Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 181736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
136 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Quiet weather will continue through tonight although the passage of
a backdoor cold front from Ontario this morning will bring an
increase in clouds this afternoon into tonight.

Today, a backdoor cold front will push into the area from Ontario
with high pressure building southward from northern Ontario as a
shortwave slides southeast from James Bay. Model soundings indicate
very shallow and limited moisture available with the front. Any
weak/sheared clipper shortwaves in the confluent nw flow may bring
an increase in mid clouds but not expecting any pcpn given how
shallow the low-level moisture is (to around 1000 ft). Temperatures
will be cooler across the north today with highs generally in the
lower 30s nw and north central with a chilly ne flow off Lake
Superior. Cooling won`t reach the WI border until late in the day so
highs will still reach into the mid to upper 40s there.

Tonight, expect min temps dropping generally into the teens under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Models suggest that a split flow pattern will prevail from the
weekend through early this week. High pressure from nrn Ontario into
the northern Great Lakes will maintain dry weather through next week
as any significant pcpn remains well to the west or south. High
temps will also remain near or below normal dominated by cool
northeasterly low level flow.

Monday into Wednesday, anticyclonic northeast low level flow of
shallow cold air with 3k ft inversion top temps to near -14C will
provide only marginal instability for any LES, especially with
very dry air upstream. Temps, however will drop below normal with
highs from the upper 20s north to lower 30s south. Light snow
associated with an inverted sfc trough and mid level shrtwvs into
the Dakotas will remain to the west of the cwa through Wed.
However, some light snow showers may be possible over the far west
half by Wed into wed night as weak qvector conv with the mid
level trough axis moves into the area.

Thu-Fri, expect gradual warming as the plains mid level ridge builds
slowly eastward and sfc high pressure builds over the region.
However, temps will only climb into the mid and upper 30s, near
seasonal averages.

Sat, the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF have trended slightly farther to the
north with pcpn associated with a stronger shortwave moving into the
upper MS valley. However, the northern portion of the pcpn area will
likely be impeded by continued dry ene low level flow from the
Hudson Bay high.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

A cold front moving in from the NE today, combined with a mid level
short wave moving in from the W should lead to reduced CIGs, with
MVFR conditions developing at KIWD and KSAW this evening and
overnight, but no precipitation is expected. The exact height of
those CIGs is uncertain. Should remain in the 2000-3000 ft range,
but mentioned SCT to 1500 ft to hint towards the potential that
cielings could be a little bit lower for a brief period, mainly
between 00Z and 06Z.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around
25 knots over western Lake Superior this afternoon and tonight.
Otherwise no significant winds are expected through the forecast
period, with winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


AVIATION...- None -
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