932
FXUS64 KOUN 182317
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

 - Hot and humid conditions expected this weekend into next week.

 - Rain chances will be near zero through the middle of the
 upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

An MCV, which is progressing east-northeastward along the
northwest periphery of the upper ridge, was quite prominent on
visible satellite and radar imagery this morning over the Texas
panhandle. There have been a few light showers associated with
this MCV over northwest Oklahoma. While most model guidance is
void of QPF for today, the 12Z runs of the NSSL MPAS models do
show localized rainfall amounts up to 1 inch today as a result of
this MCV (mainly the northern tier of counties). Rain potential
could be mitigated with the drier air mixing into the area and
track of the MCV. Thunderstorm and heavier rainfall potential
should remain to our north. However, we would not be surprised if
far northern Oklahoma saw isolated showers/thunder.

Afternoon high temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees higher
than yesterday. Recent observational trends have shown higher
dewpoint temperatures than previously forecast over parts of
northern, east-central, and southeastern Oklahoma. A Heat Advisory
has been issued until 7PM for parts of southeastern Oklahoma,
where several hours of 100 to 105 degree heat index values are
expected. While heat index values are nearing criteria levels
over parts of north-central Oklahoma, the duration should be
shorter with drier air expected to lower these within the next
hour or two.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The heat intensifies over our area this weekend, with high temperatures
in the upper 90`s to over 100 degrees, and sunny skies. While dewpoint
temperatures decrease some tomorrow, heat index values could reach
criteria level tomorrow over north-central and southeastern Oklahoma.
A Heat Advisory is more likely on Sunday with an uptick in low-
level moisture.

A lee-side surface trough will maintain breezy southerly winds with
gusts to 25 mph possible both days.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The upper ridge dominates the synoptic pattern for the southern
and southeastern CONUS. Breezy southerly winds and dry conditions
persist through the long term with high temperatures rising to
slightly above-average.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Winds are expected to diminish across most of the area tonight,
though northwest Oklahoma will likely remain breezy. Southerly
winds become gusty during the day tomorrow. VFR conditions will
prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         74  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-042-043-047-
     048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14