438
FXUS64 KEPZ 070557
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1157 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Warm and breezy to windy conditions continue through Wednesday.
Winds reduce some for Thursday. Eastern areas will see a slight
chance for a thunderstorm starting Saturday into the weekend.
Elsewhere we will continue to see warm afternoons with some
breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Long wave trough continues to cover the western CONUS with a ridge
east. UL jet is moving across the Desert SW, beginning to eject
into the Plains. That means wind for us and a severe weather
outbreak for them. If you know anyone who lives in the Central and
Southern Plains, let them know they need to monitor the weather
this afternoon and evening for the potential of a high-impact
severe weather outbreak. For us back home, high fire danger and
some patchy blowing dust are the impacts along with gusts around
40 MPH with higher in the mountain. This trough remains entrenched
through the period, so we rinse and repeat for Tuesday and
Wednesday. It will be breezy each afternoon with gusts topping out
around 40 MPH and some blowing dust, basically a repeat of today.

On Thursday, we remain at the base of the trough, but high
pressure will move down the Plains inhibiting lee troughing,
forcing the surface trough axis across Central and Western NM.
This will allow winds to decrease for Thursday as well as moisture
to pool along the eastern border of our CWA. Models continue to
let some of this moisture push west on Friday before mixing east
in the afternoon with a bit more robust intrusion on Saturday.
The Euro is more aggressive with the intrusion than the GFS.
Aloft, a s/w, the remnant of the same low giving us our wind today
and the severe weather to our east, will move from UT on Friday,
across the Four Corners, and into NM or CO by the weekend. If the
moisture can remain in place, the added dynamics would help foster
a few thunderstorms. If the system passes enough to the west,
some attendant moisture with the system itself could also provide
some storm chances on Sunday. For now, chances are pretty low and
focused across the Sacramento Mountains. Models have been pretty
bullish with these moisture intrusions, only for the solution to
never materialize.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the day tomorrow. Expect
generally SKC with some FEW250 and winds continuing to decrease
tonight. Tomorrow afternoon will be another breezy day, similar to
what we saw today. Dust could become an issue again tomorrow, but
may just be hazy skies with less of a chance of the dust being
concentrated and reducing visibilities.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Very dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue to foster near
critical to critical fire concerns through Wednesday. Tomorrow and
Wednesday both look to see 20-foot winds top out around 18 to 23
MPH with min RH values dropping into the single-digits. Winds will
be a bit weaker across the International Border. A Red Flag
Warning remains in place for Tuesday with a Fire Weather Watch for
Wednesday. An eventual upgrade to a warning is anticipated within
the next 24 hours.

We see a reduction in wind for Thursday, bringing us out of
critical concerns although min RH values will remain quite low. On
Friday, moisture will try and push in from the east before
retreating back to the east in the afternoon. Depending on how
far west it moves, it will help with morning recoveries as well as
afternoon values. East of the boundary, there will also be a
slight chance for a thunderstorm, especially for the Sacramento
Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  58  89  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            53  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               49  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               48  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               36  60  41  60 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    49  85  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              42  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   45  85  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                44  83  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       54  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                49  87  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             52  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               51  79  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   54  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             49  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           55  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            45  83  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    45  86  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 51  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                48  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  41  74  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                40  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 39  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  40  76  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  81  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                43  84  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             38  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   39  78  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    42  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               43  76  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  42  78  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   45  85  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  85  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           47  84  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira