Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 180718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
318 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the ern U.S. with
a deep trough and closed 500 mb low over the western U.S. this
morning. The upper Great Lakes is on the top of the ridge in the
ring of fire convection scenario. The ridge gets flattened this
morning as a shortwave across central Canada heads east and this
shortwave pushes a cold front through the area. This shortwave will
then dig a trough into New England tonight. Quieter weather will
continue this forecast period as the front moves away to the south
and continues to take the pcpn with it. By this afternoon, the pcpn
will be south of the area and dry weather will continue into
tonight. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

Much needed break in weather this week. Dry high pressure with
source region out of Canada will be in control as active, moisture
laden front that will continue to produce episodes of heavy rain
settles well to the south of Upper Michigan, from central Plains to
Ohio Valley. With the high over our area, expect light winds mainly
driven by afternoon lake breezes. Daytime temps inland will reach
the upper 70s to lower 80s most days with potential for mid 80s
returning to the region next weekend. Even with the high overhead,
airmass certainly not dry enough to bring chilly min temps into the
forecast. Lows most nights will be in the 40s or 50s. These forecast
daytime and nighttime temps are not all that different that
climatology as we approach later June.

Overall it looks like weather will change to pattern that will help
out those repairing and restoring flood damage. Thankfully areas in
Upper Michigan that have been impacted by significant, and in the
case of the Keweenaw Peninsula, historic, flooding, will get a much
needed reprieve through the long term with little if any rainfall
expected. Low humidity will also help out the comfort level for
those working outside for extended periods of time.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 133 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

As a cold front passes overnight, cigs and/or vis at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
will likely fall to LIFR for a time as fog/stratus is advected off
Lake Superior and impacts the terminals. A few shra also remain
possible. Drier air will then arrive during the day, resulting in
improvement to VFR at all terminals during the morning hrs.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 309 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

Winds will stay at or below 20 knots through the forecast period.
Fog on the waterways will dissipate today as drier air works into
the area, but will take into the afternoon before the fog is totally

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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