Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 221958
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
358 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the area tonight then move
offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak front will drop south
into the region Wednesday night and Thursday then dissipate. A
stronger cold front will move through late in the week, followed
by high pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM Mon...Sfc high pres will become centered S of the
region. Expect sct Cu over the area this aftn to dissipate this
evening with mclr skies overnight. Good radiational cooling will
lead to lows in upr 40s cooler inland spots to 50 beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Mon...Atms will remain dry with cont mclr skies.
As high pres slides offshore will see SW winds grad develop and
coupled with rising thicknesses will lead to highs in lower 80s
inland to 70s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Monday...High pressure will be positioned off the
coast Tuesday night into Wednesday with a backdoor cold front
dropping into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a cold front Friday
and Friday night, followed by drier weather over the weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...High pressure off the Southeast
coast will be pushes southward through mid week while upper
ridging flattens as a mid level shortwave moves across the Mid-
Atlantic states and the attendant backdoor cold front pushes
into the region Wednesday night and dissipates Thursday. Models
slightly wetter ahead and along the front and increased PoPs to
slight chance Wednesday afternoon and night. Included slight
chance of thunder for Wednesday afternoon with MUCAPE peaking
around 1000-1500 J/Kg and steep low level lapse rates but
instability decreases in the evening and expect mainly isolated
showers overnight. Generally dry Thursday but cannot rule out
an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon with the
lingering frontal boundary and sea breeze developing in the
afternoon. Temps will be above normal with highs in the low to
mid 80s inland to mid to upper 70s coast. Lows will mainly be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Friday and Friday Night...A cold front and associated mid-level
shortwave will cross the area Friday and Friday night.
Precipitable water values increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches
Friday and Friday night and continue high chance PoPs for this
period. With surface-based CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg, will
include some scattered thunderstorms, but wind fields do not
merit any severe threat at this time. Temperatures will be
cooler Friday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

Saturday through Monday...Axis of mid-level trough moves
offshore fairly quickly Saturday with generally dry and slightly
cooler conditions over the weekend. High pressure will be
centered over the area Saturday, then will slide offshore Sunday
into Monday while continuing to ridge into the region. Flow
aloft will generally be zonal with a few weak disturbances
moving through the area which may bring an isolated shower
mainly during the afternoon hours. Highs Sat expected in the low
to mid 70s inland to mid to upper 60s coast, then will warm a
few degrees each day Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tue/...
As of 1235 PM Mon...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the TAF period with mostly clr skies. With light to calm winds
tonight cant completely rule out some patchy early morn fog but
not adding to fcst given low confidence and guidance showing
none.

Long Term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 345 PM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Thursday, but cannot rule out brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions in showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night as a
backdoor front pushes into the area. Given light winds, some
patchy morning fog is possible as well, but extent will be
limited. Areas of sub VFR conditions will be possible Friday as
a cold front and associated mid-level shortwave produce
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday and Friday
night. High pressure builds into the area Saturday with VFR
conditions dominating.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tue/...
As of 230 PM Mon...Good boating conditions expected this
period. Wind dir will be all over the place this evening with
various sea/sound breezes...speed will remain aob 15 kts.
Overnight as high pres becomes centered to the S expect light
WNW winds. As the high slides off the coast Tue winds will
become SW below 15 kts. Lingering SE swell will keep seas in 2
to 4 foot range thru period.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 345 AM Monday...Southwest winds increase to 10-20 kt with
seas building to 3-5 ft Tue night and Wed ahead of a backdoor
cold front that will drop into the area Wednesday night. Wind
become N/NE blo 15 kt by late Wed night behind the front, then
will be variable around 10 kt or less Thu with the front
dissipating across the area and winds becoming predominantly
southerly by late in the day. SW winds increase to around 10-20
kt late Thu night and Fri ahead of the next frontal system that
will cross the area Fri night, followed by a N/NE surge around
15-25 kt late Fri night and Sat. Seas briefly drop to 2-4 ft Thu
but build back to 3-5 ft by Fri and Fri night and could build to
6 ft Sat with the northerly surge behind the front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK


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