569
FXUS63 KAPX 271725
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
125 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms today; a few strong storms possible NE Lower?

- Chances for storms at times this weekend, and especially early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge axis slowly exiting stage right...as PV maxima crosses the
Upper Midwest along moist southwesterly flow from the Desert SW to
Ontario...aiding in convection firing along this moisture/trough
axis. 120+kt upper jet on the downstream side of the ridge axis over
western Canada; 1023mb surface high still hangs on over eastern
Canada north of an instability gradient stretching from central WI
through central/southern MI. (Much warmer/more unstable south of
this, where temps reached well into the 80s; much cooler north of
this where some areas struggled to make it into the 60s across NE MI
yesterday.) "Dirty" 1020mb surface high over the southeastern
US...marred by east flow convection off the Atlantic thanks to an
upper disturbance sliding into FL. Theta-e advection into the Upper
Great Lakes attm...with some convective activity developing over
Lake MI and down into SW MI as of 4z.

Expect surface low to track across WI toward the central UP early
this morning...slowly making its way eastward across northern MI
today...keeping some convective activity in play through the day,
particularly for NE Lower MI where temperatures should recover
reasonably well today, into the 70s and 80s. Cold advection begins
to sweep in this evening as a quick-moving PV max digs into the
region...with some low clouds/drizzle/dreary conditions slipping in
tonight. High pressure returns to the area Saturday in response to
shortwave ridging building back into the Upper Midwest...ahead of
troughing which will begin to dig into the region late Sunday into
Monday...bringing with it additional chances for showers/storms,
perhaps starting as early as Saturday night. Signals for mid to late
week next week suggest flow will become a bit more northwesterly
across the Great Lakes...which, at the very least, suggests we
should remain cooler than what we just experienced over the last
several days.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Storm potential through the day...Think we should remain generally
unsettled through the day, particularly across N. Lower and
especially NE Lower as the trough axis aloft and surface reflection
crosses the region. Think most of the area should get into the warm
sector today as the warm front slips through from SW to NE through
midday...but also think the window for destabilization ahead of the
cold front is shorter up here compared to downstate, which could
keep our storms from getting too vigorous. Additionally, not sure we
will have the greatest forcing for ascent here, particularly if the
front gets a bit washed out today. Still...with better flow aloft up
this way...and potential for around 1000J/kg CAPE (give or take),
think storms could get a little rowdy across NE Lower this
afternoon, particularly if they are able to break into sun and get
more diurnal destabilization today. Best chance of this will be near
Saginaw Bay (as usual), though the more likely shot for severe
weather resides to our south across SE Lower, where there is much
better potential for destabilization today. Any storms could still
produce locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Primary forecast concerns into next weekend:

Storm/rain potential Saturday night...Still liking the idea of
upstream convection riding into our area Saturday night along the
warm front and ahead of a PV max crossing Manitoba/Ontario. Best
potential attm should be across the Yoop...but thickness gradient
could support storms tracking a bit more south of current
expectations. Additionally...looks like the atmosphere may not be
quite as moist with this next system, which could limit (excessive)
rainfall potential...and do think upstream activity will be riding
into a less favorable environment overall, as we should be a bit
cooler here.

Storm chances Sunday night through Monday...Think the next niblet
approaching from the northwest Sunday night into Monday will be
worth keeping an eye on, as it could be a little more robust of a
feature than recent action, with better dynamics/shear to work with,
     and perhaps better forcing as well. Still a lot of uncertainty in
timing to contend with for us...and think Saturday night/Sunday
morning activity could impact what happens Sunday afternoon...but
will still be the next best shot for action for the Midwest/Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A few isolated showers/storms may develop this afternoon, although
chances are low that they`ll directly impact any of the terminals.
Otherwise, varied CIGs across northern Michigan ranging from
LIFR/IFR north to increasing probabilities for VFR at MBL/TVC/APN
through the remainder of the daylight hours. Increasing probabilities
for at least MVFR CIGs, if not lower, at all terminals tonight
before cloud bases rise and scatter out through Saturday morning.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds this afternoon veer more
westerly tonight while losing most of the gustiness.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MJG