Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231114
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 230 AM CDT MON APR 23 2018

The upper low that brought rain showers to our area over the
weekend continues to spin across the lower Mississippi Valley this
morning, with our region positioned in northeast upper flow
aloft. Regional radars showing some light shwr activity across
central Missouri this morning, but dry low-level air is likely
preventing much of this from reaching the ground. Despite the
northeast flow, expect a fairly nice day across the region as
upstream upper ridging approaches from the northwest. The
combination of building heights aloft along with negligible cold
air advection in northeast flow and clearing skies should allow
temps to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

Dry weather to continue overnight with lows falling into middle
to upper 40s. Forecast models continue to slow Tueday`s cold front
with all now in agreeing that the boundary won`t pass until
Tuesday night/early Wednesday. As a result, shwr activity
associated with this front should hold off for much of the day,
with daytime highs again warming into the lower 70s Tuesday
afternoon. Following the front, expect a cooler day on Wednesday
with highs only warming into the lower 60s as mid-level cold
pocket moves directly over the lower Missouri Vly. Lingering
instability-type shwrs will be possible through the day, however
it certainly doesn`t look to be a washout by any stretch of the
imagination. Next cold front to then move through the region late
Thursday afternoon as the next trough axis begins passing
overhead. As has been the case this spring so far, little to no
return flow from the Gulf will limit instability generation
ahead of the boundary, which should keep convective development in
check. This is all good news as much of the sensible weather
impacts will be done by the weekend as high pressure builds into
the area on Friday. If current forecast trends continue, many
will say the wait was well worth it as temperatures rebound into
the mid 70s by Sunday. Its finally time we get rewarded by Mother
Nature after what our region has dealt with with over the past
several weekends.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT MON APR 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the fcst period with mid-level
status gradually breaking up throughout the day. Winds will remain
from the northeast between 8-12 kts before weakening this
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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