Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 271724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Southwesterly upper flow across the local area this morning. An
upper ridge was off the Pacific Coast, with shortwaves moving
across the Great Lakes and northern Plains. At the surface, high
pressure was centered near the Sabine River. Clear skies and light
winds across the area with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s
over southwest Mississippi to the 40s south of Lake Pontchartrain.

High pressure will slide eastward to the Carolina coast by
Saturday evening. This will allow winds to turn onshore during the
day on Saturday. Might be some high clouds moving through the
southwesterly upper flow today, and potentially some mid level
clouds on Saturday, but overall, should be a nice couple of days.
The airmass will be rather dry today, and trended toward NBM10 for
dew points, as deterministic NBM numbers overnight haven`t been
tracking with observations. That adjustment shouldn`t be necessary
on Saturday as onshore flow brings dew points up quickly. Most
temperature guidance is within a couple degrees through tomorrow,
have trended on the warmer side where there are discrepancies.


(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Troughing moves across the Lower Mississippi River Valley on
Sunday. Precipitable water values that are around 0.3 inches this
morning will be in excess of 1.5 inches on Sunday, which is
approaching the climatologic max for late January. Likely to be a
frontal boundary near the coast on Sunday, with 60 degree dew
points struggling to make it as far north as Interstate 10.
That`ll likely limit any significant strong convection to offshore
or the immediate Louisiana coastline for most of the day, with the
likely scenario of a rainy Sunday with a few embedded, elevated
thunderstorms. Widespread rain amounts of up to 2 inches certainly
wouldn`t be a surprise with locally higher amounts if there are
repeat thunderstorms over an area. Just doesn`t look to be a
significant severe weather producer as instability is very limited
and mid level lapse rates are weak. Most areas should be able to
handle a couple inches of rain as long as it doesn`t fall in an
hour or two, but can`t rule out localized issues.

Upper flow remains southwesterly for much of the week with upper
ridging centered near western Cuba. There`s no real drying noted,
so there could be at least a few showers possible each day.
Another organized round of rain/storms looks likely toward the end
of the week, Thursday or Friday, as another strong shortwave moves
across the area. NBM temperatures trend toward the warmer ECMWF
solutions, and don`t have enough evidence to trend away from those


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through
tomorrow afternoon as a dry and stable high pressure system
remains in place across the area.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds
generally below 10 knots and no significant cloud cover below


Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

At this time, don`t see many high impact concerns over the next 5
days for marine interests outside of thunderstorms, which would
primarily be on Sunday. Winds may rise into the Small Craft
Exercise Caution range late Saturday into Sunday before subsiding


MCB  58  35  65  52 /   0   0   0  40
BTR  60  39  69  57 /   0   0   0  40
ASD  60  39  67  55 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  59  44  67  58 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  57  39  63  55 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  59  36  65  52 /   0   0   0  10




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