Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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278 FXUS64 KEPZ 070531 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1031 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024 A Pacific frontal system entering northwest New Mexico will continue south our forecast area tonight. This will produce some showers later this evening, mainly over the mountains. These showers will quickly turn to snow overnight with snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible by Friday morning across the mountains. Thursday will be a chilly day as some showers continue. The clouds and showers should end by mid day Friday as the upper low moves off to our north. The rest of the weekend into the first half of next will remain dry with much warmer temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024 Pacific storm system continues to drop southward as it gradually pushes clouds and eventually some showers to our forecast area. Upper low currently near the Four Corners will drop south down eastern Arizona Thursday morning and then turning the corner into and across southern New Mexico. Shortwaves rotating around the low will push clouds in this evening. One wave produced a plume of mid/high clouds over the eastern CWA while the next one is developing a wider band of clouds just entering the northwest CWA. This band will contain showers, mostly for the mountains, for the overnight hours. Further cloud development will occur on Thursday with showers within these clouds. Synthetic cloud forecast imagery from the WRF shows this development overnight, but clouds limited mostly to areas north and east of Las Cruces. As cold air comes in overnight, snow levels will fall rapidly. By Thursday morning snow levels will fall to around 5500 ft in the Gila/Black Range, and to 6500 ft in the Sacs. Some moderate snow is possible, and our Winter Watches from yesterday are now Snow Advisories as models have gradually decreased snow accumulations. Thus will keep 3 to 6 inches in our forecast, through Friday morning. Still some concern for mixed precip over the lowlands of Sierra County, though models showing this less likely. Thursday will be quite chilly as cold air funnels in behind the surface front. Temperatures will be well below normal with some breezes. Models take the low into the Texas Panhandle mid-day Friday, ending the clouds and showers. Short wave ridge moves in Saturday to begin a stretch of dry, warmer weather. Temperatures will be back to near normal Sunday and then above normal Monday and Tuesday. Both GFS/ECMWF swing upper trough across New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy both days and cooler Wednesday behind the Pacific cool front that swings through. Pattern recognition would indicate stronger winds especially Tuesday but model winds not real impressive. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected, however, especially at TCS, there will likely be occasional reductions to MVFR overnight. This is thanks to an approaching upper-level system that is bringing widespread clouds with bases 025 to 110. 0530z radar showed a band of showers from west of DMN to TCS with a few lightning strikes noted toward KALM/Alamogordo. Light rain is a guarantee at TCS, but there is at least a slight chance for rain at all TAF sites. Snow may mix in with the rain at TCS. Rain chances end late afternoon into early evening, west to east. Winds will be breezy overnight, generally from the north to northeast with speeds around 10 knots and occasional gusts to 20 knots. These winds will become southerly by tomorrow afternoon with speeds around 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024 Cool and showery tonight through Friday morning, with some moderate snowfall across the mountain zones. Dry and warmer Saturday and beyond with fuels drying out again. No significant winds expected after Thursday. Min RHs: Lowlands 20-35% Thursday and Friday, decreasing to 15-25% Saturday through Monday. Mountains 35-50% Thursday/Friday and 15-30% Saturday through Monday. Vent rates good-very good Thursday and Friday, then poor-fair Saturday through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 45 62 37 60 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 37 63 38 55 / 10 10 20 0 Las Cruces 39 55 33 57 / 30 50 30 10 Alamogordo 39 54 36 52 / 60 80 40 30 Cloudcroft 20 37 18 33 / 60 80 40 40 Truth or Consequences 35 47 34 53 / 60 80 30 30 Silver City 34 43 28 51 / 50 60 20 10 Deming 37 53 30 58 / 20 30 20 10 Lordsburg 35 52 27 56 / 20 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 47 61 40 58 / 20 20 20 10 Dell City 40 62 38 59 / 20 30 30 10 Fort Hancock 40 65 38 62 / 10 20 10 0 Loma Linda 40 55 36 50 / 20 20 20 10 Fabens 42 67 36 60 / 20 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 42 58 33 56 / 20 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 44 56 39 56 / 40 70 30 10 Jornada Range 40 54 33 55 / 50 80 30 20 Hatch 38 56 36 59 / 60 80 30 20 Columbus 40 58 33 58 / 20 20 10 0 Orogrande 41 56 36 53 / 30 80 40 20 Mayhill 24 38 24 44 / 60 70 50 30 Mescalero 25 44 22 41 / 60 80 40 40 Timberon 25 44 22 41 / 50 70 40 20 Winston 24 40 22 43 / 50 80 40 20 Hillsboro 31 50 30 54 / 50 80 30 20 Spaceport 37 52 33 54 / 60 80 40 30 Lake Roberts 32 43 25 50 / 50 70 30 20 Hurley 35 45 26 53 / 40 60 20 10 Cliff 34 48 28 57 / 40 50 20 10 Mule Creek 35 46 28 53 / 30 40 20 10 Faywood 35 49 29 53 / 40 70 20 10 Animas 33 54 28 57 / 20 20 0 0 Hachita 35 55 27 56 / 20 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 35 57 29 59 / 20 10 0 0 Cloverdale 32 48 29 53 / 20 20 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Thursday for NMZ426. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for NMZ414>416. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown