Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 200739
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
239 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area today. High pressure
will control the weather across the region Wednesday through
Friday. An area of low pressure will affect the area on
Saturday, followed by another one on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 240 am Tue...Areas of fog persist across the forecast
area. However, visibilities have been improving inland over the
past few hours, but remain low closer to the coast. Will
continue to mention fog in the zones for early this morning
unless conditions significantly improve. The cold front will
pass through eastern NC from the west this afternoon and will be
off the coast by this evening. Lift and convergence along/ahead
of the front is weak and have kept PoPs capped at 30%. Any
shower activity will end quickly from west to east this
afternoon as the front approaches and then moves off the coast.
Highs will range in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 240 am Tue...Forecast soundings and time sections show a
very dry airmass across the region tonight under mostly clear
skies with a light northwest wind. Fog is not forecast. Lows
will range in the mid/upper 30s inland to lower/mid 40s Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Mostly quiet weather is expected through
Friday as surface high pressure prevails across the area. The
models continue to signal more amplification in the upper flow
beginning this weekend and continuing into next week as a mean
trough is carved out over the northeast. The models spawn a
couple of surface lows, one Fri night into Sat and another one
Monday but differ on their tracks. Tuesday...A cold front with
limited moisture will move through the area. Temps are forecast
to warm into the 60s ahead of the front. Will continue slight
chance PoPs though precipitation amounts will be light.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will build over the
area from the north through the period producing cool dry
weather across Eastern NC mid through late week. Highs Wed will
be in the 50s. A reinforcing dry cold front will move through
Wed night into early Thursday and 850mb temps drop below zero
across the northern half of the area. Thanksgiving Day looks
like the coldest day with highs only in the upper 40s to low
50s, coolest across the northern half of the forecast area,
combined with a brisk NNE wind. A hard freeze inland will be
possible Thu night-early Fri morning. Highs Fri warm back into
the 50s. Could see a few coastal showers late in the day Fri as
the flow becomes easterly and moisture increases along the SE
coast ahead of an approaching coastal warm front.

Saturday through Sunday...Still looking like Eastern NC will be
mild both days with highs well into the 60s. A developing surface
low is forecast to impact the area Fri night into Sat but the
track is still uncertain with some models offshore and some
inland of the NC coast. Still looking like a period of heavy
rain and strong winds for the area, with any severe threat
dependent on the track of the system (an inland track would be
more favorable for severe weather). Based on trends in the
models and in collaboration with adjacent WFOs have increased
PoPs to likely Sat. Sunday looks much less favorable for
widespread/significant rainfall and will only have a slight
chance PoP.

Monday...The next surface low is forecast to impact the area
Monday but there are large model differences with the timing,
track and intensity of this system. For now will indicate chance
PoPs with highs again in the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 240 am Tue...Conditions have been slowly improving at the
4 area terminals over the past few hours. It`s now a mixed bag
ranging from LIFR to MVFR. VFR conditions will develop quickly
after sunrise, as a light southwest flow develops ahead of an
approaching cold front. MVFR possible in scattered light showers
along/ahead of the front through early afternoon before the
front moves off the coast. Winds will become light northwest and
skies will become clear throughout the region by late
afternoon/early evening as a dry airmass builds in.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 310 PM Mon...VFR conditions are expected into Fri with
high pressure over the area. Sub VFR conditions are expected Fri
night into Sat as a developing low moves across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 240 am Tue...A cold front will pass through the marine
zones from the west today. The flow will be westerly today,
averaging 10-15 knots north of Cape Hatteras and 15-20 knots
south, with 10-15 knots on the sounds and rivers. Winds tonight
will be northwest to north, averaging 15-20 knots on the coastal
waters and 10-15 knots on the sounds and rivers. Seas today and
tonight will average 2-4 knots north of Ocracoke and 3-5 feet
south.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 310 PM Mon...SCA conditions are likely Thursday and
Thursday night, with gusty N/NE winds and elevated seas.
Although winds will diminish slightly to NE 15-20 kt Fri,
elevated seas around 6 ft could linger through the day,
especially over the outer central waters. Then Fri night and
Sat, strong winds and dangerous seas will be possible with the
potential for Gale Force winds Sat as developing low pressure
impacts the waters.

NW winds 15-20 kt Tue night behind a cold front becomes N-NW
10-15 kt Wed. 3-5 ft seas Tue night subside to 2-3 ft Wed. A
dry cold front will move through the waters Wed night and early
Thursday with strong high pressure building in from the north.
Gusty N/NE winds 20-25 kt will develop, allowing seas to build
to 4-8 ft Thu and Thu night. E/NE flow 10-20 kt Friday,
strongest south of Cape Hatteras. Elevated seas 4-6 ft could
drop briefly below 6 ft Fri afternoon/early evening, before
building back above 6 ft Fri night and Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ130-131.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/HSA
MARINE...SK/HSA


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