Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
940 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A passing low pressure system will bring occasional rain through
this evening, followed by gradually diminishing showers late
tonight into Thursday. Other passing disturbances will produce
showers at times Friday into Saturday, followed by dry and
warming conditions early next week.


940 PM update...
Surface cold front currently extends from just east of Syracuse
south across the local Binghamton area into the Wyoming Valley.
A line of mainly light showers stretches along this boundary
which will clear the western Catskills around 1-2AM. Will
continue with likely pops along the surface feature as it
progresses eastward. Late tonight the most persistent activity
will reside in the northern forecast area where wrap around
moisture will persist into the early afternoon period. Just
minor adjustments to current forecast.

3 PM update...

Low pressure over Delaware will move northeast while a cold
front sweeps east from southeast Ontario and the Ohio Valley. A
deep southeast flow continues to pump moisture into the area off
the Atlantic. An area of rain from NEPA to upper Susquehanna and
Mohawk Valleys will lift northeast ahead of the front. The front
will pass through the area this evening with showers. The
showers will be heaviest and longest lasting in the Finger Lakes
to the western Mohawk Valley. This is where the best forcing
will be ahead of an upper level low.

Late tonight the showers taper off but continue into Thursday
afternoon before ending. Most of the showers will be in CNY
especially along and north of the thruway. Moisture will be wrap
around as the upper level trough moves through. 850mb fall to
around +2C so showers remain rain.

Rain for this event has gotten to around an inch where the band
is from Hazleton to Cooperstown. Some minor river and stream
rises but nothing to worry about.

Lows tonight in the lower 40s. Highs Thursday from the lower 50s
northeast to around 60 Scranton to Elmira. Cooler Thursday night
with partial clearing. Lows mostly upper 30s but lower 40s
Wyoming Valley.


Unsettled weather will continue into Friday as a short wave digs
into the lakes and another wave moves up along the east coast.
The forecast area will be between these two systems as scattered
showers slowly fill in across the area, aided by afternoon

Cold front drops through the area Friday night leaving
us in a weak cold advection pattern under an upper trough.
Expect increases daytime instability and showers, especially as
the base of the upper trough swings through.

Both days will have below normal daytime temperatures with
clouds, rainfall amounts will generally be light.


Showers taper off Saturday night into early Sunday as high
pressure builds in. Some isolated showers may linger into Sunday
afternoon over the extreme northern and eastern parts of the
forecast area.

Ridge continues to build through the end of the forecast period
bringing temperatures well above normal. Highs would be well
into the 70s and close to 80 at least in the valleys and away
from the lakes.

430 am update... Again, the existing forecast seems to be on
target, so not much was changed.

Global models remain consistent from earlier runs, in showing a
large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the
northeastern CONUS this weekend. This trough is progged to lift
out and get replaced by upper ridging over the eastern CONUS
next week.

In general, this means cool, showery weather to start the
weekend, with slow improvement starting as early as Sunday. By
Monday-Tuesday, a notable trend towards drier, much warmer
conditions is still foreseen.


Low pressure moving up the East Coast and a cold front passing
this evening will keep MVFR and some IFR conditions through
tonight. Some improvement Thursday morning with VFR expected
later Thursday afternoon at all sites.

For now a mix of fuel alternate and IFR ceilings with vsbys
generally 2-5SM. A band of rain associated with the frontal
boundary is moving through KSYR, KITH, KBGM and KAVP at this
time. This rain band will continue to slowly push off to the
east over the next few hours.

With the cold front some IFR vsbys in CNY from now until 05z.
With and behind the cold front cigs will drop to Fuel alternate
or IFR. After 06z showers end, vsbys slowly improve and cigs
start to gradually rise. West winds will help mix the low
levels. Improvement to MVFR cigs around or just after 12z
except RME, which could take until at least 15z.

Improving to VFR from SW to NE across the area between 18z
(KAVP, KELM) and 21z (KSYR, KRME) Thursday afternoon.

Previous easterly winds are now shifting WNW at 5-10 kts. Late
tonight and especially on Thursday west winds will increase to 8
to 15 kts with some higher gusts possible. Wind start to
slowly diminish after 21z Thursday or so.


Thursday night...VFR conditions. Mid and high level clouds
increase from the south later at night. High confidence.

Friday to Sunday morning...Some restrictions possible from rain
showers at times. Moderate confidence.

Sunday Afternoon to Monday...VFR. High confidence.




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