Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...Gradual warning trend continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air remain centered from the Great Lakes region eastward into
the NE US early this morning...maintaining clear skies and dry wx
for this entire region. Clear skies and calm winds are again
allowing temps to slowly drop thru the 30s and into the 20s.

For today and tonight...strong surface high will continue to slide
eastward...but lingering surface ridge axis and dry air thru the
column will maintain clear skies across our entire CWA today. Ridge
axis will push east of our area tonight...allowing room for an area
of low pressure over the Ohio Valley to begin to lift further
northeast. Northern edge of the moisture shield associated with the
Ohio Valley low will lift northward into our CWA tonight...resulting
in a steady increase/thickening/lowering of cloud cover from south
to north thru the night. Still appears any precip chances associated
with this system will hold off until after 12Z Tuesday.

Our warming trend will continue today...with afternoon highs ranging
from the upper 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid to upper 60s
across most of Northern Lower Michigan. Temps will certainly be
cooler by the lakeshore as weak winds allow for lake breeze
development this afternoon. Increasing clouds tonight will limit
diurnal cool...with overnight lows mainly in the mid 30s to lower


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...Chances of showers Tuesday before turning briefly cooler...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal aside from monitoring river
levels with runoff from snow melt continuing.

Pattern Forecast: Primary feature to note through the short term
forecast period remains the well-advertised, slow-moving vertically
stacked area of low pressure expected to drift from the lower MS
Valley on Monday into the Ohio Valley by midweek (bringing a
scattered shower threat locally). In addition, a mid-level wave and
attendant surface cold front will cross northern Michigan late in
the day Tuesday, bringing a brief return to below normal

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Tuesday`s PoPs.

Increasing/lowering clouds will be the rule late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, especially across northern lower, as deeper
moisture advects into the region from the south. Attendant chance
for showers increases from south to north across northern lower by
mid-late morning, continuing into the afternoon hours. The
expectation continues that any precip will likely remain scattered
and fairly brief in any one location, and thus chance PoPs (highest
inland south of M-32) will continue to suffice. Any lingering precip
diminishes Tuesday evening as the aforementioned cold front sweeps
from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. Tuesday`s high
temps several degrees cooler than Monday`s...ranging from the mid
50s north to the near 60s across much of northern lower.

Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated on Wednesday with
a gradual return to mostly sunny skies. Noticeably cooler air will
be the main forecast driver as high temps are progged to fall back
below normal...varying from the mid-upper 40s across eastern upper
to the low 50s near and south of M-72.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Primarily quiet weather is expected through much of the extended
period, although occasional chances for scattered precip continue to
plague parts of the forecast. Great threat for wet weather arrives
late Thursday into Friday as an area of low pressure renews upper
level troughing across the region to wrap up the week into the start
of the weekend. Otherwise, near to, at times, slightly below normal
temperatures are expected through much of the second half of the
upcoming week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions will continue at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF
sites thru tonight despite increasing/lowering mid and high cloud
cover along the northern periphery of low pressure lifting into
the Ohio Valley. Light winds will again lend to lake breeze
development this afternoon.


Issued at 213 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Tuesday as high
pressure pushes east away from Michigan. Low pressure will lift thru
the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. Winds will increase and likely reach
SCA criteria Tuesday night across the Western Great Lakes between
this low and high pressure over Minnesota. Dry wx will persist today
and tonight...with increasing chances of precip Tuesday and Tuesday
night along the northern periphery of the Ohio Valley low.




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