Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181737
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Took the mention of thunder out of the forecast this afternoon.
May see a bit of late afternoon clearing northwest. Otherwise
current forecast looks ok.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Upper Low/meso vortex now making its way northeast through the
Northern plains. Goes 16 Near IR snow/ice band revealing mainly
low level water clouds across the south central so expect the
precipitation field to diminish rather steadily without ice
feeding.

Dense fog advisory will be allowed to expire at 10 AM CDT
southwest where visibilities are improving.

Frost will be an issue tonight northwest and north central. Will
wait until this afternoon to get the latest minimum temperatures
but with clearing skies tonight lows in the low to mid 320s will
support patchy to widespread frost.

UPDATE
Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Opted to go with a dense fog advisory for much of southwestern
North Dakota through mid morning. Areas web cams indicate low
visibility along with a few observations across the southwest at a
quarter of a mile.

Otherwise tweaked POPs a bit based on latest radar and near term
trends for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast highlights/challenges will be precipitation chances and
coverage this morning and afternoon.

Currently, embedded mid level low and surface low lifting north
across south central ND. Associated showers with this MCV lifting
north ahead of the wave and also wrapping back west towards the
southern Missouri River Valley. Will readjust POPs to capture this
in the near term this morning. Mainly dry elsewhere across the
west and north central. Widespread stratus covers much of the
area, and will continue to expand/persist today to cover the
majority of western and central ND.

Showers this morning will continue to lift north across my central
and east with the embedded low. Another mid level circulation
across eastern Montana will also generate some showers and bring
some decent rain chances to far western North Dakota later this
morning and afternoon. Scaled back on thunder wording for today
with little if any MUCAPE depicted. Cooled daytime highs quite a
bit from the previous forecast due to the expected cloudiness.

Surface high pressure builds into the region tonight ending
precipitation early to mid evening and clearing the sky from north
to south. The clearing sky and dry airmass will allow temperatures
to drop well into the 30s across my northern counties overnight
and may result in areas of frost forming. Will consider
frost/freeze headlines during today`s day shift.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Mid level ridge builds across the Northern Plains this weekend,
breaks down somewhat early next week, then rebuilds again for
mid-week before breaking down again on Thursday.

Dry air associated with surface high pressure building across
North Dakota will result in cool morning temperatures for both
Saturday and Sunday. Frost will be possible both mornings, across
the north central Saturday and the southwest on Sunday. Will be
considering frost headlines for both periods during the day
shifts. The weekend will be dry with daytime highs in the 60s to
lower 70s.

Some precipitation chances early next week as the ridge breaks
down, but overall remaining dry along with temperatures
continuing to moderate (highs mid 70s to low 80s by Tuesday &
Wednesday as the ridge rebuilds).

Ridge breaks down again by Thursday, and will see a decent S/WV
lifting into the Dakotas for favorable chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The taf period begins with ifr/mvfr cigs and mvfr vsbys in light
rain at KDIK/KJMS. Cigs/vsbys will slowly improve across the
northern terminals (KISN/KMOT) by 00z Saturday, then over the
southern terminals (KDIK/KBIS/KJMS) between 04z and 09z Saturday.
Vfr cigs/vsbys expected thereafter with gusty northeasterly winds
between 15kt and 25kt Saturday from KBIS to KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



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