Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 251658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1158 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...for 18Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Early morning IR imagery with surface obs and Rap analysis showed
clear skies and light winds across the region. And area of high
pressure was located from South Dakota through northern Minnesota.

Today the high pressure will slowly sag to the southeast so should
see northerly winds go calm and eventually take on a light
southerly direction. Expect plenty of sun today. Tonight a PV
anomaly will drive a cold front through the region. This system is
weakening, but should see a few rain showers develop along it and
move in from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The weakening frontal boundary will bring clouds and a chance for
some light rain showers on Thursday, but most locations should
stay dry. If they do see precipitation, amounts should be less
than a tenth of an inch. High pressure will build in for Friday
and Saturday.

Meanwhile a large upper level ridge will build upstream while a
low develops over the west coast. This low attempts to undercut
the ridge and bring southwest flow across the Upper Midwest. This
will bring warmer temperatures and increase the boundary layer
moisture. The mid level lapse rates are quite impressive, on the
order of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, and together with the jet aloft will
give us a CAPE/Shear profile capable of thunderstorms and perhaps
some severe weather. It is too early to for timing, and at this
point the moisture seems limited for widespread severe weather.
None the less, a more active weather pattern continues to look
more likely for next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR trends through period. Some lowering cigs with incoming cold
front later tonight into Thursday. Should be any lower than
35-4500ft though. Rain chance is small but did include some VCSH
over northern MN portion of the area. Expect surface winds to
become s-sw into tonight and gusty nw with fropa.

KMSP...Problematic light winds early should become sw-s into
tonight and fropa expected by 16z or so. Will continue VFR trend
and mention VCSH for possible VIRGA sprinkles around before noon
or so. Winds will become nw and gusty into the afternoon.

Thursday night...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt becoming west 5
kt or less.
Friday...VFR. West wind 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest
10 to 15 kt.
Friday night...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.
Sunday...VFR. Southeast wind 10 to 20 kt.




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