of
next week with highs running 10 to 15 degrees below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of weak cold fronts will help keep our high temperatures
at or a few degrees below average through Sunday. For today and
Thursday we will see a dry northwest flow aloft. This pattern
will only allow for a few degrees of warming today and tomorrow.
Thursday`s highs will creep almost back to seasonal averages, but
then the first weak cold front moves across the area and we will
a degree or two of cooling for Friday. Then on Saturday, a dry
upper level short wave will help push a second weak cold front
into the region and we will see our highs on Saturday 2 to 5
degrees below average. On Sunday an upper level ridge will try and
build across the West Coast and that will help give us some
westerly winds at the surface, so that our highs on Sunday will be
near average and our highs on Monday will be a few degrees above
average. But then on Tuesday, both the extended GFS and EC are
indicating that a strong cold front will move across the area.
This front will have some strong easterly winds and will cool our
high temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday at least 10 degrees
below average. In addition both models are kicking out some light
precipitation. Snow levels would be near 5,000 feet or maybe even
a little lower, but right now precipitation totals look pretty
light.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our surface winds
will be light and variable this morning and then by the afternoon
into the evening hours the winds will become more westerly at
around 26009KT. Ceilings will be mostly unlimited with an
occasional high cloud floating by FEW-SCT250.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally a quiet weather for the next seven days. A series of
weak cold fronts will keep our temperatures at or a few degrees
below average through Sunday. Next Monday will see highs a few
degrees above average, but then a strong cold front with strong
easterly winds will arrive on next Tuesday, dropping our midweek
highs well below average. Other than next Tuesday, our surface
winds look to stay below critical levels. For today through Friday
we will see our min RH`s running in the teens to the lower to mid
20`s. For the weekend our min RH`s will be in the 20`s and 30`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  31  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           50  28  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              53  28  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              50  26  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  22  37  18 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   52  29  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             49  31  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  54  27  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               53  30  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      53  31  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               54  27  59  24 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            54  29  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              48  28  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  54  30  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            53  27  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  29  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           53  25  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   55  28  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                54  28  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               52  28  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 48  26  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  27  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                44  25  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 49  24  50  19 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               53  28  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               53  26  55  24 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            49  21  51  21 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  50  28  54  23 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   51  27  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              51  26  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 51  29  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  54  31  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 53  28  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  29  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              52  32  58  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/15
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
