Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 150359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1159 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Forecast trending a bit wetter overnight, particularly across
northern lower Michigan. While deep convection is, and looks to
remain, off to our south, approaching jet forcing and vort max
driving a larger area of light rain into Wisconsin and into
northern lower Michigan. Expect this rain to expand further into
the region overnight, exiting off to our east late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts will remain limited, but enough
to hopefully alleviate some of the very dry surface conditions.
Abundant cloud cover will also result in a mild night, with
readings largely in the 50s by morning. Inherited grids have been
adjusted to reflect this wetter and bit milder forecast.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

...Some showers developing tonight across northern Lower...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Split flow pattern continues across the
western CONUS with an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest and a
cutoff low over the central Great Basin.  Confluence axis where
these two streams merge back together cuts right across Wisconsin/
Lower Michigan...with stronger westerlies displaced to the north
across far northern Manitoba/Ontario.  This overall pattern won`t
change in the near term...afternoon water vapor imagery shows a
disturbance getting kicked out the the Great Basin cutoff low and
lifting northeast into western portions of South Dakota/Nebraska.
Afternoon surface analysis shows the upper Great Lakes stuck between
a pair of cold fronts...a persistent boundary extending from the
central Plains west across central portions of Illinois/Indiana/
Ohio...and a second boundary associated with stronger westerlies
aloft across northern Quebec/Ontario/central Manitoba.  Appears that
this latter boundary will slip into northern Michigan by Tuesday

Primary Forecast Concerns: Main issue for tonight is does it rain
across northern Michigan?  Showers have been blossoming across
southern Minnesota over the past couple of hours within the entrance
region of a jet streak to the north of Lake Superior...and what
appears to be small vorticity center over southwest Minnesota.
Expect this activity to drift northeast this evening.  Suspect that
some scattered shower activity will slide into northwest Lower later
this evening...with much of northern Lower probably getting into
some threat of mostly light precipitation as the night progresses...
as jet level forcing and approaching vorticity maximum counterbalance
overall isentropic downsloping.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

...Elevated Fire Danger...

High Impact Weather Potential...Elevated fire danger is expected
through the upcoming week with low humidity and warm temperatures
on top of the currently dry condtions.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Tuesday, High pressure begins to build
into the region following the front that moved out of the Upper
Great Lakes, overnight. This will pump more dry air into the
region, and as we mix higher during the afternoon, will expect
that the relative humidity will drop to around 20-25%. Wednesday,
high continues to pour dry air into the region, and with the mid-
level dry air moving into the region the possibility sub-20% RH
will be possible for the afternoon. Wednesday night looks to be
rather quiet, but there is a possibility of rain near Lake

Primary Forecast Concerns...The models are all over the place with
the convection for Tuesday morning, and then again Wednesday
morning and Wednesday night. The GFS and ECMWF have alternating
times of when the rain will affect the region, and then it is
expected to be light. Will go with the slight chance pops that the
blended model pops have put in.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Elevated fire danger through this
week at the least.

Thursday through Friday night, will expect high pressure to
continue the warm temperatures and the low relative humidity. Will
probably have to lower the RH values for Thursday and Friday
afternoon as we get closer to the event, but it is looking like
the we could be in a prolonged elevated fire danger.

Saturday and Sunday, the blended models are have low chance pops
or even slight chance pops. The issue is that there is a front
that is supposed to move through the region, but the GFS and ECMWF
don`t agree on the timing or the amounts. The ECMWF has trended
down in the amounts over the last two runs and the GFS has a low
point between two qpf bull`s eyes, over N Lower. This is looking
like a sheared cold front where the forcing will be north of and
south of the region. Which would mean, little as well. So will
keep the lower pops as I`m not convinced a whole lot will happen.
This will continue our dry spell, as the lack of rain will still
keep our conditions dry.

Monday, looks to be another dry day rh wise, and probably rain
wise as well, as high pressure builds back into the region and we
start another week with dry conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1157 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas of light rain/drizzle continue to spread into the region,
helping moisten the low levels in the process. This should result
in some low clouds and fog/mist early this morning, especially at
KMBL and KTVC (falling to MVFR/high end IFR). Have trended the
forecast toward this more pessimistic idea. Conditions dry out
later this morning, with mostly clear skies by this afternoon and
evening. Mostly light winds through the period.


Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

With high pressure over the region, most of the time, expecting
wind and waves to remain below small craft criteria through
Wednesday. There is a small chance on Tuesday afternoon when the
waves from Manistee to Point Betsie main get to 5 feet for a few
hours, but at this point, that looks unlikely.




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