Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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714 FXUS63 KEAX 112323 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 623 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers and thunderstorms become possible Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is not expected however minor flooding will be possible. -Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Today, weak upper level ridging is building into the area in response to a upper level trough moving from the Great Basin to the Four corners region. This combined with surface high pressure has made for a very pleasant and slight above normal day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tonight into Sunday the upper level trough, in the form a closed low with move into the western Plains. Scattered warm air advection showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system tomorrow afternoon. Despite the increased cloud cover and showers, low amplitude upper level ridging and WAA will keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday night into Monday, this closed low system will progress slowly across Kansas increasing shower and thunderstorms probabilities and coverage. This will make for a cooler Monday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday night the closed upper low will move directly over the forecast area continuing shower and isolated thunderstorm chances. All told widespread 1 to 2 inches of precipitation is expected with this system which may lead to minor given the antecedent wet conditions. A few residual light showers will be possible early Tuesday as the upper level system shifts eastward into the lower Ohio River Valley but should be mostly dry by afternoon is surface high pressure builds into the area. Afternoon sun should help highs return to near normal in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday night into early Wednesday look to remain dry as a surface ridge remains in control however, late Wednesday into Wednesday into Wednesday night a upper level trough will dig from the Rockies into the northern and central Plains. Lead shortwaves ahead of this trough will allow for rounds of thunderstorms to develop Wednesday night into Thursday. This trough will weaken as it moves through the Plains Thursday into Thursday night forcing a weak cold front into the area. This cold front will then stall across the area Thursday night into Friday and will be the focus for continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms To finish out the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Increase in mid-level clouds anticipated tonight into Sunday. Scattered showers become increasingly probable by the end of the TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB/73 AVIATION...Blair