Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 151356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area through much of next
week. Another back door cold front will move through by Tuesday.
Tropical Cyclone Humberto will bring rough marine conditions and
strong rip currents to the waters next week but little other
direct impacts to eastern North Carolina. Fall-like weather
filters in to close out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 950 AM Sunday...Surface trough apparently in mesoanalysis
just off the coast at late morning. This trough is producing
showers and a few tstms well east of the Outer Banks. Latest
HRRR/3km NAM shows isolated showers and storms this afternoon.
Instability is limited, but will continue to mention a
spotty thunderstorm or two. Based on the high-res models, did
extend the slight chance PoP northeast across the Albemarle
Sound region, otherwise no changes to the overall forecast for
the afternoon. High temperatures should be in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sun...With showers dissipating by evening once again
looking at a mainly dry Sunday night with a rouge shower or two
possibly making their way onshore overnight with the coastal trough
redeveloping. Fog and stratus threat also expected once again with
light to calm winds. Lows expected to be at or slightly above 70
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...The work week will start off with a strong
upper ridge centered over the central CONUS, and upper trough
over New England and Mid-Atlantic states, and TC Humberto
centered east of Jacksonville, FL. Weak high pressure will be
ridging into the the area Monday with subsidence aloft keeping
mainly dry conditions, however cannot rule out an isolated
shower moving in off the coastal waters. Meanwhile, TC Humberto
is expected to make an ENE turn well east of the GA/SC coast.
Temps remain a few degrees above climo with high in the mid to
upper 80s.

Weak shortwave energy and an attendant backdoor cold front
pushes south across the area Tuesday bringing isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area while
Humberto continues to slowly track ENE well to the south.
Strong high pressure builds in from the north late Tuesday
through the end of the week while Humberto continues to track
ENE and eventually NE across the western Atlantic. Tight
pressure gradients between these systems will bring breezy
northeast winds and a cooler and drier airmass that will give
us a first hint of fall. Temps expected in the upper 70s to
around 80 inland to mid 70s OBX Wednesday and Thursday. Gradients
begin to relax as we move into Friday and Saturday as the high
becomes centered over the area bringing lighter winds and a
moderating airmass with dry conditions continuing across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 740 AM Sun...Predominant LIFR or worse across eastern NC
early this morning with visibilities as low as a quarter mile
and ceilings generally below 500 ft. Given how dense some of the
fog and stratus is, don`t have flight restrictions lifting until
around 14z, and then a gradual transition to MVFR and then VFR
by the afternoon. Isolated showers this afternoon could bring
brief periods of sub-VFR conditions but low confidence in
coverage precludes mention in TAFs for now. Redevelopment of fog
and flight restrictions appears likely again early Monday
morning.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected for most of the
long term, though patchy fog will be possible again Tuesday
morning and could see brief periods of sub-VFR with a few
showers Tuesday afternoon as a backdoor cold front pushes across
the area. Strong high pressure builds in late Tue through Thu
with Humberto passing well offshore bringing tightening
pressure gradients and gusty north to northeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 955 AM Sunday...Only very minor changes to the marine
forecast as E/NE winds continue at 5-10 knots with seas 4-5
feet. Wave models are a bit overdone on seas through this
afternoon and think seas will remain below SCA for the period.
Into tonight, winds remain easterly generally 5 to 10 knots
except southern waters where winds will be 10-15 knots. Seas
hold around 4-5 feet.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...SCA conditions expected through much of the
long term with large seas and and dangerous surf conditions as
swells from TC Humberto impact the coastal waters.

Weak high pressure centered off the Delmarva Peninsula will
continue to ridge into the area Monday with TC Humberto
beginning to turn to the ENE well south of the area. Gradients
remain somewhat pinched with NE winds around 10-20 kt. Swells
from Humberto will also being to build across the waters Monday
with 4-6 ft across the southern/central waters and 3-5 ft
northern waters expected to develop by the afternoon.

A backdoor cold front will push across the area Tuesday with
strong high pressure building in form the north through the
remainder of the week and TC Humberto continuing to track ENE
south of the area. NE winds continue to strengthen through Wed,
peaking around 20-30 kt, then gradually diminish into Thursday.
Swell from Humberto will peak around 8-11 ft Wednesday into
Wednesday night, the begin to slowly subside Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...CTC/SK/MS


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