Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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328 FXUS65 KFGZ 120326 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 826 PM MST Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Afternoon showers have dwindled this evening with clearing skies expected overnight. Warmer temperatures arrive Sunday with slight chances for a few showers and storms each afternoon through Thursday. Anticipate typical afternoon breezes through the forecast period. && .UPDATE...Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms brought light to moderate rain to several areas across northern Arizona. A good portion of the region along and north of I-40 received trace amounts to a few hundredths of an inch of rain. However, a few localized areas north of Flagstaff, near Keams Canyon, and near Holbrook did get between 0.5-1.0" of precipitation based on radar estimations. Conditions have quieted this evening with clearing skies expected overnight. Precipitation chances remain very low for tomorrow afternoon with the exception being slight chances along higher terrain due to afternoon instability taking advantage of residual moisture. No significant adjustments were made to the forecast tonight... Happy Mother`s Day, mom! && .PREV DISCUSSION /429 PM MST/...A low pressure system centered over the Arizona/Utah border during the afternoon was continuing to move eastward. For the remainder of today, instability will remain in place from the Mogollon Rim northward with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing into the evening hours. The subcloud layer will remain fairly dry so evaporational cooling in stronger showers and storms has the potential to induce some local wind gust in the 30 to 40 mph range. Activity is expected to come to an end by midnight. On Sunday...The current low heads east of Arizona. However, moisture will linger over the area. The result will be, with daytime heating, the development of cloud buildups over the mountain areas with a few afternoon sprinkles or light showers. The threat for any thunderstorms appears minimal but can never be completely ruled out. Away from the mountains look for mostly to partly sunny skies. Warmer daytime temperatures are forecast as the cooler air mass associated with the low moves out of the area. Behind the low winds will generally be from the northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon gusts approaching 25 mph. Monday and Tuesday...Moisture lingers under high pressure. Not much in the way of forcing except for daytime heating with moisture values remaining marginal. The result, midday to afternoon cloud buildups over the mountains each day with a slight chance of showers. As mentioned above a stray thunderstorm is always possible with the stronger spring sun. Daytime temperatures will hover around seasonal averages but likely be the warmest on Monday. Afternoon winds becoming west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph gusting to near 25 mph with the passing high. Wednesday and Thursday...Another weak low will move over Arizona. Look for an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms similar to what is being observed today (Saturday). Friday into next weekend...Warmer weather and dry conditions are forecast as another high pressure system moves across the state. && .AVIATION...Sunday 12/00Z through Monday 13/00Z...Periods of MVFR visibilities and mountain obscurations are forecast through 02Z due to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA. After 02Z, expect clearing skies and light winds. By 18Z Sunday, look for northwest winds 10-20 kts and a 10-20% chance for light rain showers over high terrain. OUTLOOK...Monday 13/00Z through Wednesday 15/00Z...Chances for isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon through Wednesday, mainly confined to the high terrain. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible in any storms, with much of the region remaining in VFR. Daytime winds will blow from the west-southwest with gusts 15-25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Above average temperatures return on Sunday and continue to Monday. Isolated showers and a few high-based thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, mainly confined to the Mogollon Rim, Kaibab Plateau, White Mountains, and the Chuska Mountains. Outside of any erratic outflow gusts from storms, expect northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph on Sunday, followed by west-southwest winds on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm chances persist each afternoon through Thursday with the greatest coverage likely on Wednesday. Precipitation totals of less than 0.10" are expected during this time. The 5 degree above average temperatures continue each day with minimum humidity of 15 to 20%. Afternoon winds will be out of the west each day with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Mazon/McCollum AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff