Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Today the mid-level ridge axis centered over the High Plains will
continue to extend further north into the Dakotas before gradually
tracking eastward into the CWA overnight tonight.  At the surface,
low pressure was centered over IA, with light southwesterly winds
supporting warm-air advection into the region.  The combination of
this southwesterly flow, deep mixing, and mostly sunny skies will
result in near-record high temperatures into the 90s today.  While
dewpoints are starting out in the 60s this morning, several models
show dewpoints droppings into the 50s by this afternoon as the ridge
axis shifts further east toward the area.  As a result, these lower
dewpoints during peak heating will help to keep heat indices in the
mid/upper 90s.  As the ridge axis progresses eastward, models show
an embedded wave developing along the eastern edge of the ridge over
MO, with some models showing the potential for a few high-based
isolated storms to develop in MO and possibly even into far eastern
KS.  However, with very limited forcing present with this shortwave,
have kept a dry forecast going at this time.  Mostly clear skies are
expected for tonight, with the light southwesterly winds aiding in
keeping low temperatures in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

On Sunday the midlevel low pressure will be located over UT with a
ridge aloft extending from TX to WS. A lee-side trough in the
High Plains causes a dry line to set up in western KS. Storms are
forecasted to develop along the dry line during peak heating.
With a lack of synoptic forcing over the High Plains the
convective coverage appears to be low therefore decreasing the
chances of cold pools congealing into an MCS. High temperatures
should reach the lower to mid 90s with dew points in the lower to
mid 60s. As a result heat indices range between the lower 90s to
near 100. On Monday the midlevel low pressure begins to lift
northeastward becoming an open wave in the process. The surface
dry line will still be present in the High Plains and should be
the focus for convective initiation Monday afternoon along with
the Front Range in CO and WY. Slightly better forcing could
result in more widespread coverage and the chances for MCS
development, but the chances for a complex to reach central KS
are relatively low. On Tuesday the midlevel shortwave trough
tracks over the Northern Plains pushing a weak synoptic boundary
into the area. This boundary could be the focus for convection on
Wednesday although given the distance from the main wave it is
uncertain if experience any forcing. On the other hand both the
GFS and ECMWF show a shortwave that originates over the eastern
Pacific lifting northeastward over region, which could be a
trigger for storms. The other uncertainty is the remnants of a
tropical storm forecasted to make landfall in the northern Gulf on
Monday. As it tracks over the MS valley it could eventually
alter the midlevel flow and potential forcing. An expansive ridge
aloft begins to build out of Mexico potentially pushing the main
storm track northward. Heat would be the most likely scenario it
that were to occur with heat indices approaching 100 degrees by
late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR prevails through forecast period with light southerly winds
below 10 mph. A weak boundary drops southward tomorrow afternoon,
providing a focus for potential isolated TSRA in northwest MO.
Confidence is too low for mention at this time, however could see
a few high based cumulus as a result.




SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Prieto is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.