Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1250 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

No changes were made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

No major changes required for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 518 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A slight delay in precipitation onset across the southwest (likely
not starting until closer to sunrise tomorrow) was introduced in
this update, otherwise no changes were required.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Precipitation chances across the southwest and south central late
tonight through Monday highlights the short term.

A dry and weak cold front continues to traverse across the state,
shifting light southwesterly winds to the northwest. A short wave
will miss the state to the north, over Saskatchewan and Manitoba,
while a trough and associated upper low approaches the Dakotas
from the west. Models are in good agreement that the low will
track across southeastern Montana and make its way into west
central South Dakota by late Monday night.

Forcing ahead of this wave will bring precipitation chances to the
far southwest late tonight, and expand to the south central
through the day on Monday. Precipitation should generally remain
rain late tonight and through most of the day on Monday. But, by
Monday night, snow will begin to mix in across the southwest and
south central. On the back side of the precipitation shield, 12z
NAM BUFKIT soundings suggest some drizzle may be possible for a
window late Monday night as we begin to lose ice aloft.

Regarding precipitation amounts, the model consensus suggests
values between a quarter and a half an inch will be possible
along and south of Interstate 94 Monday and Monday night. Little
to no accumulation is expected from the mixing snow, but some of
the higher elevations over the southwest could see a dusting to an
inch of sloppy wet snow on grassy surfaces.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Precipitation will move out by early Tuesday morning, leaving a
brief cool down in its wake - with highs in the 50s.

Wednesday will warm into the 60s most areas ahead of the next
shortwave which will bring spotty rain to the east Wednesday
night into Thursday and a cool down into the 50s. Then Friday and
Saturday will be dry with temperatures returning into the 60s. All
of the 12z global deterministic models suggest a trough deepening
and approaching the state by Sunday afternoon/evening, but
specific details will remain murky until it gets closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. MVFR ceilings
possible at KDIK around 22Z with light rain showers.




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