Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 182310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018


Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

At 2 PM CDT, fair skies with light winds are noted over the region with
temperatures rebounding into the lower 50s east to the mid to upper
40s west. A storm system will pass to our south the next couple days
keeping skies mostly fair to fair with northeasterly winds temperatures
slightly below to below normal into Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair to good or average
to above average. The main issue is low temperatures tonight with
light winds and fair skies supporting favored low lying locations
that may result in lows up to 3 degrees colder then forecast.

Tonight...fair skies and light winds should allow for lows mostly in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Most locations should see a decent mantle
of frost by sunrise. This is mainly near normals for late March.

Monday...fair skies with some passing cirrus clouds on tap with northeast
winds of 5 to 15 in the morning and some gusts to around 20 mph in
the afternoon. Highs should respond into the upper 40s northeast
to the lower 50s elsewhere or near normal for late March.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Forecast focus on dry conditions through the middle of next week
then a storm system arriving late in the week and into next weekend.

Monday night through Thursday: Northwest flow aloft with high
pressure centered near James Bay and ridging into the western Great
Lakes. This will keep the dvn cwa in below normal temperatures and
dry conditions. Maximum temperatures will be mainly in the 40s to
lower 50s and lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday night through next weekend: Models similar in bringing a
strong storm system into the area, tracking the surface low across
northern MO. However, the GFS is about 12 hours faster bringing warm
air advection/isentropic upglide precipitation already into the cwa
Thursday night.  The ECMWF holds off the precipitation until later
on Friday. This looks to be mainly a rain event, possibly moderate
to locally heavy as there is a decent moisture transport from the
western Gulf. A few thunderstorms are also possible especially
Friday night into Saturday when the stronger forcing/dynamics
arrive.  Will need to keep an eye on our northern cwa where the
potential exists for snow especially on the front and back ends of
the system. Still a bit too early for specific details.

Next Sunday: The GFS has another storm system arriving which appears
to be a rain event. However, the ECMWF is dry and much slower and
keeping this system well to our west.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

High pressure will provide light winds overnight into Monday
morning with only high level cloud cover. Some MVFR fog may impact
the CID and BRL terminals, where there is a low potential for at
brief IFR conditions if high level cloud cover thins out. Monday,
low pressure passing to the south will provide easterly winds
which will increase to 10 to 20 kts by midday with higher gusts
possible. Otherwise, Monday is expected to be VFR, once any early
morning fog dissipates.




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