Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222028
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
328 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Cloudy, cool and rainy day for Middle Tennessee. Temperatures have
struggled to reach the upper 50s for places west of the Plateau,
while current temps are in the lower 50s along the Plateau. The
first wave of precip that moved through dropped a radar estimated
0.5 to 1.25 inches over much of our forecast area. We`ve had a
break in the precip over areas south of I-40 for a couple of
hours, however another wave of rain is moving north out of
Alabama and will continue it`s trek northward this afternoon. This
pattern should continue tonight as the upper low moves over
western TN. The heavier precip axis from now until midnight
appears to have moved slightly westward into West TN, however
it`s possible that many areas in Middle Tennessee could still see
an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall before midnight. The upper
low is in no hurry to move out of the Tennessee River Valley and
will continue to provide showers and a few rumbles of thunder
throughout the day on Monday. Showers should be more scattered
than they were today and the deeper moisture should remain east of
our area. By Tuesday only a few lingering light showers are
expected, while the upper low slowly meanders just to our
northeast. This means steady northwest flow on the back end of
the low will keep conditions relatively cool and cloudy. By
Tuesday night the weakening upper low will finally push to the
northeast allowing for only chance pops through Wednesday.

The next upper low will swing down the upper trough Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Models are currently pushing this low just to our
south, which is great news if we`re looking for a real break in
precip. Right now the driest period of this coming work week will
be during the day on Thursday if this wave keeps its southerly
track. We`ll keep clouds around though, and overnight temperatures
will take a solid dip into the 40s. Models aren`t in great
agreement heading into next weekend, but they do keep the upper
trough over the eastern U.S. so another shot of precip will
certainly be possible as we head into Saturday. There is the
indication of an upper ridge building and bringing warmer and dry
conditions next Sunday. Fingers crossed!

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Area terminals will see deteriorating flight conditions for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. Western sites, including
BNA, MQY and CKV, which might start the forecast period with MVFR
or VFR conditions, will see a steady deterioration to IFR
conditions by 00z or 01z. Meanwhile, CSV is forecast to see mainly a
mix of VFR and MVFR throughout the afternoon and evening,
with perhaps some brief periods of IFR as we get close to 00z.
Late tonight, conditions are forecast to gradually improve again,
with MVFR returning to BNA, MQY and CKV after 08z, and CSV
persisting with mainly VFR.

East and southeast surface winds will become gusty by late today
and this evening, with some gusts to around 30 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  69  54  68  53 / 100  70  50  40  20
Clarksville    56  68  53  66  51 / 100  70  50  40  20
Crossville     52  64  51  64  50 /  80  80  70  60  30
Columbia       56  67  53  67  53 / 100  60  40  40  10
Lawrenceburg   56  68  52  68  52 / 100  60  40  40  10
Waverly        56  66  53  67  53 / 100  60  50  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........19


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