Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 171356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore with a weak trough of low pressure to the
west will continue through early next week. A front will approach
and stall near the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 955 AM Wednesday...Minor adjustments to the forecast based
on current temp and dewpoint trends. Otherwise, no changes as
hot/humid conditions will continue with heat advisory in effect
for all areas. Expect isolated to scattered showers to develop
inland this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland.


Pre disc...Upper ridging crests over the area this morning then
will see gradual height falls as shortwave energy associated
with the remnants of Barry slowly approaches from the west. The
surface pattern remains unchanged with high pressure centered
offshore and a lee trough across the piedmont although gradients
tighten some this afternoon bringing moderate southerly winds.
The airmass remains very moist and unstable with PW values
around 2 inches and MUCAPE peaking around 3000-4000 J/Kg. Expect
isol to sct convection along the sea breeze this afternoon,
though most guidance shows less coverage than yesterday. Bulk
shear increases to around 20 kt this afternoon and isol storms
could produce strong downburst winds, similar to yesterday. The
continuing story remain the heat and expect highs in the mid to
upper 90s inland to lower 90s coast, and with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s heat indices will peak around 105-110 this
afternoon and will have another day with a Heat Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Convection will dissipate through the
evening with loss of surface heating but cannot rule out an iso
shower trough the overnight as shortwave energy slides east of
the Appalachians, however most guidance keeps conditions dry.
Very sultry conditions with lows in the mid to upper 70s inland
to lower 80s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...The long term period will be
characterized by mainly zonal upper level flow across the
northern CONUS with the southern U.S. stuck under a broad ridge
through the end of the week, even with a shortwave associated
with the remnants of Barry pushing offshore at the beginning of
the period. By the beginning of next week, a deepening low over
the Gulf of Alaska will help promote a more amplified pattern
across the CONUS with strong ridging over the west and a
deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts to eastern
NC weather is a typical summer surface pattern into early next
week with high pressure over the western Atlantic and a trough
of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the more
pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the
region and increase precip coverage across the region.

Thursday and Friday...The remnants of TC Barry are progged to
become absorbed into mid-level westerlies as it lifts into the
Ohio River Valley today with the mid-level circulation
opening into a wave and pushing across the East Coast Thursday
with the weakening surface low lifting north of the area along a
front. Continued unstable conditions across the area with an
increase in moisture and better cyclonic flow Thu/Thu night should
result in a better chance for showers and storms across the
area. Drier mid-level air should work in as the shortwave
exits Friday. Kept chance PoPs for Thursday but lowered PoPs
Friday as the shortwave energy departs. Continued hot and very
humid with highs above average in the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices around 105 or slightly higher. Oppressively high dew
points will keep lows sultry in the upper 70s, and would not be
surprised to see some spots fail to break 80.

Saturday and Sunday...Continued hot and very humid with the
hottest temperatures likely for Saturday. Thicknesses increase
with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ C across eastern NC. As the
upper level trough begins to amplify heights will fall, but
temperatures will be very similar for the weekend remaining
above average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points remain high
and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered convection is
possible along the seabreeze each day but with the ridge firmly
in control coverage will be limited. Capping PoPs at 30% for the
period.

Monday and Tuesday...A break in the heat is finally in sight as
the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heights across the
region and helping to usher a front south across the mid-
Atlantic and into the Carolinas by mid-week, although the timing
of this front has its typical spread this far out. Regardless,
the front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a
pronounced mid-level shortwave. Due to timing differences will
cap PoPs at chance for now. It should be noted that the front is
expected to stall with plenty of moisture to work with and
multiple subtle lobes of mid-level energy riding along the
boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are possible,
although the question of where the front stalls is still up in
the air. Behind the front highs will struggle to crack 90, and
fall even farther by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through the TAF
period. Isol to sct convection this afternoon could also bring
brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Mid-high clouds and light
SW winds expected to limit fog development again tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Typical summertime pattern this period
with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure
inland, with mainly scattered showers and storms Thu and Fri,
and more isolated coverage Sat and Sun. Patchy fog or stratus
will be possible early each morning, esp. in areas that receive
rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 955 AM Wednesday...The latest buoy observations are
showing SW winds 5-15 knots and seas 1-2 ft. Winds will increase
later this afternoon 15-20 kts and seas will build to 2-3 ft
this afternoon.

Prev Dis...High pressure will remain centered offshore
with a trough of low pressure across the piedmont. Gradients
will tighten through the day and remain tight tonight as low
pressure assoc with the remnants of Barry lift well north of the
area. S to SW winds around 5-15 kt this morning increase to
10-20 kt with higher gusts this afternoon and tonight. Seas
around 2-3 ft this morning build to 3-5 ft this afternoon and
tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...The pressure gradient will be tightening
through late week as the inland surface trough strengthens and the
pressure gradient tightens. This will result in moderate SW flow
15-20 kt Thu and persisting into Friday night. This will aid in seas
building to 3-5 feet with 6 foot seas possibly in the outer central
waters. The gradient relaxes somewhat over the weekend but SW winds are
still expected to remain 10-20 knots, but seas will fall to around 3-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/BM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/BM/MS


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