000
FXUS63 KAPX 222309
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
709 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

...Cool, with a bit of fog tonight...

High impact weather potential: Not much. Perhaps some locally dense
fog?

Pattern synopsis/forecast: High pressure and increasingly dry air
continue to build into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Skies
are clearing as a result, especially across eastern upper and
portions of northwest lower Michigan.

Not much change heading through tonight, as center of high pressure
drifts slowly just to our west, while deep layer dry flow continues
aloft. Above sets the stage for another round of dry weather and
seasonably chilly conditions.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and
addressing potential for a bit of fog tonight.

Details: Skies expected to continue to clear heading through the
remainder of this afternoon and early evening, leaving behind mostly
clear skies for the overnight. Solar induced deeper mixed layer
where skies have cleared has scoured out some of the low level
moisture. Same cannot be said for areas along and south of M-72
where lingering clouds has resulted in surface dewpoints remaining
in the lower 50s. This does set the stage for some fog development
down that way tonight as lows drop well into the 40s (exceeding
cross-over temperatures). Continued dry air entrainment should
prevent fog from getting too out of hand, but wouldn`t be at all
surprised to see some locally dense fog in some of those sheltered
locations. Now, despite overhead high pressure and attendant
light/calm winds, airmass is not quite as chilly and low level
moisture is not quite as thin as some of our previous ones, so
thinking temperatures will remain "mild" enough to prevent frost
formation. Still, could see some of our traditional colder locations
making a run into the upper 30s, with readings generally in the 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

...Rain chances begin Thursday night...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: A large area of high pressure along with upper
level ridging will continue to dominate northern Michigan`s weather
through Thursday and provide precipitation free weather and warm
temperatures. Early Friday morning precipitation chances return as
warm air along with Gulf moisture rides up the western periphery of
said upper level ridging. The best synoptic forcing and deeper
moisture will be north of M-72. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low
80s Wednesday and Thursday...while Friday will reach into the mid
80s (mid 70s over eastern upper). Of course temperatures will be
cooler along the lake shores once lake breezes form during the
afternoons with daytime heating. Lows will be in the upper 40s to
low 50s Thursday morning and mid to upper 50s Friday morning. Winds
will continue to remain on the light side through the forecast
period as high pressure is overhead and pressure gradients remain
relaxed.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Rain chances continue through the holiday weekend and into Monday as
long range models continue to agree on an several short waves
sweeping through at various times. Won`t be a washout weekend, but
will be partly to mostly cloudy with periodic rain showers and some
thunder. Thunder/rain chances appear the greatest during the
Saturday/Sunday timeframe as the upper level ridge moves off to the
east...allowing chances for the entire forecast area. Highs will be
in the mid 70s to near 80 (eastern upper only in the upper 60s to
low 70s). Lows will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column will remain
over the Western Great Lakes region tonight thru Wednesday...
providing clear skies and light winds. Some lake fog is expected
to develop late tonight into early Wednesday...impacting locations
right along some of the lakeshores...especially around MBL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

A weak pressure gradient in high pressure will hold over the
region through Thursday, resulting in little to no chances for any
wind or wave issues. The gradient does tighten later Thursday
night into Friday ahead of the next low pressure and chance for
showers and ultimately a chance for Thunderstorms. While prolonged
periods of rain is not expected, at least some showers and
thunderstorms look to continue through much of the upcoming
holiday weekend.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB