Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Surface high pressure was centered over South Dakota with the ridge
axis extending south into northwest Oklahoma. Some clouds were
moving southward across northeast Kansas into Missouri at 08Z and
expect them to move out of east central Kansas by or shortly after
sunrise this morning. A mid level ridge will move eastward into
Kansas later today and tonight as an upper low moves east into the
Four Corners by 12Z Friday. The surface high will gradually move off
to the east through early Friday. Winds will be light from the north
early this morning gradually veering to the east this afternoon,
then to the southeast tonight. Mostly clear skies are expected after
mid morning with only an increase in high clouds in north central
Kansas later tonight. Highs today range from the mid 50s to the
lower 60s. Lows tonight will be below normal once again with
readings in the mid 30s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Transitioning into the relatively quiet long term period, the only
appreciable chance of precipitation is still on track for
Saturday into Sunday. The accomplice -- an upper level trough --
to the weekend rain chances is currently coming ashore in central
California. With the upper level blocking pattern remaining firm
across Greenland, 00Z solutions continue to steer the trough axis along
the Red River. As a result, QPF amounts are expected to remain
0.25 or less with higher amounts across southern KS and OK. The
trough axis will push east into the mid-south region Sunday,
ending precipitation Sunday afternoon. Surface ridge axis will
build into the region on Monday, setting the stage for a beautiful
spring day! High temperatures are progged to approach 70 with
light winds. Attention then turns back to the west Tuesday as an
upper-level trough within the northern stream of the split flow
encroaches the central and northern Plains. An associated weak
cold front is progged by all solutions to push through the CWA
Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation chances look minimal given the
limited available moisture and the northern track of the trough. A
secondary surface ridge looks to overspread the area for midweek,
yielding light winds with temperatures in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds light north
will veer to the east southeast at less than 10 kts in the 23Z-02Z
time period,




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