Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 162050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
350 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

/Through Tonight/

Breezy west winds behind a Pacific front/dryline boundary has
resulted in a warm and dry afternoon. The main concern today has
been fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in
effect through 7pm. RHs across our western zones have fallen to
around 10%, and it will take until about midnight before some RHs
climb back above 30%. However, winds will be on the down trend as
the surface pressure gradient lessens tonight. A mild and
pleasant evening can be expected otherwise.

The surface low currently located in Kansas will keep moving
eastward over the next several hours, and its associated cold
front will slide southward across the Red River around midnight.
This weak front is expected to move as far south as I-20 by
daybreak before stalling. In the meantime, a broad surface low
will develop across West Texas, inducing some stronger south
winds on its eastern periphery. As a result, shallow moisture
should be pulled back northward through Central Texas during this
time and surface dewpoints will begin climbing back into the 50s
and 60s after being scoured out today. As this occurs, some
patchy fog may develop across our southern zones and have
introduced a mention of patchy fog into the forecast. Overnight
lows will be fairly tricky as they will depend on how far south
the front progresses, which I`m currently anticipating to reach
I-20 prior to daybreak. Have generally hedged toward warmer
guidance with the idea that some increasing high clouds should
also be present.

The dryline should become repositioned to our west to by daybreak
Saturday since moisture will have overspread much of the Texas
Hill Country. This will mean a triple-point setup at the surface
low with the dryline draped southward from the low and the
stalled front positioned near I-20. This scenario will set the
stage for the development of some strong or potentially severe
storms Saturday afternoon/evening, as discussed below.



/Saturday through Friday/

A cold front is forecasted to extend near a Paris to Eastland line
at 7 AM Saturday. As a surface low moves east into the Ohio River
Valley, this front should move to south of the I-20 corridor
before becoming quasi-stationary. Meanwhile a surface low that is
forecasted to be west of San Angelo at 7 AM Saturday should move
east-northeast to near southwest of Glen Rose by 7 PM Saturday
with a surface low extended southwest from the low to near
Lampasas. The forecast hodographs indicate the potential for
splitting supercells. During the late afternoon into Saturday
evening, large hail and damaging winds will be possible along and
south of the frontal boundary and as the strong move to the north
of the front, the threat should come more in the way of large
hail. It will be warm again Saturday with highs expected to
range from the lower 50s northwest to the mid 80s south.

The frontal boundary will lift north Saturday night ahead of an
advancing shortwave. The best chances of showers and
thunderstorms will shift mainly to the east of I-35 after midnight
Saturday night with a possible round of elevated convection
developing across the northeastern zones in an area of strong lift
along and north of the frontal boundary. Locally heavy rain and
marginally severe hail will be possible with these storms.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s northwest to the mid
60s southeast.

A Pacific cold front will enter the western part of the forecast
area by midday Sunday. There will be the potential for severe
storms along and east of the I-35 corridor ahead of this feature.
There is still some questions given the cloud cover and the cap,
but if the storms develop, there will be sufficient instability
and shear for large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado to two
- especially east of I-35 and north of I-20. There will be an
elevated fire weather threat across the western zones Sunday
afternoon where relative humidities will fall into the teens and
20s and winds will become southwesterly at 15 to 20 mph behind the
front. Highs Sunday will range from around 70 degrees northeast
to the mid 80s southwest.

Rain chances will linger into Sunday night mainly east of I-35.
It will be cooler with overnight lows in the 50s. As the
aforementioned Pacific cold front progresses through the rest of
North and Central Texas overnight into Monday morning, winds will
become west and then northwesterly. These winds will bring drier
air into the region. Despite the cooler temperatures, with highs
expected to be still above normal in the 70s, relative humidities
will fall into the 20-30 percent range across much of the region.
Near critical fire weather conditions are possible mainly west of
I-35 and depending on the amount and areal of coverage of rain,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible across much of the
rest of the forecast area.

We will come under northwesterly flow aloft early in the week as
an upper level low moves east from the Central Plains across the
Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States. Meanwhile, upper
level ridging will build across the Rockies. Dry weather is
expected for much of the work week though we may see some low
rain chances by Friday.



.AVIATION... /Issued 100 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/
/18Z TAFs/

Breezy west winds will prevail at the TAF sites through this
afternoon. While a few gusts have exceeded 25 kts, do not expect
these to be prevalent enough to cause prolonged crosswind
concerns. Winds should decrease this evening while becoming a bit
more southerly as the pressure gradient relaxes. Overnight, a
cold front will enter North Texas and stall near I-20. This should
result in a few hours of light and variable winds or even light
north winds at DFW Metroplex airports through Saturday morning. In
the meantime, a surge of very shallow moisture should be moving
northward through Central Texas which may result in some MVFR cigs
at Waco after daybreak which could last through midday. At this
time, don`t expect moisture to be deep enough to result in cigs at
DFW Metroplex airports, although we`ll need to keep an eye on
this and possibly tempo some cigs near 1 kft. The front should
lift back to the north as a warm front by late Saturday morning
and south winds will resume. An increase in mid/high cloud can be
expected into the afternoon. By 3-5 PM, isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop across parts of North Texas which could
affect some TAF sites and have introduced VCTS in the extended
DFW TAF to account for this potential.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  82  61  82  55 /   5  40  40  40  10
Waco                58  83  63  84  54 /   5  40  30  30  20
Paris               52  75  57  70  53 /   5  10  50  70  40
Denton              49  77  57  79  53 /   5  30  40  30  10
McKinney            51  78  58  76  53 /   5  30  40  50  20
Dallas              57  81  63  80  56 /   5  40  40  40  20
Terrell             56  79  62  78  53 /   5  40  40  50  20
Corsicana           62  82  64  80  55 /   5  40  40  50  30
Temple              59  83  64  83  55 /   5  40  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       49  79  56  83  51 /   5  30  30  20  10


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-



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