Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
154 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Latest visible imagery shows a mix of sun and cloud across
western/central North Dakota. Cumulus field evident across
northwest and north central, and some cumulus along with high
clouds elsewhere. Pressure falls continue to push into eastern
North Dakota ahead of a cold front, with 3hr pressure rises
across the west and central. Adjusted high temperatures into the
upper 70s north, with upper 80s south central to the lower 90s far
southern James River Valley.

Water vapor imagery shows our next mid level shortwave slowly
moving north from Colorado, which will promote the development of
showers and thunderstorms into southern South Dakota between 00z
and 03z. Some of the CAM`s show an area of showers/thunderstorms
extending near and south of Ellendale by 03z, and have added this
area into the forecast grids this evening. Otherwise, the trend
is for the ongoing convection in South Dakota to lift into
southern North Dakota 06z-12z Monday, mainly along and south of
Interstate 94. This convection will be moving into an area of
weakening CAPE/Shear. Thus at this time most of the thunderstorms
should remain non-severe.

For Monday, greater instability begins to initiate in the afternoon
with another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Think the south
has the best opportunity for severe weather chances as the highest
CAPE/Shear again resides along and south of Interstate 94.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday night
through Tuesday night, then taper off from west to east during
the day Wednesday. This is in response to a slow moving upper low
which shifts from Wyoming into central and eastern North Dakota.
A brief break Wednesday night into most of Thursday, then periodic
showers/thunderstorms return via a southwest flow aloft through


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Vfr cigs vsbys forecast this taf period; however another round of
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the southern terminals
of KDIK/KBIS/KJMS after 06z-21z Monday. Brief gusty winds of 25kt
to 40kt along with and heavy downpours can be expected during this
time. A tempo group was added for each of the southern terminals.
KISN/KMOT will be far enough removed from the precipiation and
will keep them dry through 18z Monday.




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