387
FXUS64 KOUN 140635
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

 - Rain chances continue today and into Tuesday, mainly in
   southeastern Oklahoma.

 - Warming trend this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The area of showers and storms in southeast Oklahoma have moved
northeast and are moving into western Arkansas at the moment.
However we have a few areas to watch for later today. First is the
convection associated with a wave across central Texas. Showers
associated with this feature are moving northeast just south of
the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. These showers will likely spread
into southeastern Oklahoma later this morning and thunderstorms
will become more likely with diurnal destabilization.

For this afternoon, a number of models suggest the potential of
isolated showers and storms stretching west across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas toward the Texas South Plains. The
current shower and thunderstorm development in the Lubbock and
Silverton area do indicate some of this potential. These current
showers and storms are moving southwest, so this initial
development will likely not affect our area this morning, but
lends credence to the potential that some of these models show.
This potential is not accounted for well in the National Blend of
Models, so have expanded some low POPs west and added the mention
of isolated showers/storms this afternoon and early evening.

A third area we are watching is an MCV moving from Coahuila into
southwest Texas in the Eagle Pass Texas area with showers and
storms developing ahead of that between Del Rio and
Fredericksburg. This MCV may not be fully resolved by the models
yet, but there is still some signal of this moving northeast
through Texas and toward southeastern Oklahoma late tonight or
tomorrow. So there is at least slight chance POPs in southeastern
Oklahoma after 06Z.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

We continue with some precipitation chances for Tuesday in
southeastern Oklahoma with any potential development associated
with the Coahuila MCV mentioned above, and for diurnal potential
close to the mid-level trough axis that has been stuck over
Oklahoma for a couple of days. But as this trough axis shifts
eastward and weakens, our precipitation chances decrease in
theory. Some of the synoptic models do suggest the potential for
another MCV or some sort of shortwave to move toward north Texas
and southern Oklahoma Tuesday night and Wednesday with some
localized QPF signal. There is enough uncertainty on the MCV
development as well as it`s potential path and timing that am
hesitant to introduce POPs over too broad of an area, so we will
let NBM do its thing for now and watch trends over the next couple
of forecast cycles.

Meanwhile to the north, a shortwave moving through the
northern/central Plains help push a cold front south through
Kansas and approach the Oklahoma border late Wednesday night.
Although the strongest QPF signal remains to our north in Kansas,
there is a least some potential for showers/storms in northern
Oklahoma late Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The mid and upper level flow late this week remains to the north,
and precipitation chances will remain relatively low and confined
to the north for any potential convection sneaking into the area
from Kansas. Geopotential heights are forecast to rise slowly late
this week, so although a mid-level ridge does not build strongly
into the area initially, a warming trends is expected. By Sunday
though, there begin to be signals of a mid-level high building in
Texas with the ridge expanding north into Oklahoma. If this
occurs, we may start seeing the potential of triple-digit
temperatures in the area by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

ll terminals should remain in the VFR category through most of
the forecast. However, reduced visibilities in patchy fog and/or
low stratus may lower some of our terminals into a MVFR category
between 12-15Z. Terminal KDUA is expected to lower to MVFR category
between 12-18Z with increasing stratus lowering ceilings and
visibilities in light rain. There is a low probability of 30% for
-TSRA for terminal KDUA from 18-23Z with a return of storms in
 southeast Oklahoma. Surface winds should stay light & variable becoming
 easterly to southerly in direction up to 10 kts by 18Z across
 our terminals as a surface low deepens across the U.S. Northern
 Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  72  93  75 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK         92  72  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  92  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           91  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  69  93  74 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         89  73  94  75 /  40  20  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68