Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 170005
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
805 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

...Moderate snow accumulation to continue tonight for portions of
west and north central Upper Michigan...

Upper level low pressure near the Mackinac Straits area as noted on
the latest water vapor imagery is expected to linger through much of
tonight. Deep moist cyclonic flow and synoptic scale forcing
associated with this feature is expected to support north flow
moderate lake enhanced snow showers into tonight for portions of
west and north central Upper Mi as 850 mb temps across the area are
expected to be from -12c to -14c. North-northwest facing higher
terrain will also enhance snowfall amounts as depicted on higher-
resolution mesoscale models.  Blended QFP amounts from the mesoscale
models of .3 to .5 inch and snow ratios expected around 13 or 14 to
1 should support a general 3-5 inches of snow over the higher
terrain of the Keweenaw Peninsula and from Baraga-Marquette into
Alger counties with localized amounts approaching 7 inches from late
this afternoon into tonight. High-end advisory headline still looks
on target through late tonight for Houghton-Keweenaw and Marquette-
Baraga and Alger counties. Gogebic and Ontonagon counties could also
get into some briefly moderate lake enhanced snow late evening/early
overnight but expect snow amounts to stay just blo advisory
there. Will extend advisory for Luce and Schoolcraft counties into
this evening due to lingering deep moisture/forcing over area
from proximity to upper low.

Deeper moisture and enhancement from the system is expected to cut
out late tonight as noted on NAM model soundings as system slowly
pushes east, so expect snow to diminish at that time.

Lingering precip near Lake Superior will diminish on Tue, with only
another 1-2" at most expected in the N wind snow belts during the
day. Still enough of a tight pres gradient to continue breezy
conditions across much of the area with patchy blowing snow along
Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

The extended period will be relatively quiet with a clipper
system expected on Wednesday and warmer spring-like temperatures
through the end of the week.

The biggest concern in the extended is the aforementioned clipper
system due to swing through the lower Great Lakes Wednesday and into
Thursday. At this point, the main brunt of the frontogenetical-
driven precipitation is expected to stay south of the area but the
southern tier of counties in Upper Michigan may get brushed with
a few hundredths to a tenth of QPF. It is worth noting that the
NAM shows the furthest-north track of precipitation across north
central Wisconsin. Given the success of the NAM with the recent
couple of weather makers across the area, the system still bears
watching. Regardless, a rain/snow (more like heavy
sprinkle/flurry) mix still looks good with little to no impacts
expected.

Clouds will finally break on Thursday and Friday giving way to more
seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. While our dew
points will stay low (mid to upper 20s), the warm April sun should
really work on our recently-augmented snowpack.

The upcoming weekend looks quite splendid with partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The
warming trend will continue into Monday and Tuesday of next week
before weak cold front sweeps through the Great Lakes mid-week. In
fact, it seems quite plausible that some areas may flirt with 60 F
Monday or Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 803 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Low pres system spinning over the Great Lakes region will maintain
periods of snow with conditions varying between IFR and low MVFR
though tonight at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Not out of the question that a few
periods of LIFR could occur. Expect improvement to high end MVFR by
late Tue morning as system and deeper moisture slowly push east.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 319 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north
and west and low pressure just e of the Upper Great Lakes will
continue strong northerly winds of 20-30 knots tonight into Tue
morning across Lake Superior along with some patchy freezing spray.
Not out of the question that there could be a few gale force gusts
to 35 knots over north central parts of the lake. Winds for the rest
of the week will be under 25kt.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ001-
     003>006.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ007-
     014-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Borchardt
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Voss



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