Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171731
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
131 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 525 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2018

Primary concern remains with fire weather as dry conditions continue.

A few showers may brush far western Upper MI early this morning, but
most significant precip should stay on the other side of the WI
border. Behind the cold front that moved through yesterday, today
will be cooler, especially near central and eastern Lake Superior
due to onshore winds. Highs will range from the 40s along Lake
Superior to around 70 along the WI border. Minimum RH values this
afternoon will be 20-30% away from the shorelines. Thankfully, winds
will be light for the most part at 10 mph or less (although the
Keweenaw could see gustier conditions but with higher RH due to lake
moisture).

Light winds continue tonight with minimum temps from the mid 30s
through mid 40s. RH recovery will be poor at only 50-65%, though.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2018

Nam shows 500 mb closed low over the mid Mississippi River valley
with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. This low moves
north and becomes a shortwave over the lower Great Lakes 00z Sun
with more troughing moving through the area on Sun. Still looks like
we will be between systems and widespread rainfall for Sat and Sat
night does not look likely. Having low chance and slight chance pops
in the forecast still looks good. Overall, did not make too many
changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Sun. This upper trough broadens with time and
remains over the area into Thu. Sfc high pressure remains over the
area for most of the period. There is also a weak backdoor cold
front that hangs around the area this forecast period as well that
slowly moves through the area. Looks like there could be some slight
chance pops on Mon and again Tue night into Wed. Temperatures look
to be above normal for this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 129 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Winds will gradually veer southeasterly this afternoon
and evening. There is a slight chance of wind shear early Friday
morning at KIWD and KCMX but confidence is too low at this point
to include in the TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 525 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2018

NE winds of 20-30 knots across the west will persist through today.
Winds will then veer south and increase to 20-25 kts across the
eastern half of Lake Superior Friday into Friday night. Winds are
then expected to remain below 20 kts for much of next week as high
pressure settles across the area.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Borchardt
MARINE...Titus



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