Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
346 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018


Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Confident that the feed of dry air on brisk ely winds will limit
light snowfall to sw Lafayette County. 1 to 3 inches is the
forecast there. The strong shortwave trough, currently over wrn
IA, diving sewd and weakening this afternoon and tnt also supports
a drier scenario for sw WI. The sfc low pressure area will
gradually fill with time as it moves from ern KS to the Ohio River
Valley. However, the pressure gradient between the low and a
strong polar high over James Bay, Canada will support ely wind
gusts of 30-35 mph today, and remaining gusty near Lake MI tnt.

Sunday Through Tuesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in good agreement with taking the 500 mb ridge axis and
associated surface high pressure to the east of the region Sunday
into Sunday night. Dry east to southeast flow over the area will
continue to bring quiet weather to the area.

Lowered dew points Sunday, as good low level mixing and ample
sunshine should bring very low relative humidity values away from
Lake Michigan. Look for highs Sunday ranging from the upper 30s
near the lake, to the middle 40s in south central Wisconsin. Lows
should drop into the middle to upper 20s Sunday night.

Models then show southwest flow at 500 mb developing over the
region and extending into the southern Plains Monday into Tuesday.
This will help bring low pressure northeast either through or just
to the south of the area later Monday night into Tuesday. There is
some uncertainty with the low track, which would affect
temperatures and thunder chances.

Despite this, there looks to be rather robust warm air and
moisture advection Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the low
across the area. Forecast soundings are showing deep saturation
through the air column during this period, as a result.

Thus, will continue with the higher end PoPs for Monday night
into Tuesday. Maintained the slight chances for thunder as well,
with weak elevated CAPE lingering. Highs should warm from the
middle to upper 40s Monday, to the middle to upper 50s Tuesday.
This may change, depending on where the low tracks.


Tuesday Night Through Friday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Cold air advection behind the low Tuesday night will bring any
lingering rain to an end by later in the night. Models are then
generally showing a broad 500 mb trough developing over the Upper
Midwest region for Wednesday into Friday. There are timing and
placement differences with the track of a fairly potent 500 mb
vorticity maximum Friday, though most models try to bring it
southeast into the area Friday.

Dry conditions look on tap for Wednesday, with a cold front
pushing through the area later Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Models are rather modest with moisture and upward
vertical motion during this time. Kept small PoPs for Thursday
morning for now, though there is uncertainty with if this will

Models are then showing a fairly consistent signal for strong cold
air advection behind the front for Thursday, with a secondary
surge of cold air advection possible on Friday. There may be some
snow showers with the passing 500 mb vorticity maximum as well. It
would be a rather chilly end to March, if this cold air advection
push does work out.



Periods of light snow over southwest Lafayette Co. today with
vsbys ranging from 1-6SM. MVFR Cigs may occur at times. Otherwise
VFR conditions over the remainder of S WI today and tnt, but with
brisk and gusty ely winds expected.



A Small Craft Advisory is in effect into Sunday afternoon for
persistent and gusty ely winds and high waves.



Lowered dew points several degrees Sunday away from Lake Michigan,
as good low level mixing and ample sunshine should bring very low
relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range. Easterly
winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph at


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Sunday through Friday...Wood is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.