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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192110
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 PM MDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air has worked into most of the region this afternoon, with
just a couple of stray thunderstorms expected through the early
evening hours over parts of Hudspeth County and the New Mexico
Bootheel. A weak backdoor cold front will move in by Monday
morning, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a slight boost
in moisture. This will be enough for scattered thunderstorms in
the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains on Monday afternoon, with
isolated storms working into the lowlands towards evening. Drier
conditions will prevail in the lowlands on Tuesday, with just a
few storms possible in the Sacramento Mountains and Gila Regions.
A plume of moisture over Arizona and Sonora will shift slowly
eastward through the remainder of the week, with afternoon and
evening thunderstorm coverage gradually increasing from west to
east, becoming widespread again by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry air aloft has pushed into the region from the north in the
wake of an upper level trough that passed through the area late
last night. Blended GOES/GPS PW estimate product shows
Precipitable Water values down to around 0.50" over parts of Grant
and Sierra Counties, and this gradually ramps up to around 0.75"
along the New Mexico/Chihuahua Border and 1.30" in far SE Hudspeth
County. For most of the area, we`re actually running a little
moister than what we had expected 24 hours ago, particularly below
600 mb. At the surface, while dewpoints have dropped into the
upper-30s in the far northern areas of the CWA, we still have
dewpoints in the mid-50s to around 60 in Far West Texas and the
NM Bootheel. An isolated thunderstorm recently cropped up just
east of the Hueco Mountains in NW Hudspeth County, and towering Cu
in the Bootheel shows some promise. Will keep a 10-PoP going
through a little after sunset in those few areas holding on to
marginal moisture.


A weak backdoor cold front will push into the Rio Grande Valley
tomorrow afternoon, as the subtropical ridge shifts drifts
eastward over southern New Mexico. SE low level flow will give us
a slight boost in overall moisture, with PW values of 0.90 to
1.20 inches expected over the area (lower in the NW, higher in the
SE). Despite the ridge being centered overhead, mid level
temperatures aren`t looking to be terribly warm (500 mb Temps
around -6C). With marginal instability and upslope SE flow in the
lower levels, expect upslope flow will be enough to kick off
scattered thunderstorms in the higher terrain of the Gila Region
and Sacramento Mountains. Some isolated storms will tend to drift
into the lowlands, especially in the early evening. While
convergence along the front will be minimal (it`s pretty well
washed-out by mid-afternoon), most HREF members favor lowland
thunderstorms over areas near and east of the Rio Grande, where
the better low level moisture will reside.

For the remainder of the week, precip chances will hinge on the
slow eastward migration of the subtropical ridge. The latest 18Z
NAM is trying to hint at a faster eastward shift, and earlier
return of mid-level moisture over at least the western half of the
CWA. However, model consensus still prefers keeping storms
suppressed and elevation-favoring on Tuesday and Wednesday, with
a fairly well defined monsoonal moisture plume over Arizona
drifting back over the western part of our CWA Thursday, and
spreading over most of the area Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT100-120 to start period with increasing FEW-SCT080-100
after 17Z. Winds will be variable under 10KTS to start period but a
weak back door cold front will shift winds around to the E to SE at
5-15KTS by 12Z to about a line from KTCS-KDMN and then all areas
will shift to the southeast between 15Z-18Z. Isolated 3SM TSRA
BKN030-050 possible over area mountains after 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak back door cold front will move through much of the region
overnight which will help to raise humidity levels back into the 20s
and 30s for the upcoming week and drop temperatures to near normal.
Scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms expected Monday
afternoon and evening, but then mainly just mountain storms through
Wednesday.  For the end of the week into the weekend, a more typical
monsoon pattern is expected to develop with deeper moisture
returning to western zones and a daily chance for thunderstorms.
Winds will not be a factor over the upcoming week except near
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  97  76  96 /   0  20  20   0
Sierra Blanca           70  92  69  92 /   0  20  20   0
Las Cruces              71  95  71  94 /   0  10  20   0
Alamogordo              69  93  69  93 /   0  20  20  10
Cloudcroft              52  69  51  71 /  10  50  40  40
Truth or Consequences   69  95  71  93 /   0  10  20   0
Silver City             61  90  60  87 /   0  20  30  30
Deming                  68  96  69  94 /   0   0  20   0
Lordsburg               68  96  69  95 /   0   0  20  10
West El Paso Metro      76  95  75  94 /   0  10  20   0
Dell City               70  94  69  97 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Hancock            73  97  73  96 /   0  20  20   0
Loma Linda              68  90  69  91 /   0  20  20   0
Fabens                  70  97  70  95 /   0  10  20   0
Santa Teresa            73  96  74  94 /   0  10  20   0
White Sands HQ          70  94  70  94 /   0  20  20   0
Jornada Range           70  95  68  94 /   0  20  20   0
Hatch                   68  97  69  95 /   0  10  20   0
Columbus                71  97  72  95 /   0   0  20   0
Orogrande               71  93  72  94 /   0  10  20   0
Mayhill                 56  77  57  80 /  20  40  40  30
Mescalero               56  80  57  80 /  10  40  30  40
Timberon                55  79  55  80 /  10  50  30  30
Winston                 57  87  56  86 /   0  20  20  20
Hillsboro               65  93  66  91 /   0  10  30  10
Spaceport               68  94  68  92 /   0  10  20   0
Lake Roberts            50  88  53  84 /   0  30  40  30
Hurley                  61  91  63  88 /   0  10  30  10
Cliff                   57  95  58  92 /   0  10  30  20
Mule Creek              56  95  60  90 /   0  10  30  20
Faywood                 64  91  66  89 /   0  20  30  10
Animas                  69  96  69  96 /   0   0  20  10
Hachita                 69  97  69  95 /   0   0  20   0
Antelope Wells          68  92  66  92 /  10  10  10   0
Cloverdale              64  89  65  91 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
