571
FXUS64 KSJT 100819
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
319 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front has moved through the area tonight, leaving west
central Texas in a much cooler air mass. Highs were as warm as 100
degrees at San Angelo and Junction yesterday, while today we`re
looking for highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Low clouds are
currently affecting much of the area, especially south of I-20.
Expect cloud cover to generally persist across the entire forecast
through Friday night.

More pressing, we may see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Interstate 20 late this morning into the
afternoon hours. While most of this activity will not be severe, a
few storms could strengthen enough to produce marginally severe
hail of up to an inch, or gusty winds approaching 60 mph.

Tonight, expect storms to end by around 7 or 8 PM, leaving the
area under mainly cloud skies, and continued east to northeast
winds. Lows should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The rest of the weekend will continue to see an unsettled
pattern. An isolated severe thunderstorm possible in Crockett
county Saturday afternoon/evening as moisture and instability
returns and an upper shortwaveby moves across. Moisture and
instability then further increases late Saturday night into
Sunday morning as a warm front moves through. With precipital
water values increasing to 1.5 inches, as least localized flooding
will be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Some
storms could become severe as GFS MUCAPES increase to 1500-2500
J/KG. midday Sunday.

There is a decrease in activity Monday as a cold front moves
through, bringing in drier air. Instability does increase
significantly Wednesday and Wednesday night, and along with a
shortwave may produce another round of severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

MVFR ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 foot range are affecting all
sites south of KABI late tonight. Expect these low clouds to
persist through 12Z this morning, with ceilings then rising to VFR
heights by 18Z Friday, and expected to remain VFR through the rest
of the TAF period. There may also be a few SHRA and TSRA that
could affect areas south of KSJT and KBBD that develop by late
morning or early afternoon. Have introduced some VCTS`s and PROB30
groups to address this potential for Friday afternoon. Winds
should remain east/northeast through the period with a few gusts
to around 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  60  71  58 /  10  20  60  50
San Angelo  79  60  74  62 /  30  20  80  50
Junction    83  62  81  65 /  20  20  50  50
Brownwood   78  60  73  61 /  10  10  50  50
Sweetwater  78  60  69  58 /  10  20  80  50
Ozona       77  62  74  63 /  40  30  70  60
Brady       78  61  74  62 /  20  10  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20