Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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530 FXUS64 KTSA 060228 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 928 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 916 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Just a few light showers linger across northwest AR as upper system continues to lift northeast away from the area. Current sfc dew point depressions remain less than 3 degrees at virtually all reporting stations, and with light winds and no advection of drier air evident tonight, dense fog will become possible, provided sufficient clearing of low and mid cloud deck. This remains somewhat questionable based on current satellite trends, and plan to stick with the patchy dense wording and no advisory for the moment. Will go ahead and add fog to remainder of the forecast area however. Update coming shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Attention quickly turns to Monday with the likelihood of a significant severe weather event late afternoon/evening in association with strong upper storm system. Steep mid level lapse rates overspread warm sector Monday afternoon in advance of system with modest cap limiting convective initiation until late afternoon/early evening. Ample low level moisture will allow MLCAPE values to climb into the 3000-3500 J/kg range by late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. As mid level vort max lifts into the northern Plains, upper trough axis becomes negatively tilted, swinging into the central Plains by 00Z. In conjunction, 300 mb upper jet streak knifes into Oklahoma with extreme upper divergence / diffluence developing over far NE OK/SE KS in association with upper jet couplet. Given the very strong forcing, there is a slight chance (20%) for an isolated supercell or two to develop by late afternoon/early evening in areas northwest of Tulsa with all hazards possible. More widespread storms/higher end severe threat is expected to move in from the west by early to mid evening. Still some question on storm mode evolution, but regardless damaging winds expected with a few QLCS tornadoes possible given the strong kinematics expected. Any storms that do remain discrete would have the potential to produce a strong tornado. Severe threat continues as storms moves into northwest Arkansas Monday night. In addition, with the already saturated soil conditions, could see a limited flash flood threat across NE OK/NW AR. Behind departing system on Tuesday, a drier air-mass will be in place as Pacific front moves through far southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTx region. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms could be possible over aforementioned area, but overall coverage will be limited. Severe weather chances ramp back up on Wednesday as another upper low shifts east out of the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. Overall upper level dynamics will not be a strong as Monday`s system, however a very unstable air-mass will develop ahead of strong cold front, which is progged to move through the area during the day. Stronger deep layer shear (50-55 kts) will support a very large hail / damaging wind threat as broken line of storms move through southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday afternoon. More tranquil / dry conditions are expected for the latter half of the work week into the weekend. Secondary surge of colder air filters into the region as surface high builds into the southern Plains Friday into Saturday. This will provide mild days and cool nights. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Ceilings/visibilities will lower into the IFR to LIFR range overnight into early Monday morning with widespread low clouds/fog. Conditions will begin to improve by mid morning Monday, with MVFR conditions likely to prevail after that time. South to southeast winds will gust over 20 knots at times during the day Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 81 59 82 / 20 20 80 0 FSM 63 83 69 86 / 20 20 70 20 MLC 60 83 66 84 / 20 20 60 0 BVO 56 80 54 81 / 10 20 80 0 FYV 58 81 62 83 / 30 20 80 20 BYV 60 80 64 83 / 40 20 80 20 MKO 60 80 65 82 / 20 20 80 0 MIO 58 80 61 80 / 20 10 90 10 F10 59 80 62 83 / 20 20 80 0 HHW 63 80 68 84 / 10 20 50 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...05