Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 181801 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
101 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Updating Aviation section below for the 18Z TAF update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

In the warm sector today as a low pressure system approaches but
most precipitation will hold off until Saturday morning. Temperatures
will be much warmer today, but winds will still be breezy though a
little lighter than Thursday.

An upper-level short wave approaches this afternoon and passes
overhead early Saturday morning and will push a precipitation
shield through the area; however, much of the upper level support
moves off to the east as the surface low approaches, so the system
gets pulled apart over the area leading to diminishing
precipitation - portions of NW Wisconsin may not even see a drop.
So chances for fire weather relief are minimal. This is the only
weather maker for short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Dry and mild conditions return late-weekend through much of next
week. While relative humidity values will fall into the 20 to 30
percent range through much of the long term period, relatively
light winds will preclude any widespread critical fire weather
conditions. Highs in the 60s to 70s each day, warmest on Wednesday
when a few spots approach 80 degrees, but cooler near Lake
Superior due an expected lake breeze. After Saturday night when
lows will range from the low 30s to low 40s, lows will be in the
40s through next week.

On the synoptic scale an area of high pressure builds across the
Upper Great Lakes Sunday into Monday leading to clearing skies and
near normal temperatures. A warm front builds in from south to north
on Monday which may result in rain showers across parts of east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday, but much of the
Northland will remain dry. A weak clipper-level mid-level shortwave
trough will track towards the Upper Midwest on Tuesday which will
lead to additional cloud cover the Northland but little to no chance
for precipitation. A mid/upper level longwave ridge then builds over
the Great Plains and Midwest mid to late week resulting in generally
dry and mild conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Conditions will be VFR for the first half of the period. A low
pressure area will spread light rain and MVFR ceilings into
northeast MN this evening and overnight, then linger into Saturday
morning. There could be pockets of IFR ceilings overnight.
Northwest WI will not be impacted much by this low.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  49  59  38 /   0  30  30  20
INL  77  42  61  34 /  30  70  20   0
BRD  81  50  62  41 /  20  30  30  20
HYR  81  52  68  39 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  73  49  63  37 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolfe
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...CLC



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