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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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548
FXUS62 KMHX 222324
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
624 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure just to the north will drift offshore tonight.
A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday night into
Thursday, then move offshore Thursday night. High pressure
builds in from the west by late week into early weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 625 PM Tuesday...Latest sfc analysis shows strong
elongated high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast
this evening. High will slide offshore tonight. Skies will
remain mainly clear thru the evening then will see some increase
in clouds late as low lvl flow turns SE to S. With clear skies
and calm winds this evening expect temps to drop quickly and
went on cool side of guidance with around 25 inland to 30
beaches. Expect temps to lvl off late and likely rise along the
coast as winds become SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...Much warmer as low lvl flow becomes S
and increases between offshore high pres and slowly approaching
cold front. Thicknesses support highs mainly low/mid 60s with
beaches a bit cooler with flow off cold near shore water. Expect
good deal of clouds across the region as moisture slowly
increases, however not expecting much precip with just slight
pops near coast and SW tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wed...A slow moving cold front will impact the
area Wednesday and Thursday, with a return to warmer and wetter
conditions. Then, drier and colder air return for Friday and the
weekend. A coastal storm may impact Eastern NC Sunday night and
into early next week.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Rainfall associated with the
slow moving cold front will move into the region Wednesday
night, and have PoPs ramping up from chance to likely. Have
categorical PoPs for the period of heaviest rain Thursday
morning, and as the front pushes offshore later in the day have
showers tapering off from west to east. Have added the
possibility of an isolated thunderstorm to the forecast Thursday
morning, as some instability may develop right along the coast,
and given strong dynamic environment, a few rain showers could
develop into low topped thunderstorms. Additionally, guidance
indicates that several hours of sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph
mainly along the Outer Banks Thursday, and a Wind Advisory may
eventually be needed. There is some uncertainty
with the timing of the frontal progression and arrival of the
strongest winds, but generally prefer the ECMWF solution of
bringing the strongest winds to the Outer Banks midday. Highs
on Thursday are again expected to be in the low to mid 60s.

Friday and Saturday...Behind this storm system a deep longwave
trough will anchor itself over the most of the CONUS centered
over the Midwest and Deep South. A secondary Arctic cold front
will move into the region late Friday, bringing another blast
of frigid weather for the weekend. High temps on Friday will
reach the mid to upper 40s, and then low temps will fall into
the low to mid 20s inland Friday night, with low 30s expected
along the immediate shoreline. Latest model trends don`t show as
strong of a cold air blast, and heights will begin building
Saturday morning, which will allow temps to rebound into the mid
to upper 40s by the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday...A coastal storm is possible later Sunday
and into Monday. However, latest forecast guidance has muddied
the waters more, with most models now showing a suppressed and
weaker solution with the low pressure system. This would mean
mostly dry weather for both days, which is in contrast to
guidance over the past several model runs which showed some
decent rainfall and impacts to the area. Will still hold on to
PoPs for both days, but have lowered PoPs to mostly slight
chance, and will look for some consistency on the next set of
model runs. As of now, temperatures appear mild with highs in
the 50s and low in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 625 PM Tuesday...VFR shld cont to dominate much of this
period. Mainly clr skies will cont into the evening as high pres
crosses just to the N. Later tonight as the high slides
offshore low lvl flow will become SE to S and expect sct to bkn
SCU to spread onshore. For now appears cigs that develop will be
mainly in VFR range Wed with most of rain holding off til Wed
night...though could see periods of MVFR ceilings after 12z.
Southerly wind gusts to 20 kt Wed afternoon.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 320 AM Tues....A cold front will bring sub-VFR ceilings
and rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday. VFR conditions
are expected to return by Thursday evening and last through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wed/...
As of 625 PM Tuesday...High pres wl pass offshore just to the N
tonight. Latest obs show ENE winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft
north of Ocracoke and 2-3 ft south. ENE 5 to 15 kt thru the
evening will become SE to S late. Seas of 3 to 5 ft wl subside
to 2 to 4 ft. S winds will increase to 15 to 25 kts later Wed as
pres grdnt tightens between offshore high pres and slowly
approaching cold front. Seas will build to 3 to 5 ft Wed aftn.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Tues...Added a Gale Watch for the Albemarle Sound
and Alligator River for Thursday, resulting in Gale Watches now
covering all marine areas except the Tar/Pamlico and Neuse/Bay
rivers, where a Small Craft Advisory has been issued.

Winds and seas Wednesday will be building as southerly flow
increases ahead of the front. Winds will be 20-30 kts by
Wednesday night and seas will range from 6-10 ft. Winds will
peak late Thursday morning at SSW 30-40 kts with gusts 40-50
kts, and seas will build to 11-17 ft by Thursday afternoon.
Winds turn to the NW at 15-25 kts behind the front Thursday
night, and then continue out of the NW 10-20 kts for Friday and
Saturday. Seas will slowly subside to 5-10 ft by Friday morning,
and then to 3-5 ft by early Saturday morning.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday
     for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
     for AMZ135.
     Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for AMZ130-131.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SGK/CB
AVIATION...RF/CQD/SGK/CB
MARINE...RF/CQD/SGK/CB
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