Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
698
FXUS64 KTSA 222313
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
513 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue through tonight with areas of
reduced vis in the 2-4sm range and drizzle. Scattered light
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm also will remain possible
through tonight, which may result in temporary modest rise in
ceilings. Higher chance of thunderstorms will occur at NW AR sites
between 10-15z with approach of strong upper level low and dry
line. As dry line sweeps through Sat morning, winds will increase
significantly out of the SW with gusts 30-35 knots likely, along
with rapidly clearing skies. A Pacific cold front will move into
NE OK toward the end of the period with a shift to W winds and a
return of broken cigs, mostly likely VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds and isolated showers will continue across the area this
evening, with the better instability just south and east of the
area. We could see some isolated thunderstorms given some elevated
instability over south central OK. We will maintain low chances
for thunderstorms through Saturday morning but it appears the
better severe threat has been shifted southeast. Main forecast
concern, then, focuses around the very windy conditions expected
across the area on Saturday. Wind advisory has been issued for the
potential for gusts from 40 to 45 mph across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.

There will be a brief window for showers and storms Saturday
morning, but surface dryline should push through early, which
should clear things out quickly. Forecast soundings show vigorous
mixing will occur, which should allow the high temperatures to
climb well into the mid 60s to lower 70s. This will raise the fire
spread rates, should any new wildfires get going. Sunday morning
will cool off, with lows back around freezing, but Sunday looks
pleasant with much less wind.

Upper pattern becomes zonal for the beginning of the work week,
which will keep temperatures near normal for a change. Upper flow
shifts more to the northwest by mid week, which could allow
another shot of wintry precipitation by Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  46  68  32 /  20  40  60   0
FSM   50  47  73  35 /  20  50  60   0
MLC   51  48  69  33 /  30  40  60   0
BVO   46  43  65  29 /  20  50  60   0
FYV   50  47  66  31 /  20  40  60   0
BYV   47  46  69  32 /  20  40  60   0
MKO   50  46  67  32 /  20  40  60   0
MIO   47  45  66  31 /  20  40  60   0
F10   50  45  65  32 /  20  40  60   0
HHW   52  49  70  36 /  60  60  60   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for OKZ054>075.

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.