Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 152306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
606 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Main concern in the period is the low pressure system currently
developing across eastern Colorado, which will eject eastward
tonight through tomorrow and quickly become stacked. Between now
and then, high pressure will continue to keep conditions quiet,
with just high clouds moving through this afternoon through

By tomorrow, a wintry mix should be lifting northeast out of
Nebraska with PoPs increasing to likely by tomorrow evening across
southwestern MN. There still looks to be some icing potential, but
the NAM is the most bullish on this. Confidence remains low in
getting significant impacts from icing, so still no winter weather
headline planned at this time. Snow accumulation along I-90
still looks to be around 1-2". The low pressure system to our
south will be filling quickly as it continues east through the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the precip bands across far southern
MN will diminish rather quickly prior to 12Z Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu
Mar 15 2018

The main concern in the long term is the activity for early/middle
of next week. Saturday and Sunday will be rather uneventful, with
temperatures not too far from normal. Another cyclone looks to
develop along the lee of the Rockies by Sunday night, and still
looks to eject due eastward through Oklahoma and the Ohio River

However, we do have a chance for precipitation middle of next week
as an inverted trough with the surface low extends well to the
north. In addition, an upper level shortwave trough will drop in
form our northwest Tuesday. Any precip with this wave will likely
be snow as cold air will be in place due to cold air advection on
the backside of the aforementioned cyclone.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Very dry east winds through the period will keep clouds VFR, with
any precip remaining well southwest of even RWF and MKT. Forecast
soundings show a touch more wind being present Friday than what we
have seen today. Considering wind speeds today overachieved, went
above guidance for winds again tomorrow, closer to what mixing
winds from the GFS show.

KMSP...We will have a cross-wind for the 12s/30s through much of
the evening push tonight, but will be slowly trending toward more
of a head wind for the 12s with time.

SAT...VFR. Wind E 5 kts becoming S.
SUN...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind vrb 5 kts or less.
MON...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind ENE 5-10 kts.




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