Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
407 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast highlights/challenges will be precipitation chances and
coverage this morning and afternoon.

Currently, embedded mid level low and surface low lifting north
across south central ND. Associated showers with this MCV lifting
north ahead of the wave and also wrapping back west towards the
southern Missouri River Valley. Will readjust POPs to capture this
in the near term this morning. Mainly dry elsewhere across the
west and north central. Widespread stratus covers much of the
area, and will continue to expand/persist today to cover the
majority of western and central ND.

Showers this morning will continue to lift north across my central
and east with the embedded low. Another mid level circulation
across eastern Montana will also generate some showers and bring
some decent rain chances to far western North Dakota later this
morning and afternoon. Scaled back on thunder wording for today
with little if any MUCAPE depicted. Cooled daytime highs quite a
bit from the previous forecast due to the expected cloudiness.

Surface high pressure builds into the region tonight ending
precipitation early to mid evening and clearing the sky from north
to south. The clearing sky and dry airmass will allow temperatures
to drop well into the 30s across my northern counties overnight
and may result in areas of frost forming. Will consider
frost/freeze headlines during today`s day shift.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Mid level ridge builds across the Northern Plains this weekend,
breaks down somewhat early next week, then rebuilds again for
mid-week before breaking down again on Thursday.

Dry air associated with surface high pressure building across
North Dakota will result in cool morning temperatures for both
Saturday and Sunday. Frost will be possible both mornings, across
the north central Saturday and the southwest on Sunday. Will be
considering frost headlines for both periods during the day
shifts. The weekend will be dry with daytime highs in the 60s to
lower 70s.

Some precipitation chances early next week as the ridge breaks
down, but overall remaining dry along with temperatures
continuing to moderate (highs mid 70s to low 80s by Tuesday &
Wednesday as the ridge rebuilds).

Ridge breaks down again by Thursday, and will see a decent S/WV
lifting into the Dakotas for favorable chances for showers and


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Widespread rain will continue to impact mainly eastern parts of
North Dakota including KJMS. There remains a chance for showers at
both KMOT and KBIS, though the trend has been farther to the
east. MVFR/IFR and lower stratus will continue to spread south and
slight east now through the morning, persisting across much of
the area through Friday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will
be confined to mainly far western North Dakota and eastern ND for
Friday afternoon.





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