Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 221119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
619 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Persistent Hudson Bay high pressure will keep clear to partly
cloudy skies over the region through Friday. Mixing through about
850 mb should support highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s, with
slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan as east to northeast
winds increase on Friday. Lows tonight are tough, as there are
large discrepencies between the cooler MET and milder MAV. Used
a blend of the better performing guidance sets, which resulted
in lows in the upper single digits and teens north, and upper
teens to lower 20s south.

Models are also showing large differences in dew points the next
few days. Sunshine and daytime mixing allowed dew points to drop
into the single digits in some areas yesterday, so anticipate
similar trends over the next couple days, especially in the sandy
soil areas.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A large surface high pressure system moving across Canada and an
upstream mid level ridge should keep the area mainly dry with
near or slightly colder than normal temperatures through the

A short wave trough and surface low passing south of Wisconsin
will bring a slight chance for light snow to part of central
Wisconsin late Friday night, but no more than a trace should
fall there.

Once the mid level ridge shifts to our east upper level flow
becomes southwest, bringing warmer temperatures and better chances
for precipitation to the forecast area.

There is a chance for rain, mainly in central and north central
Wisconsin Monday afternoon as an inverted surface trough
approaches the state. There are timing differences among the
models so confidence in the onset time of precipitation is medium
at best. Chances for precipitation increase and spread across the
rest of the area Monday night. Rain is expected to mix with snow
and then change to all snow overnight as boundary layer
temperatures cool. Snow should change back to rain on Tuesday as
the boundary layer warms. Some rain may change to a mix or snow
before ending Tuesday evening. The model blend has a chance for
rain in central and northern Wisconsin on Wednesday afternoon, but
am not sure where it`s getting this since the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and
Canadian show no QPF for that period at all.

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Dry high pressure will bring VFR flight conditions through the TAF
period. Cloud cover gradually approaching from western WI is
expected to erode during the day, but scattered stratocumulus may
make its way into north central and central WI this afternoon.
Light north to northeast winds are anticipated through the period.




SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.