969
FXUS64 KFWD 281939
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through this upcoming
  week with highs in the 90s. Afternoon heat indices will rise
  into the upper 90s to around 103 in many areas each afternoon.

- There are low chances for storms most days next week, mainly
  during the afternoons. Best chances will be on Monday and
  Tuesday across North Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/
/Today through Sunday Afternoon/

An overall tranquil, but warm and humid weekend is unfolding
across much of North and Central Texas as high pressure dominates
much of the Southern Plains. Afternoon highs are expected to peak
in the 90s region-wide. Persistently high dewpoints in the 60s
and 70s will push afternoon heat index values into the mid 90s to
around 103 today. Similar to the previous days, there is a very
low chance (< 15%) for some isolated showers and storms this
afternoon. The more favored locations for any afternoon
development are areas north of I-20 near a lingering diffuse
outflow boundary and in far southern Central Texas as the coastal
sea-breeze boundary moves inland. There is still a bit of
uncertainty as to whether anything will truly get going in our
area as large-scale lift remains quite nebulous, but have
introduced low 10% PoPs into the gridded forecast this afternoon
in the aforementioned areas. We`ll continue to monitor for any
necessary increases in PoPs over this afternoon. Any activity will
be diurnally-driven, and will wane with the loss of daytime
heating. Overnight conditions will remain warm and humid, with
Sunday morning lows remaining in the 70s.

Sunday will be much of the same as temperatures peak in the 90s
and heat indices rise up to 103 once again. Slightly better
chances for sea-breeze showers and storms are expected across our
southern Central Texas zones tomorrow afternoon. Severe weather is
not expected with any of today or tomorrow`s activity, though any
stronger storm will be capable of gusty, erratic winds, brief
heavy rain, and lightning. If you have outside activities, remain
weather aware as even nearby storms could impact your location.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Evening Onward/

Better rain chances will return to North Texas over the first
half of this upcoming week. A digging shortwave disturbance will
move along the Canada/US border, sending a cold front south
through the Plains early in the week. This front will likely stall
near the Red River, and become an area of more focused convective
development through Wednesday. The overall severe threat is low
at this time, but we cannot rule out a stronger storm or two
capable of strong, erratic wind gusts mainly Monday night into
Tuesday. The front will eventually retreat northward as a warm
front in response to building high pressure across the Southern
Plains. The burgeoning ridge will lessen rain chances over the
late week, with only an isolated potential Wednesday and Thursday.

Per latest long-term guidance, a disturbance is progged to move
from Mexico into Texas towards the end of the week. This weakness
in the upper ridge will allow for continued low chances for
precipitation as we go into the July 4th holiday. All ensemble
clusters now have precipitation on July 4th, but the exact
locations are up in the air. We`ll continue to monitor incoming
guidance and refine rain chances and locations as we get closer
in time to the day.

Otherwise, expect continued warm and humid mornings with
seasonable afternoons through this upcoming week. Morning lows
will bottom out in the 70s, with afternoon highs peaking mainly
in the 90s. Persistent dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will make it
feel even hotter outside, with daily heat indices in the 90s to
around 103. Make sure to stay cool and hydrated.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail over the next
24-30 hours at all TAF sites. Similar to previous days, expect
a Cu field to develop across the region this afternoon, with
clouds around 5-6 kft. Very isolated showers and storms will be
possible either north of I-20 or across southern Central Texas
this afternoon. If a storm were to get going, any stronger cell
could produce gusty, erratic winds, lightning, and brief heavy
rain. Ultimately, coverage will remain quite spotty and should
preclude much of an impact to the airports. Will continue to keep
an eye on satellite and radar trends and amend as needed.

MVFR stratus is expected to move into Central Texas tomorrow
morning, but probability of impacting ACT is low enough to keep
out of the TAF at this time. If ACT were to be impacted by low
cigs, the best time frame would be between 12-15Z.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  96  77  96  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
Waco                75  95  75  95  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
Paris               75  93  75  93  73 /   0   5   0  20  30
Denton              76  97  76  96  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
McKinney            77  95  77  96  76 /   0   0   0  20  20
Dallas              78  97  78  98  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
Terrell             75  95  75  96  74 /   0   0   0  20  20
Corsicana           75  94  76  96  76 /   0   5   0  10  10
Temple              73  95  74  96  73 /   0   5   0  10  10
Mineral Wells       75  97  75  97  73 /   0   0   0  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$