Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181038
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs expected this morning across parts of northeast OK
with conditions improving by mid-late morning. Showers across
western AR will gradually shift east of the area later this
morning. More isolated to widely scattered showers should
develop this afternoon. Breezy north winds will persist through
the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Back edge of the rain is across southeast Oklahoma, but there is
continued redevelopment due to southwest flow at low levels just
above the frontal zone. This is a favorable warm advection region
and the low level lift favors ongoing rain. Surface cold
front/wind shift runs from roughly Miami southwest to Eufaula.
Gusty north winds are ongoing across much of northern and central
Oklahoma behind the surface boundary. Mid level trough is still
across western Oklahoma, and until this moves east, there will be
a low chance for precipitation today. Will continue for low pops
for the morning where it`s currently raining, and will introduce
some low pops for afternoon. Instability showers are possible this
afternoon, and there could even some rumbles of thunder given
cold temps aloft.

The next two mornings will feel quite cool with widespread lows in
the 40s, and even some upper 30s possible Saturday morning for
the usual cool spots with the surface ridge in place. Next storm
system starts digging into the Plains by Saturday night/Sunday,
with upper ridge building over Oklahoma. This will result in a
nice warm up over the weekend, with highs back in the mid to upper
70s, with a few low 80s possible on Sunday.

Next week looks unsettled, with low chances of showers/storms each
day. Initial shortwave trough on Sunday night/Monday looks like
it may lift north of the area, and most areas may stay dry. The
better potential for rain will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday, with
a front that looks like it may stall over the area mid week. This
will be associated with an upper level low that could become
cutoff from the main flow. This pattern will favor daily rain and
thunder chances, but the lack of strong flow aloft will tend to
reduce the potential for severe storms well into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  45  67  44 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   66  46  65  43 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   66  46  67  42 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   66  44  67  38 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   61  43  61  36 /  40  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  61  39 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   64  44  66  42 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   64  43  64  40 /  20  10   0   0
F10   66  46  66  42 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   66  47  67  43 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18


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