Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270830
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/
/Overnight through Wednesday Night/

Broad anticyclonic flow remains in place across much of the
Central U.S. in the upper levels, but a weak trough between
600-400 mb is tracking westward across the western Gulf and along
the northern Gulf Coast. This feature has been responsible for
widespread convection well east of our area. Cloud cover from
these storms has now spread into North Texas thanks to the
easterly flow and we`ll likely remain mostly cloudy through the
overnight hours. This may help keep lows in the lower 80s in urban
areas.

On Tuesday, as the weak upper trough continues westward, a slug of
2"+ PWs will also spread west into the I-35 corridor. The
atmosphere should be largely uncapped by midday with mixed layer
parcels able to freely convect around 5000 ft. Weak large scale
ascent and perhaps a remnant outflow boundary approaching from the
east should be sufficient for widely scattered thunderstorms to
develop during peak heating. High resolution guidance varies on
coverage but weak wind fields and a modestly deep inverted-v
profile suggests that new development will be driven by storm
initiated outflow (i.e. typical hit or miss summertime
thunderstorms). We`ll leave PoPs areawide at 20-30% even though
the radar may have a good scattering of convection during the
afternoon. Storms should generally be small and slow moving. Gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats. Outside
of any convection, temperatures will climb again into the upper
90s to near 100 with heat indices near 105. Convection will be
diurnally driven and diminish during the late evening hours.

Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible on
Wednesday as the trough continues westward. Best coverage of
storms should shift south of I-20 as better moisture gets pushed
south thanks to the expanding ridge across the Central Plains.
Near or slightly above normal temperatures will continue on
Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

As the polar jet sags into the Northeast, the upper ridge that has
been anchored over the Central Plains will rotate clockwise. The
eastern end of the ridge will nose into North Texas, steadily
increasing mid-level heights through the end of the week. The
northern extent of easterly convective activity may skirt our
southeastern zones one last time Thursday afternoon, before the
radar scope goes quiet for a few days. High temperatures will
gain a degree or two each day, with widespread triple digits
during the upcoming weekend. Rich tropical moisture will remain
trapped within the boundary layer, and heat advisory criteria
will likely be exceeded Thursday through early next week.

A compact but deep upper low may dive as far south as the Great
Lakes early next week, amplifying the flow upstream. This will
release the ridge`s grasp on North and Central Texas, with a
corresponding decrease in daytime temperatures. In addition,
northerly flow through the Plains may allow a rare early August
front to slip south of the Red River on Monday, bringing low rain
chances back into the forecast.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with SCT/BKN100 cigs overnight
and light southerly flow. Better moisture and a weak disturbance
will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the region.
We`ll include a VCTS from 21-01Z for the time being. Outside of
convective areas, VFR will prevail with southeast winds around 5
kt.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  79  98  79 100 /  20  10  20   0   5
Waco                98  77  96  76  98 /  20  10  20   5  10
Paris               94  76  95  76  97 /  30  10  10   0   5
Denton              99  76  97  76  99 /  20  10  10   0   5
McKinney            97  76  96  77  98 /  20  10  10   0   5
Dallas              99  81  97  81  99 /  20  10  20   0   5
Terrell             97  76  95  76  97 /  20  20  20   0  10
Corsicana           97  76  95  77  98 /  20  20  30   5  10
Temple              99  75  96  74  98 /  20  10  30   5  10
Mineral Wells       98  74  96  74  97 /  20  10  20   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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