Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 281030
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy fog will quickly diminish after sunrise with VFR conditions
and light winds prevailing. Any afternoon storms will remain very
limited in coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021/

DISCUSSION...
The main forecast challenge remains excessive heat potential for
the next few days before a possible break in the heat arrives
early next week, along with the next chance of thunderstorms.

Rising mid level heights continue today as upper ridge expands
further into the central and southern plains. Deepest moisture
continues to be suppressed south, but still quite a bit of low
level moisture to contend with and based on recent trends, the
NBM continues to be a bit underdone on sfc dew points this
afternoon, especially over NE OK where soil moisture remains
anomalously high. With temps likely a degree or two hotter today
and dew points only negligibly lower, corridor of 110-115 HI
likely again this afternoon from Arkansas R valley northwest
through the Tulsa metro, and will go ahead with a heat warning for
that area, with advisory for all but NW corner of Arkansas.

The trend through Saturday should be for higher actual temps with
some lessening of dew points, with the net effect on Heat Index
values being small. Additional headlines will be needed for much
of the area through Saturday, which should be the peak of actual
temps as low level thermal ridge is pushed south into our area.
Expect quite a few areas to top out AOA 100 by then with humidity
remaining high.

The trend in model data remains supportive of a change in the
pattern by Sunday as ridge amplifies and is suppressed back to the
west. This will force a frontal boundary into the area by that
time, with a resultant increase in shower and thunderstorm
chances. This should also knock several degrees off the temps
across northern areas by Sunday, and elsewhere Mon/Tue, back to at
least a bit below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   96  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   95  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   97  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   96  76  96  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ055>057-060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-054-058-059-063>065-068-069-073-075.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....07


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