


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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604 FXUS63 KMPX 120358 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1058 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening - the strongest could contain hail & gusty winds. - Next chance for widespread rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday. - Cooler temperatures late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 We are continuing to monitor thunderstorms that have initiated out ahead a cold front this afternoon. So far best coverage of storms is across portions of central MN and then again farther to our southeast down into Iowa where a stationary boundary exists. Additional convective initiation is anticipated to occur south and west of the central MN activity as the frontal boundary pushes eastward over the next several hours. The Storm Prediction Center has mainted a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the potential for severe thunderstorms across NE MN down into SW MN through this evening. The current convective environment does show suitable amounts of instability and steeper low-level lapse rates. However deep-layer shear is sub-par but a few funnel cloud or two cannot be ruled out. Hi-Res CAMs continue to struggle on convection coverage through the course of this evening. Thus tonight`s coverage for any storms should be scattered and brief. For any storm that does manage to become organized could produce brief periods of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Just behind this cold front, visibility observations across the eastern Dakotas and western MN have come down quickly due to wildfire smoke. The worst smoke impacts look to occur during Saturday afternoon over central MN and southern MN and western WI. The most concentrated smoke looks to be pinned to northern MN and northern WI however the MN Pollution Control Agency has issued a state wide air quality alert through Monday morning. Aside from wildfire smoke, conditions will feel comfortable and less humid aside from elevated smoky skies. Highs will range in the 70s with dew points near 60. Summer conditions quickly return Sunday though as temperatures return to the mid to 80s with slowly increasing dew points. Warmer and humid conditions will continue to return as the northern CONUS enters zonal flow early next week. Temperatures will range in the mid 80s to near 90 for a few areas by Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Our next shot at convective development looks to occur along a boundary in the Dakotas by Tuesday afternoon. As the evening progresses into the overnight hours, this feature could develop into an MCS before sunrise Wednesday. Guidance is still working on tightening up timing but something at least to monitor over the weekend. Much cooler temperatures in the forecast arrive mid to late week. Especially for July standards, forecasted highs look to range 10 to 15 degrees below normal. So perhaps, the AC can get bit of R&R before summer heat returns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Very little chance of additional precipitation impacting any given TAF site so have kept all sites dry. Main issue becomes the development of near-surface smoke overnight through Saturday evening. Have maintained MVFR-range visibility at all sites from the early morning hours onward as smoke is expected to settle across the Upper Midwest through the weekend. Only other concern is the potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings at EAU where winds drop off the most while low level moisture becomes caught under the nightly inversion. KMSP...Smoke is expected to show up in observations close to sunrise then remain in place through the day tomorrow. Better low-level mixing may allow for VFR visibility at times, but prevailing visibility is likely to be in the MVFR range. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC