Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 051115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Elevated TSRA will likely impact KMLC for the first few hours of the
TAF period with MVFR vsbys in thunder, and have included a tempo group
through 16z. Beyond the 15z-16z time frame, VFR TAF elements will
prevail for most of the remaining period, but thunder chances
will increase across the ERN OK sites again after 06z, and have
included prob groups for the last portion of the period. Across
the AR sites, VFR elements will prevail through the entire period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/


The transition from the abnormally cool early August weather we`ve
seen of late to more typical hot and humid weather this time of
year has begun. As a result of this transition, shower and storm
chances will increase beginning this morning and will continue
thru Friday.

It is an active night across central and northwest OK along a
zone of mid level waa/isentropic lift (clearly evident on the 315K
surface) on the western edge of the departing central CONUS upper
trough. This zone of forcing will shift southeast with time
toward east central and southeast OK later this morning before
weakening this afternoon. As a result, the higher PoPs will be
focused in this region during the morning hours, with a fast taper
down this afternoon. Some locations could pick up around an inch
of rain locally.

Expect another chance of showers and storms tonight into Thursday
morning, focused farther east across northeast OK and northwest
AR, as the zone of mid level waa/isentropic lift gradually shifts
east each night. The forcing tonight does not appear to be as
strong as this morning, as evidenced by guidance staying fairly
conservative with QPF. Another round of showers and storms is
expected Thursday night into Friday, this time more focused on NW
AR and neighboring far NE OK, in tandem with the aforementioned
eastward shift to the forcing each night.

Pronounced mid level height rises occur from southwest to
northeast Thursday night into Friday. By Saturday, H5 ridging is
in place over the region and will be strong thru the weekend. Some
weakening of the ridge occurs as the center retrogrades back to
the Southwest next week. Blended guidance has PoPs returning to
the W AR and far E OK, especially in the terrain areas, and this
seems reasonable.

Temperature wise, expect a couple more days, today and tomorrow,
of below average high temps before summer returns. This is due
mainly to more cloud cover expected. The hottest temps will be
this weekend into Monday, before tailing off a bit in tandem with
weakening mid level ridge.





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