Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 230434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1134 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Southerly flow currently shallow with nw flow aloft. Thus, low
cloud return late tonight will be lacking, with no low clouds
development seen near the coast attm. A few delayed high mvfr
cloud decks, btwn 23/12-15z, may clip the ktyr and klfk terminals.
Few to sct cumulus coverage Fri aftn across area with cirrus
decks beginning to increase. South winds already near 10 kts, will
increase durg the morning wind to speeds near 15 kts east to 20
to 25 kts west sections of area thru the aftn hours. These south
winds will diminish only slightly, if at all, durg the eve hours
thru 23/06z. A few mvfr decks may reach klfk prior to 23/06z, with
clouds increasing afterwards./07/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1003 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

High pressure remains in firm control of our weather this evening
as the sfc center gradually shifts eastward overnight. As a result
of this eastward shift, light southerly winds will maintain slight
breeze overnight over much of the region. Therefore, expect low
temperatures to run nearly 10 degrees warmer compared to morning
lows earlier today despite mostly clear skies during much of the
overnight period. Some altocu cloud cover currently across central
and northeast Oklahoma will begin to encroach on our NW zones
after midnight and have made slight adjustments to sky cover to
account for this trend. Otherwise, the forecast is largely on
track and no other changes are needed at this time. Updated text
products will be out shortly.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

Sfc high pressure and nw flow aloft responsible for our fair wx
over the last few days. However this pattern will begin to shift
as sly sfc flow brings increasing moisture and the upper level
pattern becomes more disturbed.

Upper ridge just making its way ewd into the western Plains this
aftn will continue shifting ewd through Friday. Shortwave hot on
its heels will eventually over top it Friday night into Saturday,
bringing a weak cold front into our nrn areas before the
shortwave moves int he OH River Valley, leaving the cold front
stalled across our region Saturday. A few shwrs/tstms will be
possible in the vicinity of the front, but coverage should remain
only isold to sct.

Upper flow to become swly across our region as we move into
Sunday ahead of an approaching upper trof over the wrn CONUS. A
series of disturbances in the sw flow aloft will begin interacting
with a new, more sharply defined, slow-moving cold front, which
will initially affect portions of N TX/Central OK before moving
into our region Tuesday. Coverage/intensity of convection to
increase by Tuesday night, with a heavy rain axis setting up along
the front, somewhere between the I-30 and I-20 corridors.
Confidence is increasing on this location, as models continue to
demonstrate reasonable run-to-run and inter-model consistency.
Considering the time of year, it almost goes without saying that
at least a few isold severe storms cannot be ruled out. However,
it appears attm that the overwhelming primary threat with this
weather system will be heavy rain/flooding. The picture is a
little less clear for Wednesday/Wednesday night, as models diverge
a bit in the placement of front/heavy rain axis. Potential for
heavy rainfall looks to linger even beyond the day 7 timeframe,
but models diverge even more at this point, so increased
consistency will be welcomed in the coming model runs. /12/


SHV  53  80  63  80 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  48  77  61  80 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  51  74  61  81 /   0  10  20  20
TXK  53  77  62  79 /   0   0  20  10
ELD  49  78  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  57  80  64  82 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  55  81  63  81 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  82  64  83 /   0   0  10  10



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