928
FXUS64 KEPZ 210447
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1047 PM MDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...


 -  We will see the return of above average high temperatures this
    week, with very dry conditions persisting.

 -  By the end of the week, we will have high temperatures in the
    mid to upper 90`s in the lowlands, with El Paso possibly
    seeing its first triple digit day.

 -  Watching for possible moisture to move in from the Texas Gulf
    for early next week. We are seeing some potential for our next
    precipitation next Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Tue May 20 2025

Yesterday`s upper level trough has moved off to the east and
taken with it the winds and the dust. In its place today is a dry
and "cool" northwest flow that has helped keep our high
temperatures a few degrees below average. On Wednesday a zonal
flow (west to east) will help jump our high temperatures back
above average. For Thursday and Friday a weak upper level ridge
will move our high temperature even higher. Lowlands temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 90`s and there is a good chance
(80-90%) that El Paso will see its first triple digit high
temperature, one (or both) of those days. For the weekend, we
will have a dry and warm southwest flow aloft which will keep high
temperatures well above average, but maybe down a degree or two
from the end of the week. For the start of next week, we will see
moisture begin to slip back into the region, mainly east of the
Rio Grande, and with the approach of a pacific upper level trough
we may see some rain chances return to the forecast, fingers
crossed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM MDT Tue May 20 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
light at 4-9 knots and VRB through the overnight and into the
morning. Winds will become S/SW during the afternoon at 6-11
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Tue May 20 2025

Winds will stay on the light side of things over the next several
days, but we will stay very dry. Min RH`s Wednesday through the
weekend will range from 3 to 6% in the lowlands and 8 to 10% in
area mountains. Moisture does look to trickle back into region for
the start of next week, mainly east of the Rio Grande. Vent rates
will range from very good to excellent over the next couple of
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  96  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  90  60  93 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces               52  91  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  90  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  68  47  73 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    54  91  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              50  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   52  93  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  91  55  96 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  93  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  93  56  97 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             58  97  62 100 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               58  86  62  91 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   57  96  62 100 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             54  91  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  92  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            49  91  55  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  93  54  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  93  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                52  90  58  95 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  45  82  50  85 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                45  80  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 42  78  47  82 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  42  83  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                51  90  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  90  54  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  86  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   47  88  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    47  91  50  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               47  87  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  87  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   52  93  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  91  55  96 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  92  57  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               56  88  58  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers