Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 302057
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
357 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An active, wet weather pattern is expected across the area for
the coming week. High pressure briefly builds into the area
tonight and tomorrow before multiple waves of low pressure bring
unsettled weather for the rest of the work week. High pressure
then builds back into the area Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM Mon...Latest analysis shows a 1015mb low, per RAP
analysis, several miles off the coast of Cape Hatteras and
lifting further out to sea as very weak high pressure attempts
to build over the mid-Atlantic, all under a belt of fast-moving
mid-level westerlies. A special 15z MHX sounding revealed a
shallow but pronounced low-level frontal inversion, which has
kept an expansive deck of low stratus socked over our entire FA.

Clouds are expected to gradually break starting early tonight
over the coastal plain as drier air works its way across the
region. However, as high pressure gradually strengthens over the
area and strengthens the low-level inversion, widespread fog is
anticipated to quickly fill in with light winds and freshly
moistened soils. Guidance today has continually pointed to at
least locally dense fog, and Dense Fog Advisories are possible
for the FA early tomorrow morning.

Low clouds and fog will keep the diurnal curve relatively flat
tonight, with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 40s north
of Highway 264 and 50s for the rest of the FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Mon...With weak mixing and a shallow but fully
saturated low-levels fog will be slow to lift. Hi-res guidance
soundings indicate low stratus will continue hang on through
much of the day tomorrow, but mainly dry weather is expected
until late afternoon and evening as all layers above roughly
900mb are quite dry.

Two distinct features will drive the precip chances, the first
being a wave of low pressure riding along the frontal boundary
that pushed through today (which will be decaying tomorrow).
Model trends have pointed to any precip with this feature
remaining offshore, but a slight chance of some rain across the
Crystal Coast is not out of the question. The second, and more
probable feature, will be the cold front currently impinging on
the Appalachians expected to migrate towards the Carolinas late.
The best dynamic lift across the mid-Atlantic will not coincide
with the deeper moisture further south, but some light rain is
possible closer to northeastern NC.

Low clouds again keep the diurnal curve depressed, with highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...High pressure briefly builds in through
Tuesday but a progressive and wet pattern continues through the
remainder of the week with upper ridging centered across the
southeast Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean bringing near
zonal mid level flow across the eastern CONUS. A series of weak
shortwave troughs and sfc low reflections will track across the
Southern states and lift along the Carolina coast through the
middle of the week will keep mostly cloudy skies with periods of
rain. The strongest system expected to impact the area Thursday
into Friday as a robust southern stream trough pushes across
the Gulf states and Southeast. High pressure builds into the
area Friday night and Saturday, with another offshore low
possibly impacting the area late weekend. Temps expected to be
near or a few degrees above normal for Tuesday, then drop to
near or slightly below normal through the remainder of the week,
though there may be some variability depending of the eventual
track of the individual low pressure systems. Coldest day still
looks to be Saturday with highs struggling to get into the mid
40s, with 850mb temps 0 to -4C. Still no real ptype concerns at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tues aft/...
As of 1215 PM Mon...Although -RA is leaving the terminals this
afternoon, guidance is in strong agreement IFR and LIFR
conditions will hold strong this afternoon under a frontal
inversion. Guidance has trended more aggressive with longer
lasting IFR cigs, although there are still hints of a brief
improvement to MVFR after 22-23z as some drier low-level air
noses into the area and attempts to mix down. More widespread
IFR/LIFR is expected overnight, especially after 05-06z, as
subsidence inversion strengthens with high pressure weakly
building into the area. Both low cigs and fog, likely dense in
the early morning hours, are expected to last at least a few
hours into Tues morning with very poor mixing.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...A series of low pressure systems will impact
the area through Friday. Increasing confidence in widespread
sub-VFR conditions through the period. Areas of fog likely Tue
morning, with vsbys slowing improving through low stratus will
likely linger with potential for IFR. Periods of rain likely
Tuesday night through Friday, with best chances Thu into early
Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 355 PM Mon...Regional observations indicate mainly
northerly winds of 5-10 knots on the backside of a weak
departing low off the coast with seas 2-4 feet. Winds over the
waters will remain northerly at 5 knots or less as weak high
pressure attempts to build over the waters. Only appreciable
uptick in winds will be late tomorrow, mainly owing an
approaching cold front from the north. This will be felt mainly
across the northern waters with northeasterly winds around 10
kts. Seas through the period hover at around 2-3 feet.

The light winds and building high pres will likely lead to a
setup of dense marine fog tonight into tomorrow morning, with
vsby`s expected to be around 1 mi or less at times, esp for the
interior rivers and sounds.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Northerly winds will increase to 15-25 kt late
Tue night and Wed with seas building to 5-7 ft. SCA conditions
likely. NE-NNW winds 10-15 kt Thu into Thu night with seas 3-5
ft. Increasing northerly winds Fri 15-25 kt with seas building
to 5-7 ft and another round of SCA conditions likely continuing
into the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...CQD/MS/OJC
MARINE...CQD/MS/OJC


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