Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
855 AM MST Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers will gradually end from west to
east by this afternoon. Be prepared for winter driving conditions,
especially this morning. Drying and warming conditions return to
the area early to mid week. There is another chance of
precipitation by Thursday and Friday as moist westerly flow


.DISCUSSION...Rain and snow showers continue across portions of
northern Arizona this morning as a winter weather system crosses
the area. Current satellite and radar imagery reveal the primary
band of rain and snow showers is impacting areas east of a line
from Heber-Overgaard to Window Rock. A secondary band of showers
can be seen stretching from Munds Park northeast to Many Farms.
These showers are forecast to move eastward through the day,
holding on the longest near the Four Corners. In the wake of these
showers, forecast sounding indicate dry and stable conditions
with only isolated pockets of rain and snow possible. A Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect near the Black Mesa area of
northern Navajo County through noon today.

In addition, strong westerly winds will continue across east-
central Arizona today, with gusts possible into the 40 to 45 mph
range. A Wind Advisory remains in effect in this area through 8
pm this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /404 AM MST/...The upper trough axis is moving
into western Arizona at 330 AM. Lift along and ahead of the trough
is producing widespread rain and snow showers, with snow levels
falling from west to east to 4000 to 5000 feet. The best potential
for additional snow will be through around 6 to 8 AM for Coconino
and higher elevations of Yavapai Counties including Flagstaff. The
main area of showers will shift into Navajo and Apache counties
later in the morning and then gradually end from west to east by
mid to late afternoon. Will monitor precipitation trends over the
next couple of hours and possibly end the Winter Weather Advisory
for the Mogollon Rim a bit earlier than the current Noon
expiration. The advisory for northwest Coconino and northern
Navajo county until noon still looks good. All of northern Arizona
will remain breezy today. The highest wind gusts are forecast for
east central Arizona including the Little Colorado River valley
and adjacent areas where a Wind Advisory is in effect from 8 AM to
5 PM MST for 40-45 mph gusts.

For Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the
weather pattern with warmer temperatures, and generally light
winds. A Pacific moisture plume is currently forecast to slide
southward into our region late Wednesday through Thursday bringing
cloudy skies and a good chance of mainly rain showers. Still some
uncertainty with snow levels but most guidance points to mainly
rain below about 8000 feet.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Rain and snow will continue to
produce areas of IFR to LIFR conditions through 20z. Snow levels
4000-5000 feet MSL. Showers will decrease with improving conditions
expected across all of northern after 20z. VFR conditions return
later this afternoon into Monday with just a few lingering mountain

General west winds 15-25 kts through the day. Stronger winds gusting
near 40 kts will develop from KINW east this afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Rain with mountain snow above 4,000 to 5,000 feet
will continue this morning, and then diminish from west to east this
afternoon. Expect cold daytime weather with breezy winds. Stronger
winds gusting to 45 mph will develop generally from Winslow east to
the New Mexico border this afternoon. Monday will see dry weather
with temperatures beginning to warm.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure will bring a return to
warmer weather through Wednesday. Breezy and unsettled conditions
may return by Thursday.


this afternoon FOR AZZ011-013-014- 017-040.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today FOR AZZ009-039.




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