Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 201953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
353 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

Quiet weather will continue in the short term. With sfc high pres
over northern Ontario, low-level e to ne winds are prevailing across
Upper MI. Temps at the base of the inversion were at -13 to -14C
earlier today, just cold enough to support some very light
shsn/flurries from the Keweenaw to nw Marquette county. A few
flurries are still lingering into the Keweenaw. However, under full
mid Mar sun, deepening well-mixed boundary layer upstream of Lake
Superior in northern Ontario is leading to erosion of the lake cloud
streamers over the eastern lake. This process will continue over the
next several hrs, bringing an end to the flurries. Will probably see
the stratocu clear out as well.

Fcst soundings show temps at the inversion base running 1-2C higher
tonight than early this morning. This will be sufficient to prevent
any -shsn/flurries from developing off the lake tonight. May not see
much in the way of stratocu either given the dryness of the upstream
air mass. A few shortwaves noted from IA into s central Canada are
currently generating some -sn off to the w. The northernmost
shortwave will approach the area Wed aftn. Given the dry low-level
air feeding into the area from the high pres to the n, expect this
-sn to dissipate before reaching the fcst area. While the -sn will
dissipate, looks like there will be considerable CI and high based
AS spread over the area with time. Expect mins in the single digits
and teens tonight. High clouds will begin to thin out from the w Wed
aftn. This should help temps rise well into the 30s in the interior.
Around 30F will be more common closer to Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

There will be troughing off the Pacific NW coast 00z Thu with a
ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the ern U.S. and a
shortwave over the upper Great Lakes. The shortwave slowly moves to
New England by 00z Sat while the ridge moves into the plains. Should
be pretty quiet for this forecast period and did not make too many

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb shortwave over the
central plains 12z Sat with a broad 500 mb ridge over the upper
Great Lakes. This ridge moves to the lower Great Lakes 12z Sun and
to the eastern U.S. 12z Mon. A broad trough moves into the Rockies
12z Mon. Troughing moves into the northern plains 12z Tue. Pretty
quiet this forecast period with systems staying away from the area.
Temperatures will be near normal.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 129 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

Under a dry low-level air mass, VFR conditions will prevail at
KIWD/KSAW thru this fcst period. On easterly winds, lake effect
clouds are currently affecting KCMX, resulting in MVFR cigs and some
flurries. These MVFR cigs should clear out toward evening as drier
air advects across the lake. VFR conditions should then prevail
tonight thru Wed morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 353 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

High pressure will generally remain over northern Ontario thru the
remainder of this week. Winds will mostly be under 25kt thru the
period. Ligthest winds should be Wed night thru Thu night, mostly
under 15kt.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.