069
FXUS63 KMPX 101929
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
229 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clusters of showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday.
  Predictability for any of these rounds is low, but heavy rain
  and gusty winds are possible with said clusters.

- Warm and mostly dry Saturday-Monday, with the next system to
  bring organized showers and storms arriving Tuesday-
  Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

This morning`s mesoscale convective vortex has spun its way into
southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, bringing
associated showers with it. Current satellite verifies this with
a large, picturesque, plume of high level cirrus on the
outskirts of the spinning low. Satellite also shows clearing in
western Minnesota behind the departing surface low, where
temperatures have rebounded into the low 80s. Stronger storms
are possible this afternoon, but should be mostly isolated to
south of the MN border in Iowa where a prominent CU field
developed through strong diurnal heating. Given the scattering
clouds (increase in heating), relatively high dewpoints
(60/70s), and increasing mid-level lapse rates (6-8 deg C/km),
any weak disturbance could trigger a thunderstorm. In this
unstable and minorly capped environment, outflows from any storm
that does develop could create another storm. They would be
disorganized in nature given the lack of winds. Overall, the
rain threat is greater than any storm threat across southern
Minnesota in association with the departing low.

Friday morning could look similar to today, with scattered
showers and storms possible in the early hours. A cold front
will sweep through later in the day, with more clusters of
storms possible. Again, these will be hard to pinpoint to any
specific location given the isolated nature of potential
development. Heavy rainfall is something we will be keeping our
eyes on over the next few days as PWATs remain elevated.

Saturday brings high pressure and mild temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s, with any precip moving out of western Wisconsin by
late morning. Sunday will be similar in that it will be mostly
uneventful, but temperatures will be back in the 80s with
afternoon dewpoints in the low 60s. Monday will again be
uneventful weather wise, but dewpoints will bring back the
mugginess with high temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the
lows 70s. The next larger scale system arrives Tuesday into
Wednesday with showers and storms likely in the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Lingering light rain showers stretching from south-central MN to
southeastern MN/western WI will continue to slowly move east and
decay through this afternoon. Though, isolated thunderstorms may
develop near EAU this afternoon as heating uncaps the
environment ahead of a weak low circulation. Have kept the
PROB30 for -TSRA at EAU from 20-23Z today. Otherwise, have kept
prevailing conditions mostly VFR through Friday morning. Though,
EAU may be an issue again during the morning hours as increased
low-level moisture causes cigs to drop to at least MVFR. There
is a chance of another area of rain Friday morning also (similar
to this morning) but thinking rain chances should be confined
to southern MN. Thus, have included PROB30s for
-SHRA at RWF, MKT, and MSP. South-southeasterly winds will
 lessen and turn more easterly tonight. Winds begin to turn more
 westerly across western MN towards the end of the TAF period
 as the cold front nears.

KMSP...Some light showers will linger near MSP this afternoon
but no impacts are expected. Thinking Friday morning could be
similar to this morning, so have added a PROB30 for -SHRA. Added
another PROB30 later Friday afternoon for thunderstorm chances
with the arrival of the cold front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc AM MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...CTG